Baldseagull
Well-known member
When the currency makes the biggest one day fall in it's history, plummet is a fair word to use.
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[Politics] Brexit
- Thread starter KingstonSeagull
- Start date
When the currency makes the biggest one day fall in it's history, plummet is a fair word to use.
Lincoln Imp
Well-known member
- Feb 2, 2009
- 5,964
The term 'undemocratic loons' referenced JCFCPasta's standard description for anyone who wants a referendum on the deal. The numbers of these have been rising and by June were up to 42 percent of adults, two percent more than those who didn't want to be consulted. I am sorry if I didn't make that clear.
Garry Nelson's teacher
Well-known member
But we do now know that there are dire predictions of the fate of the economy if we pursue Brexit. You weren't to know about the banking crisis but we are now in possession of forecasts. If you had these and ignored them when you made your purchase then you'd have been a fool. You didn't and you weren't; you were unlucky. But this is different. There is no automatic mechanism in the economy that will stabilize it; bounce back at a macro level is not inevitable and no more likely than a downward spiral.
Garry Nelson's teacher
Well-known member
Ok. But the vagaries of the currency are being triggered by the mere signals that we are edging towards Brexit (especially a no deal version). Should this transpire then one would expect the market reaction to be even more volatile; unless it's being priced-in early.
larus
Well-known member
Seeing as you joined the discussion late, the original point made was that GBP had fallen from 1.6 to 1.1.
I pointed out that, apart from a short period (12 months around 2015) when the rate was above 1.3 and PEAKED at 1.44, the average rate in the last 10 years was circa 1.20 - 1.25 (a visual impression from the 10 year chart). To try to say that the drop from 1.6 to 1.1 was linked to Brexit is pathetic. The rate of 1.6 was more than 10 frigging years ago. Based on that logic, I suppose Brexit is to blame for the drop in value of the GBP from $4 to the current rebate of $1.3. Or maybe Brexit is to blame for Hong-Kong being returned to the Chinese or possibly America gaining indepence from the UK. Anything bad - Blame Brexit. ANything good - despite Brexit.
Also, the chart shows a low in the 10 years of 1.02, so I guess we should be grateful we voted Brexit as its stopped the rate going that low again.
So however you choose to look at it the rate is only slightly below the average of the last 10 years (maybe 15%). If people wish to use short-term gyrations in the daily rate to make judgements on the economic impact of Brexit then they are fools. The impacts will not be felt for years either way. For clarification, I’m ignoring the short-term disruption will will happen when we actually leave which there will of course be.
larus
Well-known member
The assumption that you are making is that the predictions from the Elite are correct.
They were wrong about the EURO (i.e. UK not joining).
They were wrong about the impact of the vote to leave.
But, they are bound to be right now (even though other forecaster dispute their assumptions), because that suits your position?
larus
Well-known member
Actually, the opposite can often happen. In the lead up to the event, markets get jittery. When the event happens they can often bounce the other way as they have overreacted.
For example, when interest rates are expected to rise, the pound strengthens. However, when the rate rise occurs, often the pound will then drop a bit. Same happens in reverse. Markets have a herd mentality and are not rational, which is why contrarian investors often do so well.
Garry Nelson's teacher
Well-known member
Well at least you used the word elite rather than establishment - otherwise it's just the same old/same old, head in sand denial. Please argue with the substance: impaired trading relationship with our key market = loss of growth = loss of jobs = not fun. Can you find any forecast that denies this? Even the Economists for Free Trade concede this in the short term. I've got a feeling you know you are wrong. Why not 'fess up and say 'it's a price worth paying"? If that's what you think then fine. Why such reluctance? It's all rather flat-earth.
Garry Nelson's teacher
Well-known member
I'm no fan of market sentiment, but do you remember the time when Norman Lamont uncoupled the £ from the DM? we were about 3 hours away from total currency melt-down. I'd put Brexit on this level of potential magnitude not a tweak of 0.25% in interest rates. (Please note the word potential.)
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clapham_gull
Legacy Fan
- Aug 20, 2003
- 25,296
2/3 majority is required I think like last time.
Basically as it's the House of Commons call for "bundle", it's usually going to go through.
So one for the remainers:
Would you put up with 4 years of Labour if it meant of a chance of staying in Europe ?
clapham_gull
Legacy Fan
- Aug 20, 2003
- 25,296
That is particularly ridiculous I'm sorry to say. How you can possibly feel "homeless" ?
clapham_gull
Legacy Fan
- Aug 20, 2003
- 25,296
I voted remain, but never felt emotionally attached to a free trading area.
Farehamseagull
Solly March Fan Club
Yes, 100%. And I’ve never voted Labour in my life.
I’d rather someone centre left was leading the party but would put up with Corbyn for a few years if it meant staying in Europe.
GT49er
Well-known member
Well, when your country is gradually dragged into the ultimate EU goal of a United States of Europe what are you supposed to feel? You don't belong to the new one, you do not feel part of it, you have nothing in common with it.
GT49er
Well-known member
Put anything in charge as long as we leave the EU it will be worth it and better than remainng. If we remain the UK ceases to exist, it will no longer be a country we were born and grew up in. Many of us will feel homeless
Hallelujah.
An absolutely embarrassing post, and a perfect example of everything that is wrong with modern day Britain.
Going back a few years, there was a poll on NSC about how we defined ourselves, British, English or European I think were the options. I was quite surprised that a significant minority of people defined themselves as European, so as I used to spend the summers photographing hotels and resorts all over Europe I thought that I'd ask people that I met (usually groups of people in their 20's) how they thought of themselves, whether they thought of themselves firstly as French/German/Spanish etc or as Firstly European. Nobody throughout the summer in the many resorts that I was in defined themselves as European, everyone that I spoke to said they thought of themselves firstly as German/ Spanish/French etc. In fact the French particularly used to get indignant and irritated that the question was even asked.
It's so depressing
- Jul 10, 2003
- 25,766
An absolutely embarrassing post, and a perfect example of everything that is wrong with modern day Britain.
Going back a few years, there was a poll on NSC about how we defined ourselves, British, English or European I think were the options. I was quite surprised that a significant minority of people defined themselves as European, so as I used to spend the summers photographing hotels and resorts all over Europe I thought that I'd ask people that I met (usually groups of people in their 20's) how they thought of themselves, whether they thought of themselves firstly as French/German/Spanish etc or as Firstly European. Nobody throughout the summer in the many resorts that I was in defined themselves as European, everyone that I spoke to said they thought of themselves firstly as German/ Spanish/French etc. In fact the French particularly used to get indignant and irritated that the question was even asked.
It's so depressing
I bet your partner's looking forward to your next holiday
I bet your partner's looking forward to your next holiday
Yeah, she most certainly is.
It's a six month trip taking in India, Myanmar, Phillipines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia and a months work in New Zealand