[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]

Cesar Chavez · Jan 22, 2014

Not that this will help you Sussex snow lovers, but we have plenty here in Virginia and it's rather cold this morning too:

See this:

http://weather.weatherbug.com/VA/Vienna-weather.html?&zip=22180

Monday afternoon by the way the temperature was 57F. But it's a continental climate, so big swings are the norm.

casbom · Jan 22, 2014

Notters said:
Here's to another 16 year period without significant snowfall. Used to love the stuff but was robbed of it through my childhood and have suffered two injuries, one serious and permanent, as a result of the stuff in the last few years.

I think this year has been the outsider in terms of how it appears our Winters have become. Just like the 95-96 winter was a cold one in a run of Warm winters, so this year is it's equivalent.

johnhammond · Jan 23, 2014

Trufflehound said:
This.

No idea what this is. But this.

An unintelligible stream of numbers can settle any argument.

But, 936.0 606 2.0 1.5 96 4.58 180 32 280.4 293.2 281.2.
The measuring balloon was at a pressure of 936mb, which was 606m above sea level, it was 2C, the dewpoint was 1.5C, so the relative humidity was 95%, which meant there was 4.58 grams of water per kilo of air, the wind was coming from 180 degrees, at 32 knots. The last three are a bit too involved.

Basically, no snow.

chucky1973 · Jan 23, 2014

Lots of reports of snow down to the midlands Papa?

vegster · Jan 23, 2014

Notters said:
Here's to another 16 year period without significant snowfall. Used to love the stuff but was robbed of it through my childhood and have suffered two injuries, one serious and permanent, as a result of the stuff in the last few years.

I'm with you. When it would come down and last 48 hours then melt totally away it was at it's best.

Husty · Jan 23, 2014

None in Leeds yet but it is bitterly cold.

Telscombe Seagull · Jan 23, 2014

I miss the snow

any news Papa?

Norman Potting · Jan 23, 2014

vegster said:
I'm with you. When it would come down and last 48 hours then melt totally away it was at it's best.

Snow, off work, clear blue skies and sunshine so that you can go for a nice walk, take lots of pictures and end up in a pub for lunch, thaw, back to work, 3 days max. That's the sort of snow I am content with.

Papa Lazarou · Jan 23, 2014

Telscombe Seagull said:
I miss the snow any news Papa?

Not really. The models still give us an outside chance of snow on Monday and slightly higher Tuesday to Thursday next week, but it's still very marginal down here and will be more sleet or cold rain down here.

HalifaxSeagull · Jan 23, 2014

Husty said:
None in Leeds yet but it is bitterly cold.

Had a bit in the hills around Halifax this eve, but nothing to get excited about - just a dusting. It's saying snow for Monday / Tuesday, but again only a tiny bit.

RowleyBirkinQ.C(deceased) · Jan 23, 2014

In Southend we had a mini thunderstorm and about 2 minutes of snow about 5.30 this evening.
That is the end of the Essex weather report

Giraffe · Jan 23, 2014

Nearly at 400 pages now. 12 pages of lovely snow, 388 of talking about whether it might snow soon. Brilliant stuff.

Will we have some soon? Come on!

Leighgull · Jan 24, 2014

RowleyBirkinQ.C(deceased) said:
In Southend we had a mini thunderstorm and about 2 minutes of snow about 5.30 this evening.
That is the end of the Essex weather report

That wasn't snow Rowley it was hail the size of fricking sugar cubes. They have not melted outside yet.

casbom · Jan 24, 2014

I'm sure Papa will be along today to comment on the signal for what's going to happen next week, but here's my view.

It now appears that there is a better chance of seeing some wintry stuff next week, it's mainly forecast for midlands northwards however there is always the chance of us seeing some as well as the week goes on. However next week looks like it's going to be a nightmare to forecast as there could be surprise snow practically anywhere as it looks like the UK is going to be the battleground between the warm Atlantic and the cold East, who wins nobody knows!

Papa over to you....

Papa Lazarou · Jan 24, 2014

casbom said:
I'm sure Papa will be along today to comment on the signal for what's going to happen next week, but here's my view.

It now appears that there is a better chance of seeing some wintry stuff next week, it's mainly forecast for midlands northwards however there is always the chance of us seeing some as well as the week goes on. However next week looks like it's going to be a nightmare to forecast as there could be surprise snow practically anywhere as it looks like the UK is going to be the battleground between the warm Atlantic and the cold East, who wins nobody knows!

Papa over to you....

Agreed - it's a hard one to call... the latest GFS ensemble has 30-45% snow chances all the way from Thursday 30th Jan through to the early hours of Sunday Feb 3rd; but that's the problem - we still are on the less that 50% chance side of the knife edge.

View attachment 50467

Different models show variations on the theme.

The key will be how much energy / low pressure is allowed to push to the SE of the UK, which allows (possibly brief) ridging from the Scandi high to our north. We then get a cold easterly round the top of the low. This could possibly be a repeating pattern, as low pressure after low pressure moves towards us, and some of it's energy will squeeze between the Scandi and Azores high.

I'd expect a cold spell of weather, with potentially lots of snow in the north (especially as it will be a marginal event, so lots of moisture in the mix) and we will see some flakes at times, but it'll fluctuate between rain to sleet to snow and back again.

For anything memorable we really need the Azores high to either retreat out into the Atlantic (as its proximity keeps stopping the low pressure systems from fully 'committing' to a southerly track) OR ridging up to Greenland and bringing a Northerly.

There is enough in the models to suggest with a few tweaks we could get a few days of snowy weather, but it's still the outside bet ... at the moment.

LamieRobertson · Jan 24, 2014

Papa Lazarou said:
Agreed - it's a hard one to call... the latest GFS ensemble has 30-45% snow chances all the way from Thursday 30th Jan through to the early hours of Sunday Feb 3rd; but that's the problem - we still are on the less that 50% chance side of the knife edge.

View attachment 50467

Different models show variations on the theme.

The key will be how much energy / low pressure is allowed to push to the SE of the UK, which allows (possibly brief) ridging from the Scandi high to our north. We then get a cold easterly round the top of the low. This could possibly be a repeating pattern, as low pressure after low pressure moves towards us, and some of it's energy will squeeze between the Scandi and Azores high.

I'd expect a cold spell of weather, with potentially lots of snow in the north (especially as it will be a marginal event, so lots of moisture in the mix) and we will see some flakes at times, but it'll fluctuate between rain to sleet to snow and back again.

For anything memorable we really need the Azores high to either retreat out into the Atlantic (as its proximity keeps stopping the low pressure systems from fully 'committing' to a southerly track) OR ridging up to Greenland and bringing a Northerly.

There is enough in the models to suggest with a few tweaks we could get a few days of snowy weather, but it's still the outside bet ... at the moment.

Planning to go to Cornwall for a few days sunday week...i think i will hold off booking for now

Telscombe Seagull · Jan 24, 2014

Taking the father in law to hopsital on weds so hope it holds off until after then, then snowmaggeddon would be awesome. sounds unlikely though.

driller · Jan 24, 2014

Sky reporting wide spread snow across the country likely end of next week.

How likely is this?

Also mrs Driller has to go to a funeral in South Wales end of next week.
Will she be able to use weather as excuse not to go?

Leighgull · Jan 24, 2014

driller said:
Sky reporting wide spread snow across the country likely end of next week.

How likely is this?

Also mrs Driller has to go to a funeral in South Wales end of next week.
Will she be able to use weather as excuse not to go?

Can't she just ring and say she is allergic to words made entirely of consonants so can't cross the Severn bridge?

Papa Lazarou · Jan 25, 2014

driller said:
Sky reporting wide spread snow across the country likely end of next week.

How likely is this?

Also mrs Driller has to go to a funeral in South Wales end of next week.
Will she be able to use weather as excuse not to go?

Still the odds are against it down here

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