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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]



Peteinblack

Peteinblack

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jun 3, 2004
3,618
Bath, Somerset.
casbom said:
...for the first half of Jan yes, however it could be more wintry in the last half of Jan onwards. With a SSW in the offing this could help all that cold air over Siberia head our way later in Jan.
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Wouldn't a SSW (I'm assuming you mean South South-West, unless you're using a meteorological acronym I'm not familiar with!) keep the cold air over Siberia well away from us - surely we would need a flow from an easterly quarter to pull in cold air from Siberia or central Europe, and at the moment, this seems highly unlikely - sadly?
 




casbom

casbom

Well-known member
Jul 24, 2007
2,581
Peteinblack said:
Wouldn't a SSW (I'm assuming you mean South South-West, unless you're using a meteorological acronym I'm not familiar with!) keep the cold air over Siberia well away from us - surely we would need a flow from an easterly quarter to pull in cold air from Siberia or central Europe, and at the moment, this seems highly unlikely - sadly?
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Sorry yeah a SSW is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming, where the temp up in the Strat (which controls the Polar Vortex which gives us our wet n windy weather for the next two weeks) will rise significantly, which in turn provides the ingredients for High level blocking, if this is in the right place (ideally over Greenland) then we'll get better chance of seeing those bitter East/North Easterly winds.

There is a lag effect of around two to three weeks for a SSW to take effect. It's due to "happen" around 7th - 10th Jan.

Obviously nothing is guaranteed in Weather but this will hopefully be our best chance to see some of the white stuff!
 


Peteinblack

Peteinblack

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jun 3, 2004
3,618
Bath, Somerset.
casbom said:
Sorry yeah a SSW is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming, where the temp up in the Strat (which controls the Polar Vortex which gives us our wet n windy weather for the next two weeks) will rise significantly, which in turn provides the ingredients for High level blocking, if this is in the right place (ideally over Greenland) then we'll get better chance of seeing those bitter East/North Easterly winds.

There is a lag effect of around two to three weeks for a SSW to take effect. It's due to "happen" around 7th - 10th Jan.

Obviously nothing is guaranteed in Weather but this will hopefully be our best chance to see some of the white stuff!
Click to expand...

Ah, thanks; I'd not heard of that before!

Chris Hughton appointed, and signs in the upper atmosphere of a potential easterly cold spell in a couple of weeks' time - what a promising final day of 2014!
 




Muhammed - I’m hard - Bruce Lee

Muhammed - I’m hard - Bruce Lee

You can't change fighters
NSC Patron
Jul 25, 2005
10,851
on a pig farm
casbom said:
Sorry yeah a SSW is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming

There is a lag effect of around two to three weeks for a SSW to take effect
Click to expand...
Shouldn't they rename it then? Not very sudden is it? :lolol::lolol::lolol:
 






S

Soulman

New member
Oct 22, 2012
10,966
Sompting
Weststander said:
2 weeks of (tedious) mild weather ahead for Sussex, according to reliable meteorological websites. No snow and barely a frost in sight.

Thank god for visits to the Alps each winter, to get my fix of snow.
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Good news if correct, a concrete site with no windows after Xmas is nothing to look forward to. Have fun on the piste.
 


Flex Your Head

Flex Your Head

Well-known member
Jun 16, 2011
1,678
Seagull firmly in Eagle territory
casbom said:
Sorry yeah a SSW is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming, where the temp up in the Strat (which controls the Polar Vortex which gives us our wet n windy weather for the next two weeks) will rise significantly, which in turn provides the ingredients for High level blocking, if this is in the right place (ideally over Greenland) then we'll get better chance of seeing those bitter East/North Easterly winds.

There is a lag effect of around two to three weeks for a SSW to take effect. It's due to "happen" around 7th - 10th Jan.

Obviously nothing is guaranteed in Weather but this will hopefully be our best chance to see some of the white stuff!
Click to expand...

Any update on this at all? The Met Office long term forecast looks rather insipid and uninspiring:

UK Outlook for Saturday 10 Jan 2015 to Monday 19 Jan 2015:

Rain clearing southwards on Saturday followed by brighter, colder, showery conditions through the rest of the weekend, showers most frequent in the north and west, wintry over hills, and to lower levels in the north. Windy, with severe gales and possible storm force winds in the far north at first. Mild in the south at first, otherwise rather cold with overnight frost. Another bout of wet and windy weather is likely to spread eastwards across the UK early next week. Thereafter, the weather will alternate between spells of wet and windy weather, and colder, brighter, more showery interludes. Often windy, with gales in places, the risk of severe gales in exposed areas. Temperatures will vary, often above average in unsettled spells, and generally below normal with the clearer conditions.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 20 Jan 2015 to Tuesday 3 Feb 2015:

The most likely scenario is for conditions through the latter part of January onwards into early February to remain unsettled and often windy with periods of milder but dull and wet weather, interspersed by brief clearer but colder and showery spells with frosty nights. Towards the end of this period drier and more settled conditions may start to become a little more dominant across southern Britain.

Still way too early to write this winter off, but not looking too hopeful for fans of the cold and bright / snowy stuff right now.
 






Papa Lazarou

Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,870
Worthing
Nothing exciting in the outlook. After an unsettled week I'd expect a high pressure near the UK, so frost and fog may be a problem.

There has been an outside chance of proper cold but we're taking 10% at the moment.

Papa
 


N

Napper

Well-known member
Jul 9, 2003
23,874
Sussex
This winter is turning into a very non descript event.

1 week of nice cold weather. Other than that just grey and mild.
 




V

Vegas Seagull

New member
Jul 10, 2009
7,782
Vegas Seagull said:
The last chart on here for the 5th showed snow fir 14th Sunday two days ago..
9 days + IS guesswork, however hard you try to call a change it's far less likely than no change.
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Same as it ever was then another 10/15 day forecast (guesswork) of minuses blown away (literally). Kite flying this weekend, anyone?
 








D

Deleted member 22389

Guest
Will be the same as last year. Think we need write off any chances of getting snow this year.
 


casbom

casbom

Well-known member
Jul 24, 2007
2,581
There is currently a minor SSW happening but within a week the Polar Vortex is back in one piece which means a continuation of the westerly's with colder blips now and again before the next system comes in.

At this stage it's looking like Jan is a write off for cold as the jet is too strong, so we'll probably be looking to Feb now for any chance of snow, what a depressing thought! Haven't seen a snowflake now since Apr 13!
 












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