Stoke and Copeland Matchday By-election Thread

F

ForestRowSeagull

Well-known member

Jan 6, 2011

959

Now Brixton

• Feb 23, 2017

• #21

Peston highlighted earlier that it's an odd scenario where Labour holding two seats they've held for ages would actually be seen as a success. Stoke one is interesting, the recent UKIP furore can't have helped at all.

 

GreersElbow

New member

Jan 5, 2012

4,870

A Northern Outpost

• Feb 23, 2017

• #22

deletebeepbeepbeep said:

what have the Blairite arm of the Labour party done for Copeland and Stoke other than parachute in people called Tristram.

Click to expand...

Corbyn delivered utopia, shirely the people of Stoke will remember this!

 

GreersElbow

New member

Jan 5, 2012

4,870

A Northern Outpost

• Feb 23, 2017

• #23

ForestRowSeagull said:

Peston highlighted earlier that it's an odd scenario where Labour holding two seats they've held for ages would actually be seen as a success. Stoke one is interesting, the recent UKIP furore can't have helped at all.

Click to expand...

I think people will see UKIP as irrelevant from now on and would expect an exodus back to the Tories. UKIP simply can't reimage itself, it talks about the patriotic voice of the working class whilst having individuals on their executive committee with quasi-libertarian beliefs.

 

crodonilson

He/Him

Jan 17, 2005

13,536

Lyme Regis

• Feb 23, 2017

• #24

Any value in 2/1 for the Labour double?

 

Albumen

Don't wait for me!

Jan 19, 2010

11,495

Brighton - In your face

• Feb 23, 2017

• #25

GreersElbow said:

I think people will see UKIP as irrelevant from now on and would expect an exodus back to the Tories. UKIP simply can't reimage itself, it talks about the patriotic voice of the working class whilst having individuals on their executive committee with quasi-libertarian beliefs.

Click to expand...

Which it never has been. They aimed for the gullible and struck gold/yellow/purple. Farage is an evil c>nt who's done very well to ruin the UK but he's an intelligent evil c>nt whereas new UKIP Nuttles is a wet prat, and less backed than Farage. I'm no fan of Labour but I hope they win both today.

 

GreersElbow

New member

Jan 5, 2012

4,870

A Northern Outpost

• Feb 23, 2017

• #26

crodonilson said:

Any value in 2/1 for the Labour double?

Click to expand...

Worth a punt, I can't see it being lost.

 

spring hall convert

Well-known member

Nov 3, 2009

9,608

Brighton

• Feb 23, 2017

• #27

GreersElbow said:

I think people will see UKIP as irrelevant from now on and would expect an exodus back to the Tories.

Click to expand...

*As long as Theresa May pursues a hard Brexit.*

 

Kuipers Supporters Club

Well-known member

Feb 10, 2009

5,641

GOSBTS

• Feb 23, 2017

• #28

Conservative candidate for Copeland is local, works for the largest employer, ticks all the boxes, if there is going to be a gain for anyone, it's there.

UKIP might well be looking for a third leader fourth leader in six months, should come close but don't think they will do it and it is against a very weak Lab candidate.

Bet on a Copeland Conservative gain.

If Labour lose both its all over for Corbyn

 

e77

Well-known member

May 23, 2004

7,268

Worthing

• Feb 23, 2017

• #29

crodonilson said:

Any value in 2/1 for the Labour double?

Click to expand...

I do think Labour are overpriced for Copeland so might be.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius

Jul 21, 2003

35,315

• Feb 23, 2017

• #30

spring hall convert said:

So am I. Which one do you think they'll lose?

Click to expand...

the obvious one is to lose Copeland. however this weather makes for an interesting if left-field option, they hold onto Copeland as bad weather is normal for Cumbria, and lose narrowly in Stoke to Tories as Labour and UKIP a like stay at home.

though as you say, really shouldn't even be discussing Labour losing either seat.

 

S

Soulman

New member

Oct 22, 2012

10,966

Sompting

• Feb 23, 2017

• #31

Albumen said:

Which it never has been. They aimed for the gullible and struck gold/yellow/purple. Farage is an evil c>nt who's done very well to ruin the UK but he's an intelligent evil c>nt whereas new UKIP Nuttles is a wet prat, and less backed than Farage. I'm no fan of Labour but I hope they win both today.

Click to expand...

Nice language, yet you deride UKIP, priceless.

 

S

Soulman

New member

Oct 22, 2012

10,966

Sompting

• Feb 23, 2017

• #32

Labour’s candidate ( for today's Stoke by- election) is Gareth Snell, who hates Brexit. How much does he hate it? A few months ago he said it was a ‘massive pile of shit’. Stoke had one of the highest Brexit votes in the country: 69.4 per cent of people cast their ballots against the EU. Snell thinks they voted for a ‘massive pile of s***’.

 

e77

Well-known member

May 23, 2004

7,268

Worthing

• Feb 23, 2017

• #33

Soulman said:

Labour’s candidate ( for today's Stoke by- election) is Gareth Snell, who hates Brexit. How much does he hate it? A few months ago he said it was a ‘massive pile of shit’. Stoke had one of the highest Brexit votes in the country: 69.4 per cent of people cast their ballots against the EU. Snell thinks they voted for a ‘massive pile of s***’.

Click to expand...

Absolutely, but he still might very well beat UKIP.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Kuipers Supporters Club

Well-known member

Feb 10, 2009

5,641

GOSBTS

• Feb 23, 2017

• #34

Bets / Predictions to laugh at later:

Copeland:

Conservative Gain, 44 % of the vote
Labour 23%
UKIP 16%

Stoke

UKIP Gain 27.5% of vote (reckon it will be won by under 500 votes)
Labour 27% (therefore Labour to lose both)
Cons 25%
Lib Dems 8.5%

Turnout to be lower in Stoke than Copeland (34.5% to 43%)

 

deletebeepbeepbeep

Well-known member

May 12, 2009

20,961

• Feb 23, 2017

• Thread starter
• #35

If Labour lose both Corbyn's position has got to be untenable.

 

S

Soulman

New member

Oct 22, 2012

10,966

Sompting

• Feb 23, 2017

• #36

e77 said:

Absolutely, but he still might very well beat UKIP.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Click to expand...

You could be correct, after seeing some of the predictions on here, who knows.

 

Leekbrookgull

Well-known member

Jul 14, 2005

16,253

Leek

• Feb 23, 2017

• #37

Brighton4Cambridge3 said:

Conservative candidate for Copeland is local, works for the largest employer, ticks all the boxes, if there is going to be a gain for anyone, it's there.

UKIP might well be looking for a third leader fourth leader in six months, should come close but don't think they will do it and it is against a very weak Lab candidate.

Bet on a Copeland Conservative gain.

If Labour lose both its all over for Corbyn

Click to expand...

With you on Copeland and Nuttall well for me there is something "not right" whether you like Farage or not (?) there is something about the guy that some people will buy into. Actually think Labour will hold Stoke Central. As for Corbyn Momentum will keep him as leader.

 

Leekbrookgull

Well-known member

Jul 14, 2005

16,253

Leek

• Feb 23, 2017

• #38

deletebeepbeepbeep said:

If Labour lose both Corbyn's position has got to be untenable.

Click to expand...

Not with Momentum running the show.

 

beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius

Jul 21, 2003

35,315

• Feb 23, 2017

• #39

deletebeepbeepbeep said:

If Labour lose both Corbyn's position has got to be untenable.

Click to expand...

pfft, this wouldnt change anything, his position is already untenable for a leader of the party of opposition, he cant command the confidence of his own parliamentary party.

 

e77

Well-known member

May 23, 2004

7,268

Worthing

• Feb 23, 2017

• #40

Soulman said:

You could be correct, after seeing some of the predictions on here, who knows.

Click to expand...

I suspect that it would have been a different result if Farage had run.

For it's sins Labour does have a large activist base that can push the party over the line in a close contest.