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General Election 2015



M

Machiavelli

Well-known member
Oct 11, 2013
16,646
Fiveways
ROSM said:
The poll of polls with all conducted in the last 7 days gives conservative a 1% lead. I expect that on the day the figure will be closer to 3% in real votes. The expected flight to the status quo is happening albeit slower and in not as much depth as 2010 or 2005

However it's the marginal polls, both the ITV and ashcroft ones that show labour performing better than on a national spread

All pointing to tories having highest vote share and maybe more seats but still unable to form a government

Unless something amazing happens tonight......
Click to expand...

Agree with this. The Tories do seem to be holding up their vote, with the incumbency factor probably playing a role. The other factor that points in the other direction, is the one mentioned by [MENTION=222]Southy[/MENTION]: Labour have more activists that could ensure they get their vote out, and persuade those that are veering towards them to vote for them, in the last week.
 




spring hall convert

spring hall convert

Well-known member
Nov 3, 2009
9,608
Brighton
ROSM said:
The poll of polls with all conducted in the last 7 days gives conservative a 1% lead. I expect that on the day the figure will be closer to 3% in real votes. The expected flight to the status quo is happening albeit slower and in not as much depth as 2010 or 2005

However it's the marginal polls, both the ITV and ashcroft ones that show labour performing better than on a national spread

All pointing to tories having highest vote share and maybe more seats but still unable to form a government

Unless something amazing happens tonight......
Click to expand...

Apparently, the 'flight to status quo' is built into this year's polls.
 


Mellotron

Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
31,841
Brighton
How do the polls take account of people who have never voted before? Sorry if this is a rather naïve question...
 


Herr Tubthumper

Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
59,501
The Fatherland
Chicken Run said:
Seeing as you clearly aren't a UK civilian why the concern for being Civic! [emoji3]
Click to expand...

I'm a civil guy, and what wants best for you all :smile:
 


M

Machiavelli

Well-known member
Oct 11, 2013
16,646
Fiveways
Mellotron said:
How do the polls take account of people who have never voted before? Sorry if this is a rather naïve question...
Click to expand...

They don't. They just select a random, though representative, sample and ask them how they will vote. They may also ask how they voted in the previous election, but that wouldn't exclude a first time voter from being included.
 




Titanic

Titanic

Super Moderator
Helpful Moderator
Jul 5, 2003
39,068
West Sussex
Interesting, or even remarkable, if this is true....

[tweet]593774032203489280[/tweet]

Latest @IpsosMORI poll has Tories ahead of Lab in greater London 41% to 36% among certain to vote. On 24 April Lab had 12pt lead in London
 


beorhthelm

beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,302
Machiavelli said:
They don't. They just select a random, though representative, sample and ask them how they will vote. They may also ask how they voted in the previous election, but that wouldn't exclude a first time voter from being included.
Click to expand...

theres a bit more going on than that. some polling use the previous voting to apply a projection on the don't knows. if you don't say or didn't vote, then that already inaccurate projection becomes more inaccurate. or boarder line guesswork.

other polls ignore the don't knows altogether so you have a percentage adding up to 100 that might be missing 20-30% of those polled.
 






Herr Tubthumper

Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
59,501
The Fatherland
beorhthelm said:
theres a bit more going on than that. some polling use the previous voting to apply a projection on the don't knows. if you don't say or didn't vote, then that already inaccurate projection becomes more inaccurate. or boarder line guesswork.

other polls ignore the don't knows altogether so you have a percentage adding up to 100 that might be missing 20-30% of those polled.
Click to expand...

Just saw a prediction you made a few months back in my train cArNaGe thread :lolol:
 


seagullsovergrimsby

seagullsovergrimsby

#cpfctinpotclub
Aug 21, 2005
43,690
Crap Town
Titanic said:
Interesting, or even remarkable, if this is true....

[tweet]593774032203489280[/tweet]

Latest @IpsosMORI poll has Tories ahead of Lab in greater London 41% to 36% among certain to vote. On 24 April Lab had 12pt lead in London
Click to expand...

Another interesting fact from this poll is that only 63% of Labour supporters who voted Labour in 2010 say they will definitely be voting Labour on May 7th. All the other pollsters so far have the figure at around 80% which in turn is extrapolated to give a final % when the "dont knows or undecided" are factored in.
 


M

Mellor 3 Ward 4

Well-known member
Jul 27, 2004
9,799
saaf of the water
Have a look at this

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/32440469

Scroll down the page, past all the stuff about the Scots, and the interactive map is pretty interesting.

It shows how the rise of UKIP is affecting seats - lots of marginal which the Tories currently hold, will go to Labour because of the UKIP vote.

Kemptown and Hastings being two prime examples.
 




B

BLOCK F

Well-known member
Feb 26, 2009
6,343
ROSM said:
Even the most biased individual could see that leaders like Thatcher and Blair had a strategy and all tactical announcements were steps towards it
With this government we had the big society ( where did that go), swingeing cuts to clear the deficit which was abandoned when a second recession looked imminent meaning clearing the deficit didn't happen, immigration targets not met and dropped etc

You could argue the only ones to get a strategy through were the link dems with higher personal tax allowances, pupil premium and free school meals for ks1
Click to expand...

Errm ROSM, Labour strategy?
 




seagullsovergrimsby

seagullsovergrimsby

#cpfctinpotclub
Aug 21, 2005
43,690
Crap Town
Latest poll from Panelbase
LAB 34%
CON 32%
UKIP 17%
LD 8%
GREEN 4%
 






melias shoes

melias shoes

Well-known member
Oct 14, 2010
4,830
peterward said:
Totally agree, You cant apply national polls to predicted uniform swing in marginals. Incumbency plays a big role, a lot of good local MPs in constituencies will buck the national trend. Could end up Hove Labour, Pavilion Green, Kemptown Tory.

Will come down to a few marginals in England, UKIP is the fox in the hen house, theyve split the tory vote, and the Torys would get in without them. Could come down to how many Kippers switch back or even tactical voting. Ashcroft polling says Torys will vote Clegg in Sheff Halam to stop Labour and Labour will vote Tory in S.Thanet to decapitate Farage.

Will be an interesting night, get the pringles in
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glasfryn said:
quite honestly polls do not mean a thing
the polls in Israel showed one thing one and half hours (90min) before the election and yet still the far right got in I am just hoping our lot have got it wrong as well and ED sails in with a majority
Click to expand...
I don't.
 












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