One hot tub one ambition
Active member
No pressure then to count up all the goals that you have seen in those games. We will have won a game by more than two goals and been involved with a couple more OGs before you manage that
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[Football] Own Goals
- Thread starter 8ace
- Start date
No pressure then to count up all the goals that you have seen in those games. We will have won a game by more than two goals and been involved with a couple more OGs before you manage that
Jam The Man
Well-known member
I have seen us score 966 goals.
30 og is 3.1%
Solid at the back
Well-known member
I think its Richard Dunne with 10, Carragher7, Skrtel 6
- Thread starter
- #24
Thanks [MENTION=1276]AZ Gull[/MENTION] and [MENTION=139]Jam The Man[/MENTION]
This was where I got the 5% from but with only 32 games it's a poor sample:
http://www.skautingtimdif.rs/biblioteka_analize/Evaluation of the goal.pdf
This has the frequency of all the scores:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/in-126-years-english-football-has-seen-13475-nil-nil-draws/
I'll post my working when I've done it (might be tomorrow now though)
This was where I got the 5% from but with only 32 games it's a poor sample:
http://www.skautingtimdif.rs/biblioteka_analize/Evaluation of the goal.pdf
This has the frequency of all the scores:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/in-126-years-english-football-has-seen-13475-nil-nil-draws/
I'll post my working when I've done it (might be tomorrow now though)
Last edited:
One hot tub one ambition
Active member
Fair play! Maybe I meant Chelsea, winning by two goals including an own goal...
KingKev
Well-known member
From a Liverpool site, red scouse have scored 9,450 goals in their history including 185 oggies (so c 2%) and 491 pens (nearer 5% - although of course during the John Barnes era that would be more like 25% at Anfield).
AlbionPics&SouthCoastTwit
New member
My goal is always to catch the murderer. If you don't own that goal then you will never catch the person.
- Thread starter
- #28
I'm gonna with 3%, so for every 1000 games:
72 will finish 0-0
98 will finish 1-0
63 will finish 0-1
161 in total, 3% of which is 4.83 - lets call it 5.*
So that means 0.5% of game the stalemate is broken only by an own goal
If we take the previous odds of 8/1 (FGS market) and 10/1 (CS market) and have nominal £1 stake on 1000 games:
FGS -£352
CS -£208
If the own goal is settled as void bet then we get:
FGS -£347
CS -£208
if it's settled as a winner:
FGS -£312
CS -£208
So the CS is clearly the best bet at those prices.
If there is not such a big difference in prices, say, 8/1 and 17/2:
FGS -£312
CS -£316
FGS is the better value but not by much.
So I'd say you'd be better off backing 0-0 if the price is at least one point better.
*I haven't included games where more than 1 goal is scored and all the goals are own goal as they are rare, e.g: 1-1 with two OGs occurs about 1/10000
72 will finish 0-0
98 will finish 1-0
63 will finish 0-1
161 in total, 3% of which is 4.83 - lets call it 5.*
So that means 0.5% of game the stalemate is broken only by an own goal
If we take the previous odds of 8/1 (FGS market) and 10/1 (CS market) and have nominal £1 stake on 1000 games:
FGS -£352
CS -£208
If the own goal is settled as void bet then we get:
FGS -£347
CS -£208
if it's settled as a winner:
FGS -£312
CS -£208
So the CS is clearly the best bet at those prices.
If there is not such a big difference in prices, say, 8/1 and 17/2:
FGS -£312
CS -£316
FGS is the better value but not by much.
So I'd say you'd be better off backing 0-0 if the price is at least one point better.
*I haven't included games where more than 1 goal is scored and all the goals are own goal as they are rare, e.g: 1-1 with two OGs occurs about 1/10000
blue-afro-man
Active member
- Nov 25, 2013
- 160
Anyone got some wet paint that needs watching?