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[Albion] 22% Chance of Relegation - Magic Pts Total is



Triggaaar

Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
50,171
Goldstone
Perkino said:
3 more wins could be enough
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But it's taken us 20 games against non top 6 to get 6 wins, and we only have 6 similar games left. And one of those is away to Everton.
 




Blue Valkyrie

Blue Valkyrie

Not seen such Bravery!
Sep 1, 2012
32,165
Valhalla
Albion, Palace, West Brom - 6 home games left

Stoke, Swansea, Huddersfield, Newcastle - 5 home games left.

Southampton - 4 home games left.
 


H

Hampster Gull

New member
Dec 22, 2010
13,462
LowKarate said:
I think that is the number now. Especially after Newcastle and Huddersfield both picked up 3 points in Sunday.

Even if 2 teams fall adrift, you've still got to get more points than the 18th placed team and from where we are today with 11 games to go, it is very realistic for most of the teams around us to pick up 3 wins and 2 draws out of 11 games and that would see the mark at around 38 for survival.

We've had a lot of big games lately, but the Swansea one us mahoosive. There are lots of other factors, but given how few genuinely winnable games there are left, I think that if we win that then we will make it OK by the end of the season. If we lose or draw, then we are going to have to put in some performances against the top 9 which we have yet to achieve this far.
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Agreed. I do think though we will get something from a big team before the season is out, as we get more and more desperate for points. All will be good
 


LowKarate

LowKarate

New member
Jan 6, 2004
2,002
Wombling free
Hampster Gull said:
Agreed. I do think though we will get something from a big team before the season is out, as we get more and more desperate for points. All will be good
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Which one? Under the cosmic laws of Internet Football Forums you have to name the team we will beat and then depending on the result, return to this thread and either celebrate your foresight or hang your head in shame.
 


H

Hampster Gull

New member
Dec 22, 2010
13,462
LowKarate said:
Which one? Under the cosmic laws of Internet Football Forums you have to name the team we will beat and then depending on the result, return to this thread and either celebrate your foresight or hang your head in shame.
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We will get three points off Spurs. You heard it here first
 








Eeyore

Eeyore

Colonel Hee-Haw of Queen's Park
NSC Patron
Apr 5, 2014
23,537




bWize

bWize

Well-known member
Nov 6, 2007
1,683
The game at home against Swansea is probably our most important game in a few years. Certainly a 6 pointer and could well be the 3 points that keep us in the PL. I think we have turned the corner with being too passive and feel confident we are have enough fire power and depth and good enough to stay up this season on merit (and not praying for luck around you like most Palace fans every season who always relying on every team around them to be more shit) Which annoyingly they have got away with for at least a few years.
 




Withdean and I

Withdean and I

Well-known member
Aug 6, 2003
1,347
Lose against Swansea and March is really tough. April is worse than March then May [emoji85][emoji85]
 




E

erkan

Well-known member
Dec 9, 2004
896
Eastbourne
crookie said:
3/1 at Betfair, 33%, I'd say this is a more realistic chance than 22% personally.
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Easy mistake to make - but bookie giving odds of 3/1 means they break even if the event happens 25% of the time.

Suggests they think the actual frequency will be at most 20% of the time.

Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk
 


Johnny RoastBeef

Johnny RoastBeef

These aren't the players you're looking for.
Jan 11, 2016
3,157
erkan said:
Easy mistake to make - but bookie giving odds of 3/1 means they break even if the event happens 25% of the time.

Suggests they think the actual frequency will be at most 20% of the time.

Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk
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But the implied probability is 33%, ignoring the bookies overround shenanigans.
 








M

Mo Gosfield

Well-known member
Aug 11, 2010
6,284
Arundel_Seagull said:
The game at home against Swansea is probably our most important game in a few years. Certainly a 6 pointer and could well be the 3 points that keep us in the PL. I think we have turned the corner with being too passive and feel confident we are have enough fire power and depth and good enough to stay up this season on merit (and not praying for luck around you like most Palace fans every season who always relying on every team around them to be more shit) Which annoyingly they have got away with for at least a few years.
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I wish I shared your confidence re putting passivity behind us, particularly away from home but the evidence at St Marys and Bet 365 is that we still let the tempo drop too much and invited both teams onto us. Pellegrino and Lambert both made two changes before we reacted and these changes gave both teams fresh impetus. We are not good enough to keep clean sheets for long periods and in both those two games, we were in control and winning but allowed two struggling teams back in the game.
We have all seen the run of fixtures at the end of the season and the low likely yield of points and this run of games ( Saints/WHU/Stoke/Swansea ) has to be fill yer boots time. We needed a minimum of 7 pts and can still get 8 by beating Swans but it is putting massive pressure on a home game against a bang in form side. One of those away games could and should have been converted into a win by being more positive.
 


Hugo Rune

Hugo Rune

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 23, 2012
21,616
Brighton
Mo Gosfield said:
has to be fill yer boots time. We needed a minimum of 7 pts and can still get 8 by beating Swans but it is putting massive pressure on a home game against a bang in form side.
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Despite their rich vein of form, Swansea have won about 1 game away from home in the last two months and only 2 games away from home overall. They’ll see a draw as a brilliant result but if we perform like we did against the likes of Watford, Burnley and West Ham; we should get our 3 points. We’re staying up!
 


chaileyjem

chaileyjem

#BarberIn
NSC Patron
Jun 27, 2012
13,881
Mo Gosfield said:
I wish I shared your confidence re putting passivity behind us, particularly away from home but the evidence at St Marys and Bet 365 is that we still let the tempo drop too much and invited both teams onto us. Pellegrino and Lambert both made two changes before we reacted and these changes gave both teams fresh impetus. We are not good enough to keep clean sheets for long periods and in both those two games, we were in control and winning but allowed two struggling teams back in the game.
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I don't think there are games Albion go into thinking: - We’re going to sit back for 30 minutes, soak up a lot of pressure and then catch them on the break.’
Our way of playing will be the same in every game. And all you want is for the circumstances to go your way -

oh hang on a minute . thats what Hughton thinks too...
https://twitter.com/AndyNaylorArgus/status/961924519802867712
 




M

Mo Gosfield

Well-known member
Aug 11, 2010
6,284
Hugo Rune said:
Despite their rich vein of form, Swansea have won about 1 game away from home in the last two months and only 2 games away from home overall. They’ll see a draw as a brilliant result but if we perform like we did against the likes of Watford, Burnley and West Ham; we should get our 3 points. We’re staying up!
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I agree.....just a bit worried that we don't seem to have another away win left in us and most of our remaining points will have to come at home. I can see us beating Swansea and Huddersfield and getting at least a draw from Leicester. That will get us to 35. We need to scramble another 3-4 from somewhere.
 




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