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General Election 2017



ManOfSussex

ManOfSussex

We wunt be druv
Apr 11, 2016
14,748
Rape of Hastings, Sussex
This was just posted by the defeated Labour candidate in Hastings:

"So close, but not quite! The final result was:

Peter Chowney (Labour Party) 25,322
Nick Perry (Liberal Democrat) 1,885
Michael Sheridan Phillips (UKIP) 1,479
Amber Rudd (Conservative Party) 25,668
Nicholas John Wilson (Independent) 412

Thank you so much to everyone who helped. Since I joined the Labour Party in 1980, I've never seen such involvement and enthusiasm, with 50-60 people turning up to canvassing sessions, and 2,000 involved overall. It was especially good to see so many young people getting involved, and joining the Labour Party - again, something I've not seen since the 1980s, when I was one of them!
But this isn't the end, it's just the beginning. Under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, we've transformed the Labour Party, turning it back to its socialist roots. But more than that, we've changed the whole political landscape, and made people think differently about what they should expect, and who should pay for it. There is a magic money tree, but it's got a fence round it and a sign saying 'not for the likes of you'. Together, we can tear that down.
This is the last post I'll put on here - for now anyway. But it won't be long before there's another general election, I suspect ...
So thank you - the struggle continues!"

https://www.facebook.com/peter.chowney
 




Bozza

Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
55,760
Back in Sussex
Mellotron said:
Eh? I'm saying that you're trying to spin this into somehow not a disastrous result for Tories, and a very, very good one long term for Labour.

Are you threatening to ban me? What the **** is happening to you mate?
Click to expand...

No, I'm not. It's obviously disastrous for the Tories, and Theresa May in particular. No one with any sanity could suggest anything else.

Over many weeks on this thread I've slammed May and praised Corbyn. I've made it very clear I couldn't vote for May. You shouldn't confuse me ripping the piss out of a few obvious people on here (and those away from here they are similar to), with criticism for the Labour Party or Jeremy Corbyn. There's a massive difference, although perhaps it's too subtle for some.

Unlike many though, I can understand why people vote Labour and why others vote Conservative even though, on this occasion, neither options were for me.

I have kids in state school, including one at the beginning of his journey through our education system. My family don't have private healthcare and only last week we spent a fair bit of time in hospital, trusting the NHS to sort one of us out. We both have modest incomes that are a long way from attracting 40% tax. There is very little about my family that I think would make us stereotypical Tory. I voted Lib Dem and my partner voted Labour. Doubt that all you like, I don't give a toss.

The most enjoyable part of the fascinating last 16 hours or so was correcting my 7-y-o who thought I had "lost" because he saw the number of seats each party had before he headed off to school, and noticed that "Daddy's party" had very few. I'm not sure he fully understands why I was happy with the way it turned out, but I tried.

And, yes, I will ban people who question my integrity. I'm happy to have forthright disagreements with anyone, and often do. I allow people I utterly dislike carry on using NSC. But, using the pub/NSC analogy, if someone calls the landlord a ****, the landlord is likely to tell them to drink elsewhere, as will I.
 






Cadiz Seagull

Cadiz Seagull

Grey bearded old man
Jul 7, 2003
5,990
Between Haywards Heath and Trujillo, Extremadura,
My forecast, for what it's worth.

May will go, and sooner rather than later. The Tories don't fart around when they want to get rid of a leader.

Personally I think she was right to call an election but she fought a poor campaign and failed to hit a massive open goal; Corbyn was there for the taking three months ago, and if she had won the landslide most people (without the benefit of hindsight) thought she would the Labour party would either have kicked him out and or they would have split with an electable leader of the non-Corbyn part.

Now Corbyn is stronger than he ever was, the Labour party will stick with him. And fair play to the man, I thought he ran a very good campaign although I disagree with his policies.

The Tories will elect a new leader. Boris will fancy his chances but he has a lot of enemies in the party and I think he either won't stand or will be defeated.

Personally I'd like to see Zac Goldsmith as leader but I can't see him winning the next General Election. The whole point in General Elections is that in order to win you need to attract significant votes from people who aren't your traditional voters, like Tony Blair did and Thatcher before him. I can't see many people in the Labour party voting for Goldsmith, even those not wedded to Corbyn.

I think David Davies will be the new leader and therefore the new PM. Clearly wedded to Brexit so he will keep the leavers happy and will be acceptable to remainers - like me - who have accepted that if the people have decided to leave the EU then we should bloody well get on with it.
 




Grombleton

Grombleton

Surrounded by <div>s
Dec 31, 2011
7,356


The_Viper

The_Viper

Well-known member
Oct 10, 2010
4,345
Charlotte, NC
dwFJRY7.jpg
 






Bozza

Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
55,760
Back in Sussex
Next Government odds:

Tory minority - 1/7
Any other (essentially DUP coalition now) - 7/1

I should probably have read the rules on this market before getting involved in it. I have now. The difference is how the next cabinet is made up. If there's no DUP MP within the cabinet then it's a Tory minority government. If a DUP MP makes it into May's cabinet then it's deemed to be a coalition.
 


BBassic

BBassic

I changed this.
Jul 28, 2011
12,337
Bozza said:
Next Government odds:

Tory minority - 1/7
Any other (essentially DUP coalition now) - 7/1

I should probably have read the rules on this market before getting involved in it. I have now. The difference is how the next cabinet is made up. If there's no DUP MP within the cabinet then it's a Tory minority government. If a DUP MP makes it into May's cabinet then it's deemed to be a coalition.
Click to expand...

You'd have to expect part of the deal would be a DUP MP in the cabinet, right?

EDIT: Heh, if you rearrange the letters you get DUMPP
 


B

Bodian

Well-known member
May 3, 2012
11,858
Cumbria
Cadiz Seagull said:
My forecast, for what it's worth.

May will go, and sooner rather than later. The Tories don't fart around when they want to get rid of a leader.

Personally I think she was right to call an election but she fought a poor campaign and failed to hit a massive open goal; Corbyn was there for the taking three months ago, and if she had won the landslide most people (without the benefit of hindsight) thought she would the Labour party would either have kicked him out and or they would have split with an electable leader of the non-Corbyn part.

Now Corbyn is stronger than he ever was, the Labour party will stick with him. And fair play to the man, I thought he ran a very good campaign although I disagree with his policies.

The Tories will elect a new leader. Boris will fancy his chances but he has a lot of enemies in the party and I think he either won't stand or will be defeated.

Personally I'd like to see Zac Goldsmith as leader but I can't see him winning the next General Election. The whole point in General Elections is that in order to win you need to attract significant votes from people who aren't your traditional voters, like Tony Blair did and Thatcher before him. I can't see many people in the Labour party voting for Goldsmith, even those not wedded to Corbyn.

I think David Davies will be the new leader and therefore the new PM. Clearly wedded to Brexit so he will keep the leavers happy and will be acceptable to remainers - like me - who have accepted that if the people have decided to leave the EU then we should bloody well get on with it.
Click to expand...

Now that would be interesting. Would they give him a different constituency if this happened? Because I suspect that even if there's a faint chance of turning over a party leader - then it would probably happen. After all, his majority is only 45 or something.

On that note - has a sitting Prime Minister ever lost their seat?
 






B

Bodian

Well-known member
May 3, 2012
11,858
Cumbria
simmo said:
I know what you are saying but what Osbourne was intimating was that if the Tories won a thumping majority they would remove the 2/3 act (so allowing their PM to call a GE at their convenience)....now that they are on a knife edge, they are going to drop that pledge (deliberately) and can go to June 2022, i.e no matter how much JC might ask for another GE they can say by law we cannot and are not obliged too because of the fixed term act....I agree on a vote of no confidence, but that would mean the DUP triggering an election giving Corbyn a chance (read the Guardian article about how much they hate him!)....over time this may change with one by one by election losses by the Tories I agree, but this I think would take at least 3 years for the numbers to be close (do remember every single other, non Con/DUP MP needs to be onside with JC to trigger the no confidence motion) and time is really not on JC side....

I think what Osbourne was intimating was if the Tories could not form a govt now, their could be another election before the year was out, now that they were appearing to do so, because of this fixed term act and the fact that it is law, it was quite likely it would last until 8th June 2022 giving a more concrete identifiable date for the next GE for all.

Jezza will be 73 in 2022....Chuka Amunna (as an example) will be 43 in 2022.

I do put in the cavaet that at the moment anything seems possible in UK politics....I would not surprise me if Lord Bucket Head was our new lead negotiator at the Brexit talks in 10 days time
Click to expand...

Good points - thanks for explaining it. I'm not really sure of what happens with Manifesto things in a hung parliament. It's not like the 2010 coalition, where they basically drew up a new agreement - this time it's the Tories on their own manifesto, with the support of the DUP when needed. So, by all that is fair (in politics?) they should at least try to deliver on their manifesto promises?
 


LlcoolJ

LlcoolJ

Mama said knock you out.
Oct 14, 2009
12,982
Sheffield
Bozza said:
The odds suggest not - "confidence and supply" I guess.
Click to expand...
More likely yes. A DUP MP in the cabinet sounds the most bonkers idea of a completely bonkers night/day. Stranger things have happened but surely that'd be taking it too far.....
 




G

Gwylan

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
31,341
Uffern
Bodian said:
On that note - has a sitting Prime Minister ever lost their seat?
Click to expand...

I know this one as I looked it up the other day. It's not an easy one to answer because it's yes and no.

In 1868, Gladstone stood in two seats (as you could then) and won one and lost the other ... so he could still be PM.

There was a near miss too. In 1935, McDonald resigned as PM and handed over to Baldwin (but stayed in cabinet), he then lost his seat at the GE held a few months later.

It's happened in other countries though: to John Howard in Australia just a few years ago
 




Scotchegg

Scotchegg

Well-known member
Sep 1, 2014
313
Brighton
pastafarian said:
I said Abbot must have touched Thornberry and said "you are it" when Thornberry gave that bonkers interview.
Stop being a wet blanket
Click to expand...

Nope, that's not the one. But then why would I expect you to post anything but "alternative facts". And on that, I'm done responding to you today, you're just too odious and I've not slept enough.

So on topic, just saw mays statement, absolutely embarrassing and full of denial. The knives are coming May, whether you want to stay or not. I really can't see her staying much longer. The party are not going to accept last night in stride.
 


J

Jim D

Well-known member
Jul 23, 2003
5,249
Worthing
Bodian said:
Good points - thanks for explaining it. I'm not really sure of what happens with Manifesto things in a hung parliament. It's not like the 2010 coalition, where they basically drew up a new agreement - this time it's the Tories on their own manifesto, with the support of the DUP when needed. So, by all that is fair (in politics?) they should at least try to deliver on their manifesto promises?
Click to expand...

In 2010 the Tory/LibDem coalition had a good working majority but this one is much more fragile. I just can't see them getting any of their more controversial measures through (school lunches, triple lock, etc). I can therefore see them calling a new election in a few months - probably with a new Tory leader.
 




P

PeterOut

Well-known member
Aug 16, 2016
1,238
As has been circulated on social media....
The Tories have spent the last 2 years accusing Corbyn of sympathising with terrorists. Now they have entered a coalition with the DUP. That'll help re-instate Stormont, and further the peace process in Norther Ireland, then :ffsparr:
 




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