[Football] Cash out?

Mtoto · Feb 9, 2016

Problem with that is the initial bet wasn't on Betfair. He says he's short of cash, and will need to find just over £3k to lay £1300 on Betfair, and keep it locked up until May.

When it comes to Deal or No Deal, I think the banker's offers are actually calculated very cleverly, taking into account the well-established risk-aversion of the average human in situations like this one. In simple terms, people tend to want about 2-1 against before they will take an even-money chance. This, as any seasoned punter will tell you, is the stuff of fantasy when you're betting, in particular since the arrival of Betfair to highlight any minor ricks that do emerge.

8ace · Feb 9, 2016

Mtoto said:
If they were to get spanked - and don't forget that Arsenal are odds-on to win, and have the quality to do it - then the tiny handful of punters who have a big price about Leicester will be itching to take anything they can get.

Even paying out the full five grand if he lets it run will simply be a minor irritation for a bookie who will otherwise have enjoyed a season for the ages. Leicester have come down in price due to results, not because people are backing them. Even now, a majority of football fans don't expect them to win it, and the odds agree. They are not even clear favourites. If Leicester do go on to win, countless thousands of pre-season bets - accas, Yankees, outrights, the lot - are guaranteed to stay in the bag.

The bookie is the one in a position of power. They don't need to do anything. It's the punter who is desperate, to get something more out of Leicester's season than a five-quid loss and the thought of what might have been. As a result, a bookie's cash out offer is always going to be as low as they can get away with (and £1,300 is, as these things go, actually very fair).

I saw something the other day that the bookies are staring down the barrel if Leicester win, didn't believe it myself - sounds like some BS Slimon Clare from Corals would spout.

Triggaaar · Feb 9, 2016

Mtoto said:
Problem with that is the initial bet wasn't on Betfair. He says he's short of cash, and will need to find just over £3k to lay £1300 on Betfair, and keep it locked up until May.

He's getting married right, so he should have some saved up for the wedding. Since it's a guaranteed return, he should use some of that to lay the bet, and walk away with something more like £1500.

Tom Hark Preston Park · Feb 9, 2016

Brownstuff said:
Partial cash out is the way to go as above
Personally I would cash out for about £500 and let the rest ride

Agree. That would give the lad the best of both worlds, he'd have the peace of mind knowing that he'd already taken the bookies for the equivalent of a 100/1 winner for his £5 stake and still have a major stake riding on his team that could win him a whole lot more. It's the stuff of punting dreams!

Pinkie Brown · Feb 9, 2016

Its a tricky one. Do you hold your nerve or do you play safe? I've come out on top with cashing out in the past plus also caught a cold by not. Should they beat Arsenal and Spurs slip up at the weekend they will be sitting pretty. It would be theirs to lose. You'd probably be kicking yourself for cashing out. Then again, if things don't go their way? Decisions, decisions eh.

The option of cashing out then laying back some of the winnings sounds a plan. Not even the most one eyed Leicester fan would have expected them to be in the position they find themselves. £1300 is still decent for what was a bet with the heart rather than the head back in pre season.

zeemeeuw · Feb 9, 2016

Triggaaar said:
He's getting married right, so he should have some saved up for the wedding. Since it's a guaranteed return, he should use some of that to lay the bet, and walk away with something more like £1500.

"Darling, I'm just going to take £3k out of our wedding fund to underwrite by bet on the footie" ... like that is going to work.

Triggaaar · Feb 9, 2016

zeemeeuw said:
"Darling, I'm just going to take £3k out of our wedding fund to underwrite by bet on the footie" ... like that is going to work.

Of course it should bloody work, it's a guaranteed return. Or do you think she'd prefer him just to leave his £5 on and end up with nothing?

Marshy · Feb 9, 2016

I would let it ride over the weekend, however if i was him cashing in is the right call.

kevo · Feb 9, 2016

Cash out. Keep the grand, put £300 back on them winning.

CHAPPERS · Feb 9, 2016

He shouldn't even contemplate chasing out. Leicester have got an excellent run of games and are only concentrating on the league.

Mtoto · Feb 9, 2016

8ace said:
I saw something the other day that the bookies are staring down the barrel if Leicester win, didn't believe it myself - sounds like some BS Slimon Clare from Corals would spout.

If a 5,000-1 chance goes in and they don't end the season with a much bigger pile of money than they started it with, they are in the wrong business. Leicester have been doing them favours on the weekly coupons all year too, last weekend - when Man City were 1.6 was it? - being only the most recent example.

Pevenseagull · Feb 9, 2016

cash out, hope Arsenal beat them at the weekend then put £300 back on when the odds have lengthened.

I write this on the basis that I really don't think Leicester will win the title.

Moshe Gariani · Feb 9, 2016

Triggaaar said:
Of course it should bloody work, it's a guaranteed return. Or do you think she'd prefer him just to leave his £5 on and end up with nothing?

Are you married?

zeemeeuw · Feb 9, 2016

Triggaaar said:
Of course it should bloody work, it's a guaranteed return. Or do you think she's prefer him just to leave his £5 on, and end up with nothing?

I know that but it's trying to get his Fiancee's buy-in that's probably not going to work, even if he can explain the maths.

... and is it guaranteed? ... what if Betfair went bust between now and May whilst holding his 3 grand? Unlikely I know but not impossible.

Moshe Gariani · Feb 9, 2016

zeemeeuw said:
I know that but it's trying to get his Fiancee's buy-in that's probably not going to work, even if he can explain the maths.

... and is it guaranteed? ... what if Betfair went bust between now and May whilst holding his 3 grand? Unlikely I know but not impossible.

I suspect you ARE married...

Love the line about "What if Betfair went bust between now and May?". Could add something like "What if you forget your Betfair password and aren't able to get the money back out when we need it?"

Psychobilly freakout · Feb 9, 2016

StonehamPark said:
I'd be going for Option C: Not Yet

Next 5 games; Arsenal, Norwich, W Brom, Watford & Newcastle.
10-12 points wouldn't be too much an ask for Leicester at the moment.

I would expect 9 points from that list of 5 and then with only 8 games to go I think you would have to cash out although Tottenham have Europe and a tuff run in the league themselves. Man Citys next few games are really hard Tottenham, Chelsea and Liverpool for those reasons I would stick for now at least the next 4 games...

They could actually really do it, and in the grand scheme of things if it was my money I would look at the £1300 and think will that really change my life, yes it would help and pay off an overdraft with money to spare, but actually make difference not really but £5000.00 yes that would £3000.00 minimum is my cash out point.

Mtoto · Feb 9, 2016

CHAPPERS said:
He shouldn't even contemplate chasing out. Leicester have got an excellent run of games and are only concentrating on the league.

Everyone knows about Leicester's schedule though, and even what price they are for the next few games (4.75 to beat Arsenal, 1.5 to beat Norwich and 1.55 vs WBA), but they still have about a 29pc chance of finishing on top. That's not simply my opinion, it's the view of thousands of punters, including plenty who know a lot more about football than I do, all boiled down into a price of 3.45 on Betfair. If your view differs significantly from that, it is as near to certain as makes no difference that you are wrong and Betfair is right (regardless of what actually happens in the end).

Which isn't to say that he should definitely cash out though. It's called gambling, after all, and everyone has their own way of doing it.

mejonaNO12 aka riskit · Feb 9, 2016

Cash out.

They face Arsenal away this weekend. A loss to Arsenal will see his cash out option DISINTEGRATE.

In a situation where £1300 didn't mean ALL that much to you, you could be tempted to play on. But when he is able to actually list what the money could go towards, well you have to take it,

zeemeeuw · Feb 9, 2016

Moshe Gariani said:
I suspect you ARE married...

Love the line about "What if Betfair went bust between now and May?". Could add something like "What if you forget your Betfair password and aren't able to get the money back out when we need it?"

.... yes I am and there's no way I'd convince her it was a good idea .... especially if £1300 cash was being waved in front of her right now.

Mackenzie · Feb 9, 2016

Nice position to be in. I'd probably cash out then have another look after they lose to Arsenal.

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