Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
The general trend on terms of the surface temperatures is slightly down for the period 20th onwards, but there is still a decent spread. We now have a few 30%+ snow rows as well.
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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]
- Thread starter Giraffe
- Start date
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
Please not yet ....due to go away some when between 20th and 31st for a break down west....you can have some snow later
It looks like a non event winter again. Trends just do not support any severe or even cold weather and we are half way through winter already without a single cold day. Europe is very mild and has been all winter. This cold weather event just keep getting put back and back. Forecasts showing 7C plus for the next 2 weeks.
Worhing temperatures are below after a mild November. December day max average 10.30 c, night min average 4.04 c - 7.16 c mean, average is 5.5 c. January as of yesterday day max average 7.29 c, night min average 2.0 c - 4.645 mean, average 4.5 c, Decemner 7 nights got to 0 c min or below, January got to 0 c min or below as of yesterday
Worhing temperatures are below after a mild November. December day max average 10.30 c, night min average 4.04 c - 7.16 c mean, average is 5.5 c. January as of yesterday day max average 7.29 c, night min average 2.0 c - 4.645 mean, average 4.5 c, Decemner 7 nights got to 0 c min or below, January got to 0 c min or below as of yesterday
- Aug 8, 2005
- 26,542
- Thread starter
- #14,244
Hooray, Uncle has spoken - I'll get the sled out and dust it down.
chucky1973
New member
I'm following you and other chaps on twitter that all follow the weather and inparticular the winter weather. They all now seem to suggest a decent cold spell from the 20th with some decent chances of sustained snow. You thinking along the same lines?
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
It's looking promising, but the scatter on the ensemble still includes more moderate outcomes. The most recent GFS (other models are available) gives an Op run which never drops the surface temp below 5C during that period (thick black line below). And remember the Op run is theoretically the most accurate run, as it runs at the highest resolution. So, THAT might be the 'real' outcome. The alternative view is that the Parallel Run (which is the future Op run, being tested with some 'enhancements') is vety cold, so even the 2 high res runs are way apart in terms of surface temps.
The red line (average) is lowering with each run, and the very mild runs we saw yesterday have gone (10C +) but there's still time for it to go wrong.
It's also worth noting that there's not a huge amount of precipitation showing.... but let's get the cold in place first.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/wor...th-high-risk-of-more-avalanches-a4032926.html
You can set your watches by US's winter weather updates...
Some of our harshest winters have been end of jan/feb. Very rarely do we get freezing weather before or just after Christmas so plenty of time yet if you are wanting cold weather. Although if the rest of winter is like today i would much prefer that, nice and sunny crisp day.
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
I'd much rather have it in Jan than Feb, at least right down here.
The metoffice’s mean daily stats have always shown the coldest dates are towards the end of January. The all important surrounding sea temperature continues to cool for a month or more after 21st Dec.
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Looks like there's signs of significant shifts towards cold to start appearing in the modelling soon. Bit of chatter on Twitter amongst respected experts that some issues that were blocking downwelling of the SSW effects are clearing and that should result in a pattern change that's likely to increase the odds of UK going colder. Eventually. Late Jan, and then possibly cold side of average for rest of the winter after that.
Yes they have had a lot of snow in hilly areas of central europe this week but we don't live there do we ? It is all rather boring really. Not mild as such, 7 c day , 2 c night but nothing on the horizon to suggest there is any likelihood of cold or snowy weather. A non event of a winter
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
It is looking more hopeful, but don't get too excited just yet, as there is a signal for possible cold Northerly or even North Westerly winds with milder incursions at times in a cyclonic flow. This will be good for Northern Britain but more marginal down here.
The upside is marginal can give MASSIVE snowfalls, if your on the right side of the divide.
Seasidesage
New member
Never mind snow. When does Spring start and I don't mean the poxy equinox either 
The BBC trashed any idea of cold from the sudden warming event, yesterday. They said it has been a non event. The one in lat feb this year here was a big fuss over nothing as well. Most of Sussex had 1 inch of now
Metcheck 2 c above average
Never mind snow. When does Spring start and I don't mean the poxy equinox either
It started in December after autumn, we have 3 seasons now
Papa Lazarou
Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
The latest GFS ensemble doesn't help a great deal, other than slightly increasing the snow%. (circled in red), but the uncertainty is still there, as shown by the spread in the possible surface temps.
Some runs give temps close to zero, whereas many other outcomes are possible.
More runs needed.
Some runs give temps close to zero, whereas many other outcomes are possible.
More runs needed.
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
Try Imodium if too many