[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]

Yes I know, it is 7c average, but in 40 years we have never had 51 consecutive days of winter at or above 8c and often nearer 12c.

Uncle Spielberg said:

Yes I know, it is 7c average, but in 40 years we have never had 51 consecutive days of winter at or above 8c and often nearer 12c.

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This will come in as one of the mildest winters for a while if this pattern persists, yes.

I feel there's a sting on the tail at some point though.

Papa Lazarou said:

The GFS ensemble is much more hopeful this morning
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=297&y=178

View attachment 50378

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still only a 15/20% chance, so not really going to happen. How can we move the Azore High. All look up and blow hard?

The general model consensus is for Low Pressure next week to dive to our South, this will then drag in cold East to North Easterly winds midweek so there is a chance we could see some snow next week.
What happens after that then no one has a clue. The Atlantic could well bring back the wet windy weather and blow our Scandi High pressure away, or that High pressure could strengthen and keep us locked in for cold easterlies, OR Low Pressures continue to dive South East over or just West of the Uk with us in the SE staying on the cold side with lots of snow!! Ok that's what i want to happen (and it is a possibility) but at this stage I just want to see some snow, next week is the best chance yet!

It's snowing outside my window.

chucky1973 said:

still only a 15/20% chance, so not really going to happen. How can we move the Azore High. All look up and blow hard?

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Yes, over the past few years I've not posted in this thread when the percentage was this low, but this year's been so rubbish in terms of snow my posting threshold has gradually lowered.
[MENTION=7321]casbom[/MENTION] - I don't think it's anywhere near 'nailed on' to happen that way- as the interaction with the Azores High will influence just how much of the low pressure makes it to our SE, the more the better to generate an Easterly.

The Scandi highs have been so pathetic this year, almost nearing writing off snow for this year. The worst scenario would be a late winter in March...by then I would be fed up with it and wanting it to warm up!

This winter has felt like the 90's winters. Mild and windy and waking up to hear England being thrashed in the Ashes!

LU7 RED said:

The Scandi highs have been so pathetic this year, almost nearing writing off snow for this year. The worst scenario would be a late winter in March...by then I would be fed up with it and wanting it to warm up!

This winter has felt like the 90's winters. Mild and windy and waking up to hear England being thrashed in the Ashes!

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Yes, I do not want a repeat of last year when most of March (into beginning of April) was characterised by a persistent, bitterly cold Easterly flow and snow.

I'd like this now, please, but not in two months time, when it ought to be warming up.

Lyndhurst 14 said:

I like the way the Weather Channel in the States has now started to give names to blizzards, winter storms etc. This seems to be a marketing ploy to drum up interest and try to make people think it’s the end of the world when it’s just a normal winter event. The latest one forecast is ‘Anus'and is expected to dump up to 10” of snow on New York City this afternoon / evening.

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Eek!

LU7 RED said:

The Scandi highs have been so pathetic this year, almost nearing writing off snow for this year. The worst scenario would be a late winter in March...by then I would be fed up with it and wanting it to warm up!

This winter has felt like the 90's winters. Mild and windy and waking up to hear England being thrashed in the Ashes!

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Totally agree. Last winter was bad for my allotment, everything had to wait until June to start growing. Having said that we do need some cold winter weather to kill off bugs etc.

I think February may deliver something as long as the Azores high backs off for a while.

Strange to see the clouds blowing over from a southerly direction. I take it it's going to be mild for a while.

First flakes of the year falling in Hove. Very light and a bit sleety though.

Northstand CAT said:

First flakes of the year falling in Hove. Very light and a bit sleety though.

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I'd be surprised if there was snow falling tonight, it's too warm, both down here and at higher levels in the atmosphere

Thermometer showed 5c, was definitely sleet/snow around 11pm. Just looked outside again it's raining heavier and temperature is now showing 7c.

Not sure how there could be any snow/sleet around tonight - atmosphere is way too warm (by at least 6 or 7C). Could have been graupel or something - saw some reports of that and hail up north.

(As measured at Herstmonceux at midnight, the 2nd and 3rd columns show height and temperature)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT THTA THTE THTV
hPa m C C % g/kg deg knot K K K
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1002.0 52 6.0 4.1 88 5.15 190 12 279.0 293.3 279.9
1000.0 68 6.0 3.6 85 4.98 186 13 279.1 293.0 280.0
986.0 183 5.0 3.2 88 4.91 160 22 279.3 293.0 280.1
974.0 283 4.2 2.9 91 4.86 160 26 279.4 293.0 280.3
957.0 427 3.0 2.4 96 4.78 170 25 279.6 293.0 280.4
949.0 495 2.6 2.1 96 4.70 175 24 279.9 293.1 280.7
936.0 606 2.0 1.5 96 4.58 180 32 280.4 293.2 281.2
935.0 615 2.0 1.5 96 4.59 180 33 280.5 293.4 281.3
925.0 702 2.6 1.9 95 4.77 185 26 282.0 295.4 282.8
923.0 720 3.0 2.0 93 4.82 185 25 282.5 296.2 283.4
922.0 728 3.2 2.1 92 4.85 184 25 282.8 296.6 283.7
912.0 817 2.7 1.3 91 4.64 175 21 283.2 296.4 284.0
903.0 897 2.2 0.6 89 4.45 176 22 283.5 296.2 284.3
882.0 1087 0.8 0.2 96 4.42 180 25 283.9 296.5 284.7
877.0 1133 0.4 0.1 98 4.41 179 25 284.0 296.6 284.8
854.0 1345 -1.0 -1.9 94 3.93 175 24 284.7 296.0 285.3
850.0 1383 -1.3 -2.2 94 3.85 180 25 284.8 295.9 285.4
845.0 1430 -1.7 -2.6 94 3.75 186 26 284.8 295.7 285.5
841.0 1468 -1.2 -6.1 69 2.89 190 27 285.8 294.3 286.3
839.0 1487 -0.9 -7.9 59 2.53 191 27 286.2 293.8 286.7
824.0 1631 -2.1 -4.4 84 3.36 197 26 286.5 296.3 287.1
813.0 1737 -2.1 -3.6 89 3.62 202 25 287.6 298.2 288.2
806.0 1806 -2.6 -3.3 95 3.74 205 25 287.7 298.7 288.4
802.0 1846 -2.9 -3.1 99 3.81 205 25 287.8 299.0 288.5
785.0 2015 -3.3 -4.1 94 3.61 205 24 289.2 299.8 289.8
775.0 2117 -2.9 -10.9 54 2.16 205 24 290.7 297.3 291.1
769.0 2178 -3.1 -8.5 66 2.63 205 24 291.1 299.0 291.5
765.0 2220 -3.3 -6.9 76 2.99 210 23 291.3 300.3 291.8
752.0 2355 -4.3 -4.7 97 3.60 225 20 291.7 302.4 292.3
736.0 2525 -4.7 -5.3 95 3.51 215 18 293.1 303.6 293.7
734.0 2546 -4.7 -5.4 95 3.50 217 18 293.2 303.8 293.9
726.0 2632 -5.3 -6.0 95 3.38 225 17 293.5 303.7 294.1
721.0 2687 -5.5 -6.5 93 3.28 230 17 293.9 303.8 294.5
716.0 2741 -5.7 -7.0 91 3.17 222 16 294.2 303.9 294.8
708.0 2829 -6.4 -7.5 92 3.09 210 15 294.4 303.8 295.0
700.0 2918 -7.1 -8.0 93 3.00 220 15 294.6 303.8 295.1

Northstand CAT said:

First flakes of the year falling in Hove. Very light and a bit sleety though.

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were you on the last night?

You learn something new everyday. I didn't know what graupel was until a moment ago.

Here's to another 16 year period without significant snowfall. Used to love the stuff but was robbed of it through my childhood and have suffered two injuries, one serious and permanent, as a result of the stuff in the last few years.

johnhammond said:

936.0 606 2.0 1.5 96 4.58 180 32 280.4 293.2 281.2
935.0 615 2.0 1.5 96 4.59 180 33 280.5 293.4 281.3
925.0 702 2.6 1.9 95 4.77 185 26 282.0 295.4 282.8
923.0 720 3.0 2.0 93 4.82 185 25 282.5 296.2 283.4
922.0 728 3.2 2.1 92 4.85 184 25 282.8 296.6 283.7
912.0 817 2.7 1.3 91 4.64 175 21 283.2 296.4 284.0

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This.

No idea what this is. But this.