Now, who's our biggest threat?

I was going to post much the same late last night. We just need to keep going as we are. No good at all comes of worrying about others. If we mess this up its down to us completely

Rotherham can still get 72 points.

Stat Brother said:

Rotherham can still get 72 points.

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Your maths doesn't work out.

Triggaaar said:

If we finish with 89 points again, do you think we'd deserve to be in the PL?

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Yes I think 89 points could well be enough, and I can't see us losing out on GD, I also think in relation to Villa, they have zero hope of hitting 89 points. Let's just start with 3 points today and we'll be on target for 102 points and promotion !!

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crookie said:

Yes I think 89 points could well be enough, and I can't see us losing out on GD, I also think in relation to Villa, they have zero hope of hitting 89 points. Let's just start with 3 points today and we'll be on target for 102 points and promotion !!

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89 will do it ... couldn't give a flying f**k if that's 1st or 2nd, who might be ahead of us or just behind us just so long as we get to that number

crookie said:

Yes I think 89 points could well be enough, and I can't see us losing out on GD, I also think in relation to Villa, they have zero hope of hitting 89 points.

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If Villa match Burnely's second half of last season, they'll get 89 points. Very unlikely, but not impossible. But if they were to do that, I don't think it's right to say "we don't deserve to be anywhere near the Premier League."

sir albion said:

Come back in March and we'll see......

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Didn't plan to leave but we'll see when the time comes.

I agree with those that say we are the biggest threat. We have it in our hands and it's only really worrying about the boys in blue and white do.

As an aside, there are SO many people presuming that Newcastle will get the other auto spot. I would LOVE it if they cocked it up from here

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Dont think we have played well for some time now. Don't care if we play badly for the rest of the season. As long as we continue to pick up points. 90 has to be the target regardless of what anyone else does.

17 clear of Villa.
18 clear of Norwich.

Derby the biggest threat.
Reading still the monkey in the wrench that keeps winning.

ourselves

Plenty of fans including myself are worried about a surge from a team behind us, so I delved into the past league tables to assess the level of threat. As we are halfway through the season and in the top 2, I wanted to compare the final table with the halfway one in past seasons. This would show how often a team managed to push into the automatic promotion places in the second half of a season. So I checked back until I got bored (the 1995/6 season) also before that was the reduction of the top flight to 20 teams (wasn’t it supposed to be 18?) and this affected the number of promoted sides.

I’ve summarised the data in a table. In the years a team managed to get promoted after pushing into the top 2 in the second half of the season, I’ve listed the following: their name, how many point they got in the second half of the season, how many points they were behind second place at the halfway stage. I have also listed the team that was in the top 2 that failed to get promoted and the number of points they were ahead of the third placed team halfway through the season.

A surge doesn’t happen every year. Where I’ve put “No Team” in the table, the top 2 teams at halfway were top 2 at the end of the season. Most of the successful pushes for a top 2 place involve teams averaging 2 points a game or more over the half season (23games x2= 46), where they haven’t, I’ve put their names in brackets [ie. Norwich and Stoke].



Looking at the figures, everyone remembers 2011/12 when Reading rose from 23rd to Champions. Their run really started 6th Nov. when in 16th . From then on it was P:31 W:23 D:2 L:6. By the midpoint of the season they were already 6th. In terms of half season results Burnley’s 55 points last year was better than Reading’s 53 points.
By comparison our second half season last year resulted in 45 points that lifted us from 4th at halfway to 3rd in the final table. If we had beaten Boro in that final game, it would be the first time in the 20 years I’ve checked that both teams in the top 2 would have been ousted by surging teams.

So in the last 20 years, Burnley’s 55 was the biggest points haul to break into the top 2 along with Sunderland’s 54 points in 06/07, both teams were 9 points behind second place at the time. Most of the other surges have been achieved by teams that were already pretty close points-wise and position-wise to the top 2. Both these factors indicate that Aston Villa and Norwich are probably too far back. Fulham, Derby, and Sheff Massive would have to break Burnley’s record from last year.

I decided to turn the data on its head and look at the teams in the top 2 after 23 games who got knocked out of an automatic promotion place by a team rising up during the second half of the season. The first thing I noticed was that Derby have managed this three times in the last 10 years. The more intriguing fact is the team that failed to get promoted was only a few points ahead of the third placed team. The margins have always been small. The biggest gap was Burnley’s in 01/02, they were 4 points clear of Man City and Wolves (eventually they even managed to finish outside the play-offs). We have twice that margin over Reading.

In conclusion, we need to be wary of any team within 10 points of us at the halfway stage. No team in the top 2 has accrued such a large point advantage as us and thrown it away in the last twenty years. This is not to say it can’t happen and after last year’s heartbreak, I’ll make no rash predictions. All I will say is that from past years, teams in our position have not been dislodged by a second half of the season surge.

Cowfold Seagull said:

Probably still Norwich for me, they have been on a bit of a bad run, but are bound to come good soon, and their 5-0 thumping of Brentford was ominous I think.

For Derby to start thinking about the automatic promotion places then they are going to have to go on one hell of a run of victories. The same applies to Aston Villa.

Jaap Stam is slowly turning Reading's fortunes around, this season may prove to be a year too early though. The same with Garry Monk at Leeds, and David Wagner at Huddersfield.

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I thought Norwich early season, but they've turned out to be really poor defensively. Seems they totally underestimated the quality required in defense pre-season. They are far too poor to be any sort of threat. I'm sure they will strengthen at the back in Jan, but by the time that comes good, it'll be way too late. They won't even make the playoffs. Derby on the other hand have the quality. Its great for us that they had such a poor start and barring a really bad run for us, the gap should be too big. Third place finish for them, nailed on. I can't see Reading going the distance.

Suomi Hypoxia said:

Plenty of fans including myself are worried about a surge from a team behind us, so I delved into the past league tables to assess the level of threat. As we are halfway through the season and in the top 2, I wanted to compare the final table with the halfway one in past seasons. This would show how often a team managed to push into the automatic promotion places in the second half of a season. So I checked back until I got bored (the 1995/6 season) also before that was the reduction of the top flight to 20 teams (wasn’t it supposed to be 18?) and this affected the number of promoted sides.

I’ve summarised the data in a table. In the years a team managed to get promoted after pushing into the top 2 in the second half of the season, I’ve listed the following: their name, how many point they got in the second half of the season, how many points they were behind second place at the halfway stage. I have also listed the team that was in the top 2 that failed to get promoted and the number of points they were ahead of the third placed team halfway through the season.

A surge doesn’t happen every year. Where I’ve put “No Team” in the table, the top 2 teams at halfway were top 2 at the end of the season. Most of the successful pushes for a top 2 place involve teams averaging 2 points a game or more over the half season (23games x2= 46), where they haven’t, I’ve put their names in brackets [ie. Norwich and Stoke].

View attachment 80540

Looking at the figures, everyone remembers 2011/12 when Reading rose from 23rd to Champions. Their run really started 6th Nov. when in 16th . From then on it was P:31 W:23 D:2 L:6. By the midpoint of the season they were already 6th. In terms of half season results Burnley’s 55 points last year was better than Reading’s 53 points.
By comparison our second half season last year resulted in 45 points that lifted us from 4th at halfway to 3rd in the final table. If we had beaten Boro in that final game, it would be the first time in the 20 years I’ve checked that both teams in the top 2 would have been ousted by surging teams.

So in the last 20 years, Burnley’s 55 was the biggest points haul to break into the top 2 along with Sunderland’s 54 points in 06/07, both teams were 9 points behind second place at the time. Most of the other surges have been achieved by teams that were already pretty close points-wise and position-wise to the top 2. Both these factors indicate that Aston Villa and Norwich are probably too far back. Fulham, Derby, and Sheff Massive would have to break Burnley’s record from last year.

I decided to turn the data on its head and look at the teams in the top 2 after 23 games who got knocked out of an automatic promotion place by a team rising up during the second half of the season. The first thing I noticed was that Derby have managed this three times in the last 10 years. The more intriguing fact is the team that failed to get promoted was only a few points ahead of the third placed team. The margins have always been small. The biggest gap was Burnley’s in 01/02, they were 4 points clear of Man City and Wolves (eventually they even managed to finish outside the play-offs). We have twice that margin over Reading.

In conclusion, we need to be wary of any team within 10 points of us at the halfway stage. No team in the top 2 has accrued such a large point advantage as us and thrown it away in the last twenty years. This is not to say it can’t happen and after last year’s heartbreak, I’ll make no rash predictions. All I will say is that from past years, teams in our position have not been dislodged by a second half of the season surge.

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Great work there.

Suomi Hypoxia said:

Plenty of fans including myself are worried about a surge from a team behind us, so I delved into the past league tables to assess the level of threat. As we are halfway through the season and in the top 2, I wanted to compare the final table with the halfway one in past seasons. This would show how often a team managed to push into the automatic promotion places in the second half of a season. So I checked back until I got bored (the 1995/6 season) also before that was the reduction of the top flight to 20 teams (wasn’t it supposed to be 18?) and this affected the number of promoted sides.

I’ve summarised the data in a table. In the years a team managed to get promoted after pushing into the top 2 in the second half of the season, I’ve listed the following: their name, how many point they got in the second half of the season, how many points they were behind second place at the halfway stage. I have also listed the team that was in the top 2 that failed to get promoted and the number of points they were ahead of the third placed team halfway through the season.

A surge doesn’t happen every year. Where I’ve put “No Team” in the table, the top 2 teams at halfway were top 2 at the end of the season. Most of the successful pushes for a top 2 place involve teams averaging 2 points a game or more over the half season (23games x2= 46), where they haven’t, I’ve put their names in brackets [ie. Norwich and Stoke].

View attachment 80540

Looking at the figures, everyone remembers 2011/12 when Reading rose from 23rd to Champions. Their run really started 6th Nov. when in 16th . From then on it was P:31 W:23 D:2 L:6. By the midpoint of the season they were already 6th. In terms of half season results Burnley’s 55 points last year was better than Reading’s 53 points.
By comparison our second half season last year resulted in 45 points that lifted us from 4th at halfway to 3rd in the final table. If we had beaten Boro in that final game, it would be the first time in the 20 years I’ve checked that both teams in the top 2 would have been ousted by surging teams.

So in the last 20 years, Burnley’s 55 was the biggest points haul to break into the top 2 along with Sunderland’s 54 points in 06/07, both teams were 9 points behind second place at the time. Most of the other surges have been achieved by teams that were already pretty close points-wise and position-wise to the top 2. Both these factors indicate that Aston Villa and Norwich are probably too far back. Fulham, Derby, and Sheff Massive would have to break Burnley’s record from last year.

I decided to turn the data on its head and look at the teams in the top 2 after 23 games who got knocked out of an automatic promotion place by a team rising up during the second half of the season. The first thing I noticed was that Derby have managed this three times in the last 10 years. The more intriguing fact is the team that failed to get promoted was only a few points ahead of the third placed team. The margins have always been small. The biggest gap was Burnley’s in 01/02, they were 4 points clear of Man City and Wolves (eventually they even managed to finish outside the play-offs). We have twice that margin over Reading.

In conclusion, we need to be wary of any team within 10 points of us at the halfway stage. No team in the top 2 has accrued such a large point advantage as us and thrown it away in the last twenty years. This is not to say it can’t happen and after last year’s heartbreak, I’ll make no rash predictions. All I will say is that from past years, teams in our position have not been dislodged by a second half of the season surge.

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Top research and puts it into perspective, we are our own biggest risk and we really are un a great position.

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LlcoolJ said:

Great work there.

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I've spent too much time avoiding relatives but not the Christmas booze or Statto.com

Lethargic said:

Top research and puts it into perspective, we are our own biggest risk and we really are un a great position.

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Cheers, yes it really is down to us. Definitely in a stronger position than this time last year.

Suomi Hypoxia said:

Plenty of fans including myself are worried about a surge from a team behind us, so I delved into the past league tables to assess the level of threat. As we are halfway through the season and in the top 2, I wanted to compare the final table with the halfway one in past seasons. This would show how often a team managed to push into the automatic promotion places in the second half of a season. So I checked back until I got bored (the 1995/6 season) also before that was the reduction of the top flight to 20 teams (wasn’t it supposed to be 18?) and this affected the number of promoted sides.

I’ve summarised the data in a table. In the years a team managed to get promoted after pushing into the top 2 in the second half of the season, I’ve listed the following: their name, how many point they got in the second half of the season, how many points they were behind second place at the halfway stage. I have also listed the team that was in the top 2 that failed to get promoted and the number of points they were ahead of the third placed team halfway through the season.

A surge doesn’t happen every year. Where I’ve put “No Team” in the table, the top 2 teams at halfway were top 2 at the end of the season. Most of the successful pushes for a top 2 place involve teams averaging 2 points a game or more over the half season (23games x2= 46), where they haven’t, I’ve put their names in brackets [ie. Norwich and Stoke].

View attachment 80540

Looking at the figures, everyone remembers 2011/12 when Reading rose from 23rd to Champions. Their run really started 6th Nov. when in 16th . From then on it was P:31 W:23 D:2 L:6. By the midpoint of the season they were already 6th. In terms of half season results Burnley’s 55 points last year was better than Reading’s 53 points.
By comparison our second half season last year resulted in 45 points that lifted us from 4th at halfway to 3rd in the final table. If we had beaten Boro in that final game, it would be the first time in the 20 years I’ve checked that both teams in the top 2 would have been ousted by surging teams.

So in the last 20 years, Burnley’s 55 was the biggest points haul to break into the top 2 along with Sunderland’s 54 points in 06/07, both teams were 9 points behind second place at the time. Most of the other surges have been achieved by teams that were already pretty close points-wise and position-wise to the top 2. Both these factors indicate that Aston Villa and Norwich are probably too far back. Fulham, Derby, and Sheff Massive would have to break Burnley’s record from last year.

I decided to turn the data on its head and look at the teams in the top 2 after 23 games who got knocked out of an automatic promotion place by a team rising up during the second half of the season. The first thing I noticed was that Derby have managed this three times in the last 10 years. The more intriguing fact is the team that failed to get promoted was only a few points ahead of the third placed team. The margins have always been small. The biggest gap was Burnley’s in 01/02, they were 4 points clear of Man City and Wolves (eventually they even managed to finish outside the play-offs). We have twice that margin over Reading.

In conclusion, we need to be wary of any team within 10 points of us at the halfway stage. No team in the top 2 has accrued such a large point advantage as us and thrown it away in the last twenty years. This is not to say it can’t happen and after last year’s heartbreak, I’ll make no rash predictions. All I will say is that from past years, teams in our position have not been dislodged by a second half of the season surge.

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Now THAT is research