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[Albion] 34 points probably will be enough



chaileyjem

#BarberIn
NSC Patreon
Jun 27, 2012
13,771
After everything. If Stoke beat Swansea on Sunday , and they might well do so, then Albion would have been safe as long ago as March 4th when the whistle went on our home victory v Arsenal.
34 points would have been enough.

If Swans win the likely cut off then is 36 given Albion's superior GD. In which case we have been safe since the draw v Spurs on April 17th when we secured our 36th point.
 




Icy Gull

Back on the rollercoaster
Jul 5, 2003
72,015
Would you like to be going to Anfield with 34 points and thinking it was enough Chailey because I wouldn’t !
 


A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Sep 1, 2017
17,517
Deepest, darkest Sussex
I'm still pondering the collective heart attacks and bed wetting the weekends results would have given everyone had we lost on Friday night...
 


Steve.S

Well-known member
May 11, 2012
1,833
Hastings
I'm still pondering the collective heart attacks and bed wetting the weekends results would have given everyone had we lost on Friday night...

Everyone would have become a Southampton supporter for the day yesterday. Or Swansea
 












dazzer6666

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Mar 27, 2013
52,006
Burgess Hill
After everything. If Stoke beat Swansea on Sunday , and they might well do so, then Albion would have been safe as long ago as March 4th when the whistle went on our home victory v Arsenal.
34 points would have been enough.

If Swans win the likely cut off then is 36 given Albion's superior GD. In which case we have been safe since the draw v Spurs on April 17th when we secured our 36th point.

Been thinking this for weeks - something around 34/35. Wouldn’t have enjoyed sitting on 35 waiting to find out though.
 


Wrong-Direction

Well-known member
Mar 10, 2013
13,395
We can still muck this up!

Sent from my SM-A310F using Tapatalk
 






TimWatt

Active member
Feb 13, 2011
165
Richmond
After everything. If Stoke beat Swansea on Sunday , and they might well do so, then Albion would have been safe as long ago as March 4th when the whistle went on our home victory v Arsenal.
34 points would have been enough.

If Swans win the likely cut off then is 36 given Albion's superior GD. In which case we have been safe since the draw v Spurs on April 17th when we secured our 36th point.

I guess the truest part of the above is the word 'if'.....

Forecasting is just a bit of fun, but the logic flaw in these threads is thinking the only outcome that could have happened is the one that did, and forgetting that for human activities knowledge of the past also motivates future behaviour.

So, if 34 had actually been enough teams would have aimed for that, or adjusted their motivations to their required target. But in reality in a competitive league and any team below 17th would always look to raise their efforts.

Look at the current table: of the current top ten teams only 2 won their last match, and for the bottom teams just 2 lost their last match and 7 won (some teams playing other teams in their half). This quirk could be due to the main prizes at the top having been decided, influencing motivation, and random chance - ie me being selective with the choice of stats.

I imagine the sensible thing Hughton will have done is pick a target with a margin of error built in, and budget the efforts match by match (or batches of matches) on the way to that. 40 seems a good number.

I imagine trends are only seem meaningful in aggregate, as the odd quirky outcomes are more memorable. I recall the trend for 17th has been 38 generally means safety and 37 is usually good enough (and that could apply this year discounting the variable of goal dif).
 


Munkfish

Well-known member
May 1, 2006
11,861
I thought 36 would just see us safe and new we were safe when we got that draw against Burnley, however I didnt celebrate it until friday night and friday night still felt huge as you never know.
 


chaileyjem

#BarberIn
NSC Patreon
Jun 27, 2012
13,771
I'm still pondering the collective heart attacks and bed wetting the weekends results would have given everyone had we lost on Friday night...

Wouldn't have lasted that long. We'd have been safe after last night. Swansea can no longer reach 37 points so we would have been guaranteed 17th or higher.
 




perseus

Broad Blue & White stripe
Jul 5, 2003
23,454
Sūþseaxna
I predicted (pre-season) we would go down on the last day on GD with 36 points. It looked like that all season. I thought it would be close right up to the final day between 5 to 8 clubs.

The draw against Spurs and win v Man U made all the difference.
 


Tim Over Whelmed

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 24, 2007
10,165
Arundel
After everything. If Stoke beat Swansea on Sunday , and they might well do so, then Albion would have been safe as long ago as March 4th when the whistle went on our home victory v Arsenal.
34 points would have been enough.

If Swans win the likely cut off then is 36 given Albion's superior GD. In which case we have been safe since the draw v Spurs on April 17th when we secured our 36th point.

........ check back on my posts, I've been saying this for weeks! Still, don't mind whatever it is now, we're safe and that's all that matters!
 


Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 11, 2003
59,198
The Fatherland
Now there’s a top 6, instead of a top 4, I guess the 40 points for safety is now 34?
 






D

Deleted member 2719

Guest
After everything. If Stoke beat Swansea on Sunday , and they might well do so, then Albion would have been safe as long ago as March 4th when the whistle went on our home victory v Arsenal.
34 points would have been enough.

If Swans win the likely cut off then is 36 given Albion's superior GD. In which case we have been safe since the draw v Spurs on April 17th when we secured our 36th point.

What a POINTLESS thread.
 


Sorrel

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
2,736
Back in East Sussex
What a lot of anguish since then. I shall no longer worry once we're past <whatever number of points we needed in the end this season> next season.
 



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