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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]



vegster

Sanity Clause
May 5, 2008
27,867
Well, I can't follow most of it but after talking about 'snowmeggedon' this afternoon and 'the best charts posted in the internet era' a - apparently - bad 'ECM' model run this evening and the samaritans are now monitoring the thread

Still, they're 100% sure that the snow will be here in 6 weeks time
Just like politics.... Always " Jam tomorrow "!
 


Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 6, 2003
42,781
Lancing
The models have all gone tit s up the last 12 hours. All they show now is slight cold for the next 2 weeks, between 5-7 c by day and no snow. This is the trouble with these models showing ridiculous snow events. They are nothing more than weather porn. What's going on Papa ?
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,840
Worthing
The models have all gone tit s up the last 12 hours. All they show now is slight cold for the next 2 weeks, between 5-7 c by day and no snow. This is the trouble with these models showing ridiculous snow events. They are nothing more than weather porn. What's going on Papa ?

It's all very uncertain at the moment. Tuesday still looks cold with snow potential, then the models are really struggling. We could still get an easterly, but that option isn't as likely as before. Some models put us in a slack col for a few days, and others reset the pattern and the process starts over. Even the less promising output has cold air later.
 










Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,840
Worthing
[MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION], what’s your take on potential snow/very low temps for Sussex, for the 27th Jan onwards, please?

Sorry, been away from my computer today.

The problem is there is little agreement on where things go from Tuesday.

The short GFS ensemble for 2m temperture shows the available range

graphe_ens4_utd4.gif

After which it's all up for grabs.
 


Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 6, 2003
42,781
Lancing
The forecast is now for mild conditions and atlantic westerlies by the end of the end as opposed to all the models of extreme cold and easterlies we had for a couple of weeks after the warming event. It ain't happening
 




Taybha

Whalewhine
Oct 8, 2008
27,135
Uwantsumorwat
I agree , sledge prices at B&Q have remained the same for the last week or so , if it is going to snow these rocket up to a Barberistic £25 from £15 .
 


Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patreon
Aug 8, 2005
26,456
It certainly doesn't look too good but I'm not ruling it out just yet. There still seems to be a lot of uncertainty over what will happen this week. Could still something Wednesday or later in the week?
 






Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 6, 2003
42,781
Lancing
First Frost of the winter in Worthing. - 3 c 27 f

That was in fact winter 18/19
 


martin tyler

Well-known member
Jan 25, 2013
5,826
Cold out this morning and looks like a couple more frosts this week but doesn’t seem a lot else. Models showing it maybe cold late January early February at moment but I don’t hold much hope for any decent snow just the odd crisp frost and More likely the horrible cold rain when it’s 3/4 degrees. We have 5/6 weeks left for any decent prolonged cold spell before we can put it to bed for another year.
 


Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 6, 2003
42,781
Lancing
I would say generally once you get to the second half of febraury down here the game is up. I know we had some late cold last year but that was very unusual. So with no cold on the horizon until early feb, earliest, I would think we have a 2-3 week window of opportunity for any real cold or snow left now
 




Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patreon
Aug 8, 2005
26,456
I would say generally once you get to the second half of febraury down here the game is up. I know we had some late cold last year but that was very unusual. So with no cold on the horizon until early feb, earliest, I would think we have a 2-3 week window of opportunity for any real cold or snow left now

For proper lingering snow you're probably right but could still have a 2-3 day snow fest any time up to the end of April really.
 


Fungus

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
May 21, 2004
7,038
Truro


Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
55,575
Back in Sussex
Strangely, we had our first frost down here in Truro, way back at the end of October.

That's enough for us this winter, please.

We've had three or four in my part of Worthing, although if you weren't out early you would have missed those before today.
 






Peteinblack

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jun 3, 2004
3,583
Bath, Somerset.
Sorry, been away from my computer today.

The problem is there is little agreement on where things go from Tuesday.

The short GFS ensemble for 2m temperture shows the available range

View attachment 103922

After which it's all up for grabs.

Last night's BBC Countryside weather forecast referred to the previously predicted Easterlies, and said they were 'now on hold' as Atlantic Lows and Westerlies return at the end of this week, after a chilly (but not especially cold) few days.

As someone whose favourite winter weather scenario is a strong, stationary, anti-cyclone over Scandinavia feeding in easterly winds with troughs moving westwards (and giving heavy snow showers or more persistent snow), I am very disappointed that this is looking increasingly unlikely.

Yeah, I know I'm weird :blush:
 


Couldn't Be Hyypia

We've come a long long way together
NSC Patreon
Nov 12, 2006
15,898
Near Dorchester, Dorset
The forecast is now for mild conditions and atlantic westerlies by the end of the end as opposed to all the models of extreme cold and easterlies we had for a couple of weeks after the warming event. It ain't happening

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Your crowing over your incredible forecasting skills is pathetic. And you're missing the whole point of the thread - but you know that of course.
 



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