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[Albion] 5 clear, 3 to play, we are safe







Si Gull

Way Down South
Mar 18, 2008
4,325
On top of the world
It's just a case of likelihood as you said. Southampton have managed only 9 points in their last ten games, Swansea only 6 from ten, so the thought that they will both achieve 7 from 3 is unlikely to say the least.

IF we lose all 3 then Saints and Swansea will only need to win 2 each. Agreed they're more likely not to but when teams are fighting for survival past form means very little.
 


spence

British and Proud
Oct 15, 2014
9,811
Crawley
Yep. West Ham GD is now 9 behind us.

So in short - all this needs to happen

- Albion lose all 3
WH need a minimum of 3 points from Leicester, Man Utd and Everton to overtake us. (Cos of GD)
saints need 5 out of 9
swans need 5 (cos of GD) out of 9
Hudds need 3 (cos of GD). Out of 9

And either Saints / Swans can only get max of 7 cos they are playing each other.

Still worried ?

All the time there there is a glimmer of a chance of us going down then fans of this club have every right to feel a bit nervous. Have you forgotten how we blew the Championship title which looked impossible at the time ?
 


chaileyjem

#BarberIn
NSC Patreon
Jun 27, 2012
13,770
All the time there there is a glimmer of a chance of us going down then fans of this club have every right to feel a bit nervous. Have you forgotten how we blew the Championship title which looked impossible at the time ?

No.

And feel free to be as nervous as you like.
 








Green Cross Code Man

Wunt be druv
Mar 30, 2006
19,631
Eastbourne
IF we lose all 3 then Saints and Swansea will only need to win 2 each. Agreed they're more likely not to but when teams are fighting for survival past form means very little.
I'd say past form does count a lot. Occassionally a team will have a near miraculous escape but for the most part that will not happen. If past form truly counted for nothing then the bookies would have to look at the odds in a completely different manner.
 




Steve.S

Well-known member
May 11, 2012
1,833
Hastings
No, that is incorrect. If we get one more point, Swansea can get 39 from 2 wins, but lose to Saints who can then surpass us with 7 (or possibly 6 with GD). Draw against Man U would be great result but not a mathematically safe one.

I don’t get some people. Southampton have Man City last game of the season, a win for them is as likely for them as it is for us against both Manchester clubs. Swansea still have to play Stoke who may still have a chance of beating the drop. The odds of 1 team putting a run of results together is probably a good bet. 2 teams 50/50. 4 teams highly unlikely.
 


Thunder Bolt

Ordinary Supporter
All the time there there is a glimmer of a chance of us going down then fans of this club have every right to feel a bit nervous. Have you forgotten how we blew the Championship title which looked impossible at the time ?

It didn't look impossible. Newcastle only had to win one game to overtake us, and us fail to win three games. 2 losses and a draw wasn't impossible at all.
 


warmleyseagull

Well-known member
Apr 17, 2011
4,201
Beaminster, Dorset
I don’t get some people. Southampton have Man City last game of the season, a win for them is as likely for them as it is for us against both Manchester clubs. Swansea still have to play Stoke who may still have a chance of beating the drop. The odds of 1 team putting a run of results together is probably a good bet. 2 teams 50/50. 4 teams highly unlikely.

I never said it was likely so don't shoot messenger; just responding to BG's comment that we are safe with one point; mathematically that is untrue. For benefit of doubt, I am 95% sure we are safe.
 




Thunder Bolt

Ordinary Supporter
I'm not sure how any seasoned supporter of a team in our current position could not have at least a tiny doubt that things could go tits up over the final 3 games. Stranger things have happened than Saints winning a couple of games and after Man C and Liverpool our GD may not be looking so good. Having said this, I still think we'll be ok but to have no doubts is bordering on pathological optimism. Do these people never fear the worst?

Do you really think Huddersfield can get three wins against Man City Chelsea and Arsenal? There are four teams below us, not just Saints and Swansea.
 


Cheeky Monkey

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
22,953
The commentators for the WHU game were pretty much suggesting WH were fairly safe (they were losing at that point), which I found a bit odd.
 










Green Cross Code Man

Wunt be druv
Mar 30, 2006
19,631
Eastbourne
The commentators for the WHU game were pretty much suggesting WH were fairly safe (they were losing at that point), which I found a bit odd.

Interesting and strange at the same time. I was listening on Talksport, and they took a different tack altogether. They summarised it well by saying West Ham had been 'sucked' back into the relegation battle.
 


DJ NOBO

Well-known member
Jul 18, 2004
6,310
Wiltshire
- we aren’t
- every possibility we will get another point
- all the teams around us have a lot of losable games - and are continuing to lose or drop points) Hudds, West Ham etc) and they don’t have 37 points
- saints and swans still have an awful lot to do and saints have even more to overtake us.
- Hudds aren’t in the same place as us. They have 2 fewer points. And a 14 goal GD swing to make up.
- Swans run in isn’t “nice” - it means that either saints or them will drop points. Thus helping us:
- it’s about as precarious as being a 40 or 50-1 shot which is what we are.

I hope you are right. You quite possibly are. I absolutely hope you are.
No way are we home and hosed though, as some seem to think we are.
My concern is that other teams will rouse themselves and get on a roll. Swansea, saints and hudd all have it them to do that .
I’m sure we will rouse ourselves but it may not make much difference given the calibre of opposition.
If it goes to last day.....we’ll, I hope it doesn’t go to last day.
I appreciate this is a negative view.
And To be fair, I thought we were done points-wise before the spurs game. I was delighted to be wrong on that.
 




GT49er

Well-known member
Feb 1, 2009
46,471
Gloucester
A genuine question, would you rather be in our position or Hudd's?

Same question, us or Swansea's?[/QUOTE
Yes, of course I'd rather be in our position. That doesn't mean I'm daft enough not to be concerned as long as finishing 18th. remains one of the possible outcomes.
 


DJ NOBO

Well-known member
Jul 18, 2004
6,310
Wiltshire
I'm not sure how any seasoned supporter of a team in our current position could not have at least a tiny doubt that things could go tits up over the final 3 games. Stranger things have happened than Saints winning a couple of games and after Man C and Liverpool our GD may not be looking so good. Having said this, I still think we'll be ok but to have no doubts is bordering on pathological optimism. Do these people never fear the worst?

This
 



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