[Politics] Brexit

Baldseagull said:

If you multiply £4300 by the number of UK households, you get the figure that represents a 6.2% difference in expected GDP's from Remaining and Leaving and striking a Canada style FTA. It isn't a lie, it is an indication of how much better or worse off the country would be. I doubt we will end up in a Canada style FTA with the EU, but it was/is one of the possibilities, there were other assessments, one on a Norway model, one on a Swiss model, one on Canada style and one on No Deal and WTO trading terms. Of those I think a Canada style FTA was/is preferred by most Leave campaigners, and the figures this produced were not as bad as the No Deal, WTO model, so I think it a fair model to take as representative.

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portslade seagull said:

It was a lie. It was also 4300 per worker not household.

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Triggaaar said:

May's deal would mean free trade, as we currently have. The Bank of England estimate that our GDP could be 1% lower after 5 years' time than if we had remained in. So if 6.2% is £4,300, then 1% would be under £700.

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beorhthelm said:

really have to point out here that the BoE estimate is GDP increase would be 1% lower. if forecast in EU is 1.5% pa, after years GDP growth is 7.5, the BoE prediction is that outside the EU would be 6.5%.

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The Bank of England said on Wednesday that GDP would have been at least 1% higher in five years’ time if the UK had voted to remain, while an official Whitehall analysis concluded that in all Brexit scenarios, including May’s final deal, the UK would be worse off.

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Official figures say the UK economy could be up to 3.9% smaller after 15 years under Theresa May's Brexit plan, compared with staying in the EU.

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Baker lite said:

I think we should have a second Chillcot enquiry, I wasn’t happy with last one..

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Triggaaar said:

It was a lie, and I will detail why.

Firstly, the figure is wrong. The figure is looking at GDP per household - total GDP, divided by the number of households. However, that is not how you measure the actual amount each household gets. GDP is currently about £1.8tn a year which divided by 27 million households gives you £66,667 per household. But the average household income is about £44,000. So you can't attribute a drop in GDP to a drop in household income on a pound for pound basis. So it's a complete lie.

Secondly, it's an estimate on what could happen were we to take a deal that we're not likely to take. The poster doesn't say 'households could be £x worse off if we follow the Canada deal', it says that the cost to UK families will be £4,300 if we leave the EU. The poster acts like that is a fact, when clearly it isn't (even if the figure was correct, which it isn't).

Lastly, regarding the poster, the Treasury Select Committee said:
“Neither government departments nor other spokespeople for the remain side should repeat [this] mistaken assertion… to persist with this claim would be to misrepresent the Treasury’s own work.’

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Tubby-McFat-Fuc said:

Er, your rambling. A few commas might help me understand what the **** you are trying to say.

Is this what you are trying to say??


View attachment 103056

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JC Footy Genius said:

UK to remain in Common Transit Convention after Brexit

Continued membership of the convention will ensure simplified cross-border trade for UK businesses exporting their goods.....The UK is currently a member of the CTC while it is in the EU, and has successfully negotiated membership in its own right after Brexit. This would apply to any new trading relationship with the EU or in the unlikely event of a no deal.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-remain-in-common-transit-convention-after-brexit

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JC Footy Genius said:

Indication? .... No, it's a complete guess about the long-term from the very same people who can't even accurately predict six months in advance (see immediate impact of the vote = recession, 500,000 more unemployed).' ...the same people who regularly make predictions/ forecasts that are completely wrong. The same people that proved so untrustworthy/politically manipulated that the OBR was established. (btw the OBR aren't much better).

Fair model ' .. my hairy arse

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pb21 said:

What if May's deal was amended such that if the backstop was implemented the amount that the UK owed was immediately halved and then reduced by £30 million/day.

That would incentivise the EU into preventing the backstop occurring and then minimising the duration it lasts for.

Edit: the savings could also be explicitly ring fenced for NHS spending in parliament legislation.

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clapham_gull said:

Think I've solved it. An AV style vote of:

1) Stay
2) Leave
3) None of the above.

Sent from my BLA-L09 using Tapatalk

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CHAPPERS said:

[tweet]1074372746384166920[/tweet]

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Plooks said:

No AV though. Biggest vote share wins.

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CHAPPERS said:

[tweet]1074372746384166920[/tweet]

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