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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]



Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,840
Worthing
Based upon GFS only

graphe_ens3_gvm4.gif
 








Flex Your Head

Well-known member
[MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION] - what on Earth is going on? Last night on TWO there were posts about snowmageddon, and a potential 20cm of snow for the SE of the UK... and this morning, winter is over! Can the charts really change that much in 6 hours or so? What's your take on it all (please :))
I read the TWO forum regularly when there's talk of snow, and feel quite exhausted by the roller coaster ride! Can't imagine what it's like to be able to 'read the charts' too and have to try and interpret what's shown!
 




Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,840
Worthing
[MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION] - what on Earth is going on? Last night on TWO there were posts about snowmageddon, and a potential 20cm of snow for the SE of the UK... and this morning, winter is over! Can the charts really change that much in 6 hours or so? What's your take on it all (please :))
I read the TWO forum regularly when there's talk of snow, and feel quite exhausted by the roller coaster ride! Can't imagine what it's like to be able to 'read the charts' too and have to try and interpret what's shown!

Yes, last night's ECM Op run was amazing for snow, although the GFS was not so keen. This morning, the GFS and ensemble have backed away a little further from an extended cold spell, and the ECM Op run is also far less favourable. WE don't see the full ECM ensemble details, but apparently there is still support for cold weather in there.

This was never a 'nailed on cold spell' but last night's ECM got some people over excited.
 


Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 6, 2003
42,781
Lancing
Metcheck running at 1.45c above normal for January so it is turning out to be an exceptionally mild winter after a very mild november and december
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,840
Worthing
Yes, last night's ECM Op run was amazing for snow, although the GFS was not so keen. This morning, the GFS and ensemble have backed away a little further from an extended cold spell, and the ECM Op run is also far less favourable. WE don't see the full ECM ensemble details, but apparently there is still support for cold weather in there.

This was never a 'nailed on cold spell' but last night's ECM got some people over excited.

And when you see an ensemble with this amount of scatter from day 7, it's clear there is loads of room for adjustments

graphe_ens4_iqb3.gif
 




SK1NT

Well-known member
Sep 9, 2003
8,728
Thames Ditton
Metcheck running at 1.45c above normal for January so it is turning out to be an exceptionally mild winter after a very mild november and december

Still hope for snow :) i think last December and Jan was quite mild and then the Beast appeared. :thumbsup:
 


Eeyore

Lord Donkey of Queen's Park
NSC Patreon
Apr 5, 2014
23,379
https://www.express.co.uk/news/weat...ast-snow-warning-weather-forecast-latest-maps

Daily Express predicting Armageddon again, so best unpack the shorts, flip-flops and sun cream. Barbecue anyone?

'The terrifying snowstorm ravaging Europe has now claimed the lives of 20 people - but Britain could be next in line to bear the brunt of the frightening winter storm'

v

The Met office said in its long-range forecast prediction for the period of January 16 to January 25: “Winds will be strong with a risk of gales in the north at times. Thereafter, it looks set to remain mainly cold, unsettled and sometimes windy, with any milder spells tending to be brief and associated with longer spells of rain.

"The rain could turn to snow almost anywhere, but particularly across northern and central areas. especially later in this period. Some drier, brighter, quieter spells are likely, perhaps with snow showers, especially in the east. During such spells, frost could become widespread and severe.

"Temperatures overall will be close to the seasonal average, but from late next week onwards there is a greater chance of cold spells giving more widespread frosts and an enhanced risk of snow, especially in the north and east."

:lolol:
 


Audax

Boing boing boing...
Aug 3, 2015
2,921
Uckfield
There was an informative weather update on BBC news last night highlighting the forecasting difficulties at the moment. Essentially there are some fine details that could completely change things. On one hand we could get a Beast and on the other we could get milder.
 








Djmiles

Barndoor Holroyd
Dec 1, 2005
12,060
Kitchener, Canada
FINALLY expecting the first decent amount of snow here near the US/Canada border. My first Canadian winter has been thoroughly disappointing thus far!!
 




Driver8

On the road...
NSC Patreon
Jul 31, 2005
15,951
North Wales
The Award-Winning Official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2018-19 Season]

FINALLY expecting the first decent amount of snow here near the US/Canada border. My first Canadian winter has been thoroughly disappointing thus far!!

I had about 6 inches of snow when I was in Bow Valley in September!

7a8fefae4d44eaabe771a5cbf897c073.jpg
 




Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,840
Worthing
[MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION], looking further ahead to Weds 23/1 onwards, is settled snow looking a real possibility for all of Sussex?

It's certainly possible, but I think what you're asking is whether is PROBABLE.

Tonight's GFS is a big step in the right direction. The models have been really struggling from the 22nd onwards for a number of days, which is understandable, as it's been many days in the future, and the effect (if any) of the SSW has been hard to model until it started to work its way down through the atmosphere.

Where we are tonight is the GFS ensemble, for the first time in the 'spell' have come to some agreement, and that seems to be more cold than not. However, as the attached shows, although the snow % values have increased nicely there are still milder options (this is the 850hpa temp).

graphe_ens3_ajo9.gif

Looking at surface temps there is still a 'range' available, but the cold outcomes are increasing.

graphe_ens4_pbh7.gif

So, it's an increasing chance, but it could still easily got ever so wrong and we get cold rain. I'd say it's now pretty much guaranteed for upland and northern parts of the UK at some stage (even this week), but down here we need to wait a little longer, and although we probably will see snow falling, it's the longevity and persistence (on the ground) that's the variable.
 


Weststander

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Aug 25, 2011
63,389
Withdean area
It's certainly possible, but I think what you're asking is whether is PROBABLE.

Tonight's GFS is a big step in the right direction. The models have been really struggling from the 22nd onwards for a number of days, which is understandable, as it's been many days in the future, and the effect (if any) of the SSW has been hard to model until it started to work its way down through the atmosphere.

Where we are tonight is the GFS ensemble, for the first time in the 'spell' have come to some agreement, and that seems to be more cold than not. However, as the attached shows, although the snow % values have increased nicely there are still milder options (this is the 850hpa temp).

View attachment 103833

Looking at surface temps there is still a 'range' available, but the cold outcomes are increasing.

View attachment 103834

So, it's an increasing chance, but it could still easily got ever so wrong and we get cold rain. I'd say it's now pretty much guaranteed for upland and northern parts of the UK at some stage (even this week), but down here we need to wait a little longer, and although we probably will see snow falling, it's the longevity and persistence (on the ground) that's the variable.

Thanks. I’m trying to steer clear of an excited “probable” from now on, instead relying on your considered scientific view. :smile:
 




Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,840
Worthing
Thanks. I’m trying to steer clear of an excited “probable” from now on, instead relying on your considered scientific view. :smile:

I have to reign in the enthusiasm like any snow lover, especially when it comes to doing forecasts etc. I can't let me wishes over-ride the facts. My daughter is worse than me, always bemoaning the lack of snow and asking me when it's going to.

Let's see what tomorrow's models bring us....
 





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