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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]



Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 6, 2003
42,779
Lancing


Badger

NOT the Honey Badger
NSC Patreon
May 8, 2007
12,749
Toronto
Is there another forum anywhere in the world (bar weather forums obviously) with so many weather experts. Its a fun read.

Im still rooting for the flumping to come over the Christmas Period..............the reason why is that i work at Gatwick and they are gearing up for a cold spell, all staff who operate the snow ploughs have been put on 24 hour notice to respond starting from next week.

I'm landing at Gatwick on Christmas Eve. It had better be fully operational!
 




Badger

NOT the Honey Badger
NSC Patreon
May 8, 2007
12,749
Toronto
Ill pass on your concerns and that they prioritise your flight

Much appreciated :thumbsup:

If you could also prioritise me at passport control and baggage reclaim, that would be tremendous.
 






Badger

NOT the Honey Badger
NSC Patreon
May 8, 2007
12,749
Toronto
Montreal has a had a good FLUMPING, leading to some comedy slow motion pile ups.

 




Plake

Unregistered User
Nov 7, 2009
331
Brighton seafront
Montreal has a had a good FLUMPING, leading to some comedy slow motion pile ups.



Must have had a melt and refreeze there. Or freezing rain for a bit. Imagine what Hanover would be like in the same conditions on worn out summer tyres. Anyway, all very enjoyable, assuming nobody got hurt.
 




Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patreon
Aug 8, 2005
26,451
Montreal has a had a good FLUMPING, leading to some comedy slow motion pile ups.



That's bloody hilarious. But at what point did the guy stop filming and start stopping cars come down that hill!
 




Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 6, 2003
42,779
Lancing




Green Cross Code Man

Wunt be druv
Mar 30, 2006
19,631
Eastbourne
I've not seen anything at all to suggest that. Gets a little warmer this next week but nothing above average for the time of the year and then back to the colder conditions from around 17th


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Temperatures this week are forecast about 5 or 6 degrees above average for December. Even at the weekend it's forecast to cool down a bit but still be, in the daytime, 3 degrees above average.
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,835
Worthing
What is the long range forecast for Christmas ?

Only 1 model goes as far as Xmas day at the moment, and today's run has a low pressure to our West and strong SW winds. This is a class Spielberg Low, with "mild SW winds and temps near 60F, which will be hard to shift",

cfs-0-474_bmz2.png
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,835
Worthing
The next nearest (GFS) goes out as far as Dec 22nd, and for snow lovers is much more interesting. Over the 2nd half of the run it tries to establish a block to our North or NW, and at the end is full of wintry potential.

tempresult_ggh1.gif
 




Yoda

English & European
The next nearest (GFS) goes out as far as Dec 22nd, and for snow lovers is much more interesting. Over the 2nd half of the run it tries to establish a block to our North or NW, and at the end is full of wintry potential.

View attachment 79934

But I thought the South Westerlies were here to stay forever once they move in this week?
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,835
Worthing
But I thought the South Westerlies were here to stay forever once they move in this week?
[MENTION=1933]Yoda[/MENTION], I know. I think we all did.

On the general subject, that Operational GFS (the thick black line below) is in the middle of a very diverse 'pack' in the ensemble, which reflects the uncertainty in the models in the run up to Xmas. There are colder ones in there, which represent earlier victories in establishing a block, and others that sink the block into Europe and allow a more mobile flow. In between there will be some outcomes where we sit under a High Pressure for the period.

One thing to note is the lack of any appreciable rain in the 14 day forecast window, which suggests that at least down here, we'll have high pressure never too far from us.

graphe_ens3_cgi7.gif
 




smeg

New member
Feb 11, 2013
980
BN13
To be fair [MENTION=3887]Uncle Spielberg[/MENTION] is rarely far from the truth in these matters, I've been following this thread for years because I love snow and his forecasting is usually spot on.
 




Plake

Unregistered User
Nov 7, 2009
331
Brighton seafront
Yeah, it's like forecasting that Albion aren't going to get promoted in any given year on the basis of no actual analysis. Most likely you'll be right but nobody's going to thank you for it round here, and you'll be wrong every so often.
 


Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
55,575
Back in Sussex
To be fair [MENTION=3887]Uncle Spielberg[/MENTION] is rarely far from the truth in these matters, I've been following this thread for years because I love snow and his forecasting is usually spot on.

With respect to the good Uncle, it doesn't strike me that he actually forecasts anything, other than saying "this is what it's usually like, so it will be again". And that approach is likely to have a high success rate of course.

There's absolutely no fun in that though, is there? This thread would be very short if that's all everyone said each and every Winter.

On the other hand our esteemed colleague [MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION] and others take time to look at weather models and interpret them for us. I couldn't interpret a weather model any more than I can speak Cantonese, so it's interesting and fun.
 



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