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General Election 2017



G

Gwylan

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
31,339
Uffern
Buzzer said:
I'm a bit puzzled by Lord Ashcroft's predictions He's got

Pavilion - Labour chance of winning 76%
Kemptown - Labour chance of winning 58%
Hove - Labour chance of winning 68%

Lewes - Con chance of winning 89%
Eastbourne - Con chance of winning 94%
Hastings - Con chance of winning 87%
Crawley - Con chance of winning 90%

According to him it is extremely likely that Labour will unseat Caroline Lucas and only a bit more than a 50:50 chance of winning Kirby's seat.
Click to expand...

What's even stranger is that many people in Pavilion think there's a good chance that the Tories could overtake Labour and come second (and most bookies have them as second favourite). Ashcroft is out on a limb here

But if does think it, he can get 16-1 on Labour winning the seat, that's good odds for something he thinks is 76% likely
 




8

8049

Well-known member
Jan 26, 2015
329
Berkshire
Bry Nylon said:
Not much of choice is it? I can't recall a time with such a dearth of political talent and lack of inspirational vision in any party.

I have always voted, happily and decisively, but for the first time ever I am a total loss as to what to do.

Only 4 candidates standing in my constituency: Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and UKIP.

Labour I discount immediately. I wouldn't be adverse to voting Labour under different circumstances, but I can't endorse Corbyn and McDonnell. Similarly, no way will I vote Lib Dem or UKIP. So that leaves the Conservatives.

Again, I wouldn't be adverse to voting Conservative - it is probably the natural home for my vote. But they have run an appalling campaign in a totally unnecessary election called purely for Mrs May's benefit and not the country's. Put simply, I don't believe they deserve my vote this time so why should I give it to them.

I can't NOT vote, so hence my being at a total loss. I still believe a 'spoilt' ballot 'is the best way I can register my complete exasperation with this whole sorry state of affairs. And for me, that is a crying shame.

Maybe I'll have a moment of clarity on my way to the polling station tomorrow morning and find myself able to make a positive choice, but time is running out...
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I'm in exactly the same position. We are facing unprecedented challenges (Brexit, technology, climate, etc, etc) but all we get is Labour wanting to take us back to the 70s, the Tories to the 50s (not sure if it's the 1950s or 1850s), UKIP to the 1930s and LibDems to the day before the EU referendum.

Did a little bit of research which suggested that leaving a ballot blank is a better option as if you make a mark, the candidates can argue over whether the mark is an indication of having voted for them. Of course, that relies on trusting that the paper won't be tampered with but if you don't trust that then there's not really any point in voting at all. I'm also in the unfortunate position of being in Theresa May's constituency so my vote - spoilt or otherwise - is pretty much meaningless.
 


B

Brovion

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 6, 2003
19,374
The Large One said:
Nancy Platts was an excellent candidate.

Instead of putting more resources into winning that marginal seat, Labour put a lot of effort into unseating Caroline Lucas - and it backfired. Twice over.
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Yeah, well they've certainly learnt that lesson. I always say I vote Labour even if the candidate is the proverbial pig's bladder on a stick. This time not only have they not bothered campaigning they haven't even given us the pig's bladder on a stick. With the lack of election literature I had to do my own research and I found out that the Labour candidate is a 20 year old student! That's like Brighton fielding the youth team in our first PL fixture.

I guess they've concentrated all their efforts on Kemptown. Fair enough I suppose, but I'm still pissed off from a personal view. I hope in her acceptance speech Lucas has the grace to sincerely thank Labour for not competing against her.
 


nicko31

nicko31

Well-known member
Jan 7, 2010
17,608
Gods country fortnightly






Eeyore

Eeyore

Colonel Hee-Haw of Queen's Park
NSC Patron
Apr 5, 2014
23,585
Buzzer said:
I'm a bit puzzled by Lord Ashcroft's predictions He's got

Pavilion - Labour chance of winning 76%
Kemptown - Labour chance of winning 58%
Hove - Labour chance of winning 68%

Lewes - Con chance of winning 89%
Eastbourne - Con chance of winning 94%
Hastings - Con chance of winning 87%
Crawley - Con chance of winning 90%

According to him it is extremely likely that Labour will unseat Caroline Lucas and only a bit more than a 50:50 chance of winning Kirby's seat. Those figures for the only other 4 Sussex seats with a chance of an upset also surprise me. Is it really that unlikely that Lewes and Eastbourne won't revert to the Lib Dems?

https://dashboards.lordashcroftpoll....aspx?RId=²&RLId=²&PId=±´ºµ´&UId=´¹¹¹¼&RpId=2
Click to expand...

Ashcroft doesn't seem to be taking 'local' factors in to account. Labour have a paper candidate in Pavilion. I think the Tories could get second there. Expect Lucas to pick up just under 50% of the vote this time.
 


Official Old Man

Official Old Man

Uckfield Seagull
Aug 27, 2011
8,557
Brighton
For the last few years Sky have had a 'behind the scenes' show running on Sky Arts where they have cameras throught the studio. Was always interesting to see how the pictures got to the screen. Not sure if they are doing it this time though.
 


pb21

pb21

Well-known member
Apr 23, 2010
6,315
Winker said:
If Lucas wins, can all those in her constituency who didn't vote for her, ask for another election?
Click to expand...

Yes, and you'll get it in at least 5 years, or possibly later this year knowing May's record of calling elections. Isn't democracy wonderful.
 




Titanic

Titanic

Super Moderator
Helpful Moderator
Jul 5, 2003
39,098
West Sussex
What will be this year's 'Were you up for...' moment?

After Portillo and Balls... who could it be? I am hoping for SNP's Angus Robertson in Moray. But could it be even higher profile??
 


Westdene Seagull

Westdene Seagull

aka Cap'n Carl Firecrotch
NSC Patron
Oct 27, 2003
21,025
The arse end of Hangleton
HantsSeagull said:
I expect Peter Kyle is a nice chap and good local MP - but every vote for him is a vote for Corbyn to run this country.
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No it's not. I'm voting Kyle not because I support Corbyn ( I definitely don't ) but the national parties are a disgrace so I'm returning back to what constituency voting was meant to be about - voting for the person that will best stand up for your constituency. I'm sure as hell not voting for a religious nutter.
 


Westdene Seagull

Westdene Seagull

aka Cap'n Carl Firecrotch
NSC Patron
Oct 27, 2003
21,025
The arse end of Hangleton
TSB said:
Personally I'm hoping that the 3-and a bit-thousand who voted UKIP will stay home tomorrow. If 75% vote Tory then we've five years of God-fearing bollocks.
Click to expand...

I voted UKIP and am voting Kyle this time - want me to stay at home ? You know what assuming does ?
 




Herr Tubthumper

Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
59,581
The Fatherland
Titanic said:
What will be this year's 'Were you up for...' moment?

After Portillo and Balls... who could it be? I am hoping for SNP's Angus Robertson in Moray. But could it be even higher profile??
Click to expand...

Amber getting dumped by Hastings!
 


Westdene Seagull

Westdene Seagull

aka Cap'n Carl Firecrotch
NSC Patron
Oct 27, 2003
21,025
The arse end of Hangleton
HantsSeagull said:
you are clearly a labour voter - i won't waste my time. Good luck tomorrow.
Click to expand...

**Splutter** ...... he's a GREEN. Just look at all the times someone criticises the Greens ( especially the disaster of a Green council we had ) and see who ALWAYS comes to their defence.
 








Kuipers Supporters Club

Kuipers Supporters Club

Well-known member
Feb 10, 2009
5,640
GOSBTS
Bozza said:
In just over 24 hours the fun will all begin with the exit polls being published to a waiting nation and it becomes very much "game on" for those who have plans to go through the night and see the drama unfold.

As I get older, I struggle more with these now so for the first time ever I'm contemplating trying to see if I can get a couple of hours sleep before kick-off.

I'm also questioning whether my usual approach to drink my way through is wise. Maybe I'll have greater endurance if I steer clear of the booze.

I'll eat my body weight in crisps though. That's a given.

Who's planning to go through the night, or most of it, and what is your plan of attack?
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Going to an election count - taking a picnic!
 


Pinkie Brown

Pinkie Brown

I'll look after the skirt
Sep 5, 2007
3,543
Neues Zeitalter DDR
pasty said:
Yup, BBC all the way.

Whenever there is the same event being covered by both BBC and ITV, does anyone actually watch ITV? Even thinking as far back as when the Cup Final was just about the only live football on the tellybox, I never, ever watched it on ITV.
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I understand Osborne is part of the ITV coverage team. He shouldn't have any issue's with staying awake all night........
 


mikeyjh

mikeyjh

Well-known member
Dec 17, 2008
4,489
Llanymawddwy
Go to bed early - Get up early, depressed at the result, to go and see the last surviving member of my close family, my alzheimer's ridden mother and probably not explain to her that at some point we'll have to mortgage her house to some speculator who May will appoint at a very generous rate I'm sure to suck the last vestige of dignity from her life.
 




Tricky Dicky

Tricky Dicky

New member
Jul 27, 2004
13,558
Sunny Shoreham
Bozza said:
In just over 24 hours the fun will all begin with the exit polls being published to a waiting nation and it becomes very much "game on" for those who have plans to go through the night and see the drama unfold.

As I get older, I struggle more with these now so for the first time ever I'm contemplating trying to see if I can get a couple of hours sleep before kick-off.

I'm also questioning whether my usual approach to drink my way through is wise. Maybe I'll have greater endurance if I steer clear of the booze.

I'll eat my body weight in crisps though. That's a given.

Who's planning to go through the night, or most of it, and what is your plan of attack?
Click to expand...

I am hoping to, but the reality is that I won't get far. I'll start with good intentions of making at least the early hours, but predict I'll be asleep probably before the polls close.
 




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