[Albion] Sam Baldock moves to Reading {CONFIRMED}

B.W. said:

Surely Sam B's proposed sale to Tinpot FC will be used to lower the Moore fee?

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Hugo Rune said:

A Reading fan’s analysis of our Sam on their hobby nobs website.

‘Thorough’ does not even come close!



Re: Sam Baldock
To me signing Baldock would indeed appear consistent with a change in tactical approach to allow two up front, which according to whoscored.com, only happened six times last season (4 x 352, 2 x 422). A potential change in shape may be required to increase our attacking output – only Burton (8.8 ) managed fewer than our 9.9 shots taken per match last season. I can’t however see any evidence that suggests Clement has previously employed a system with two up front – Derby almost always started with a 433 in his 33 games there, while Swansea only started three games in the season where he took over in January.

In his two most recent full seasons playing for Brighton (2016/16 and 2016/17), Baldock started the game as part of a front two on 26 and 27 occasions, coming off the subs bench a further 3 and 4 times. He never started as the lone striker in the handful of games in which Brighton played only one up top. After promotion Brighton switched to a more defensive set up, starting only one striker (often supported by Pascal Groß in an advanced midfield role); they only started a front two on 5 occasions. This suggests Baldock was squeezed out to accommodate the change in shape that (potentially) led to Brighton’s survival.

I think he is best suited to a secondary striker role, usually playing a little deeper than a target man (Murray or Hemed while at Brighton) – which is a role we haven’t played over the last couple of seasons. Indeed, his style looks more like Grabban, who has shown how successful he can be in this league when playing up top rather than out on the wing…

Image [this is a graph]

In Brighton’s 2015/16 promotion winning season, while starting up front, Baldock managed 11 goals, at 0.47 goals per 90 mins. In the season before, Baldock only scored 4 goals, at 0.19 goals per 90 mins. What is surprising is that the 7 extra goals came from only having four more shots (60 vs 56), and the basic location profile of shots was almost identical (around 2/3 in the penalty area, just over a quarter outside of the box, 7-11% in 6 yard box). This means his overall shot conversion rate increased from 7% to 18%, while his shot conversion from each location trebled (e.g. from 6% to 18% outside the box) – he scored from all 4 of his shots taken in the 6 yard box. To me, these conversion rates look unsustainably high.

By contrast JDB and Kermorgant were typically more active in the penalty area, which was the location for 70-80% of their shots across the last two seasons, and only 2 between them over the last two seasons across 91 starts as strikers (both Yann in 2016/17). Last season, JDB converted 10.4% of his shots 48, almost double the 5.6% he converted in the 21 games he started up front for Wolves in 2016/17. Kermorgant only converted 4% of his 24 shots taken in his 13 starts last season, significantly down from the 16.5% conversion rate in his stellar 2016/17 campaign.

Unfortunately there is not a whole lot of granular data publically available which would allow me to dig any deeper, but the author of the excellent Experimental361 blog does produce a neat chart showing the attacking threat breakdown of different teams. The author plots expected goals (xG) per 90 mins (x-axis) against the actual scoring rate per 90 mins (y-axis). I could only find one for 2016/17 ( I don’t think he produced them for 2015/16), which shows Baldock above the shaded area, indicating he performed in the top 10% of scorers by this measure. While this level of data isn’t available for earlier seasons, it does seem like his performance was a bit of an outlier, consistent with his raw goal stats.

Image [This is another graph]


For completeness, here is how our attack fared last season – although take care when comparing given the inconsistent axis ranges.

Image [This is yet another graph]

Interestingly, JDB performed exactly as expected given the quality of shots he took (he is not a bad finisher, although this measure says nothing about his ability to move into the right areas, nor his ability to generate a shot when receiving the ball in a dangerous area). The other conclusions I make from the chart are certainly not surprises; Yann struggled to get back to his 2016/17 form, Barrow scored more than he probably should have, and Aluko was not very good (although this was consistent with his poor 2016/17 conversion rate vs xG in the 2016/17 chart for Fulham on that blog).

In my opinion, Baldock would be a decent signing if available at the right price – 29 is just the wrong side of a typical striker’s peak, and you can make an argument either way about what impact a full season away from first team football might have. The signing would allow a potential change of shape, although not one previously used by Clement. A more attacking formation should lead to more shots and goals – hopefully the addition of Meyler in particular means a potential switch in approach doesn’t come at the expense of more shots/goals conceded – only 6 or so teams fared worse than us last season. If we were to sign him, we could probably reasonably expect a bit of mean reversion to high single figure goals scored this season if given a similar number of minutes in the right system - possibly even low double digits if he started in more than 2/3s of games like he did for Brighton. Of course he could prove 2016/17 wasn't a flash in the pan - who really knows?

I would however be disappointed if we paid a ‘high’ fee (>£3m?), which I would see as a big portion of what little funds we seemingly have at our disposal, especially if there is no change in shape – I don’t think Baldock would suit the lone striker role, and would be underutilised out wide (Grabban II).

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Hugo Rune said:

A Reading fan’s analysis of our Sam on their hobby nobs website.

‘Thorough’ does not even come close!



Re: Sam Baldock
To me signing Baldock would indeed appear consistent with a change in tactical approach to allow two up front, which according to whoscored.com, only happened six times last season (4 x 352, 2 x 422). A potential change in shape may be required to increase our attacking output – only Burton (8.8 ) managed fewer than our 9.9 shots taken per match last season. I can’t however see any evidence that suggests Clement has previously employed a system with two up front – Derby almost always started with a 433 in his 33 games there, while Swansea only started three games in the season where he took over in January.

In his two most recent full seasons playing for Brighton (2016/16 and 2016/17), Baldock started the game as part of a front two on 26 and 27 occasions, coming off the subs bench a further 3 and 4 times. He never started as the lone striker in the handful of games in which Brighton played only one up top. After promotion Brighton switched to a more defensive set up, starting only one striker (often supported by Pascal Groß in an advanced midfield role); they only started a front two on 5 occasions. This suggests Baldock was squeezed out to accommodate the change in shape that (potentially) led to Brighton’s survival.

I think he is best suited to a secondary striker role, usually playing a little deeper than a target man (Murray or Hemed while at Brighton) – which is a role we haven’t played over the last couple of seasons. Indeed, his style looks more like Grabban, who has shown how successful he can be in this league when playing up top rather than out on the wing…

Image [this is a graph]

In Brighton’s 2015/16 promotion winning season, while starting up front, Baldock managed 11 goals, at 0.47 goals per 90 mins. In the season before, Baldock only scored 4 goals, at 0.19 goals per 90 mins. What is surprising is that the 7 extra goals came from only having four more shots (60 vs 56), and the basic location profile of shots was almost identical (around 2/3 in the penalty area, just over a quarter outside of the box, 7-11% in 6 yard box). This means his overall shot conversion rate increased from 7% to 18%, while his shot conversion from each location trebled (e.g. from 6% to 18% outside the box) – he scored from all 4 of his shots taken in the 6 yard box. To me, these conversion rates look unsustainably high.

By contrast JDB and Kermorgant were typically more active in the penalty area, which was the location for 70-80% of their shots across the last two seasons, and only 2 between them over the last two seasons across 91 starts as strikers (both Yann in 2016/17). Last season, JDB converted 10.4% of his shots 48, almost double the 5.6% he converted in the 21 games he started up front for Wolves in 2016/17. Kermorgant only converted 4% of his 24 shots taken in his 13 starts last season, significantly down from the 16.5% conversion rate in his stellar 2016/17 campaign.

Unfortunately there is not a whole lot of granular data publically available which would allow me to dig any deeper, but the author of the excellent Experimental361 blog does produce a neat chart showing the attacking threat breakdown of different teams. The author plots expected goals (xG) per 90 mins (x-axis) against the actual scoring rate per 90 mins (y-axis). I could only find one for 2016/17 ( I don’t think he produced them for 2015/16), which shows Baldock above the shaded area, indicating he performed in the top 10% of scorers by this measure. While this level of data isn’t available for earlier seasons, it does seem like his performance was a bit of an outlier, consistent with his raw goal stats.

Image [This is another graph]


For completeness, here is how our attack fared last season – although take care when comparing given the inconsistent axis ranges.

Image [This is yet another graph]

Interestingly, JDB performed exactly as expected given the quality of shots he took (he is not a bad finisher, although this measure says nothing about his ability to move into the right areas, nor his ability to generate a shot when receiving the ball in a dangerous area). The other conclusions I make from the chart are certainly not surprises; Yann struggled to get back to his 2016/17 form, Barrow scored more than he probably should have, and Aluko was not very good (although this was consistent with his poor 2016/17 conversion rate vs xG in the 2016/17 chart for Fulham on that blog).

In my opinion, Baldock would be a decent signing if available at the right price – 29 is just the wrong side of a typical striker’s peak, and you can make an argument either way about what impact a full season away from first team football might have. The signing would allow a potential change of shape, although not one previously used by Clement. A more attacking formation should lead to more shots and goals – hopefully the addition of Meyler in particular means a potential switch in approach doesn’t come at the expense of more shots/goals conceded – only 6 or so teams fared worse than us last season. If we were to sign him, we could probably reasonably expect a bit of mean reversion to high single figure goals scored this season if given a similar number of minutes in the right system - possibly even low double digits if he started in more than 2/3s of games like he did for Brighton. Of course he could prove 2016/17 wasn't a flash in the pan - who really knows?

I would however be disappointed if we paid a ‘high’ fee (>£3m?), which I would see as a big portion of what little funds we seemingly have at our disposal, especially if there is no change in shape – I don’t think Baldock would suit the lone striker role, and would be underutilised out wide (Grabban II).

Click to expand...

Spanish Seagulls said:

Baldock has qualities that don't get him the plaudits he really deserves. The space he creates for others for one. He was unlucky here at Brighton with injuries & I think he will be a massive asset to whoever signs him.

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Spanish Seagulls said:

Baldock has qualities that don't get him the plaudits he really deserves. The space he creates for others for one. He was unlucky here at Brighton with injuries & I think he will be a massive asset to whoever signs him.

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b.w.2. said:

I believe you’ll find CH’s judgement is he is not up to the Prem.

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Triggaaar said:

I don't remember him saying that.

From team selection, we can conclude that Chris has felt he has had better options than Sam (and his level of form and fitness following injury), in the system he's wanted us to play. That's all.

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wolfie said:

Personally, I would be intrigued to see how he made out if he was given a run of games in the PL. Seems unlikely though.

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b.w.2. said:

Yes, like Our Chris is going to come out and say Sam B is not up to it!

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Spanish Seagulls said:

Baldock has qualities that don't get him the plaudits he really deserves. The space he creates for others for one. He was unlucky here at Brighton with injuries & I think he will be a massive asset to whoever signs him.

Click to expand...

chaileyjem said:

Reading Chronicle think this will be confirmed mon/Tuesday.

https://twitter.com/chroncourtney/status/1023648797052882944?s=21

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chaileyjem said:

Reading Chronicle think this will be confirmed mon/Tuesday.

https://twitter.com/chroncourtney/status/1023648797052882944?s=21

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b.w.2. said:

TBF Sam B has proved me wrong once when he had his fantastic (promotion) season with us, but I genuinely think the Prem is a step too far for him.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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BensGrandad said:

They could do a lot worse than taking Baldock and Hemed as a twin strike force proven in The Championship.

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