General Election predictions

Simster · Jun 7, 2017

Triggaaar said:
She's far better than Corbyn, which is why many Labour supporters are considering voting Tory for the first time, and why Labour MPs resigned from his cabinet. And of course the government act like we're big players in the world stage - we have the 5th largest economy in the world, we hardly want to pretend we're insignificant when conducting our negotiations.

Yes, they are indeed up north. Or at least were, before her absolutely dreadful campaign containing absolutely zero substance became apparent. I genuinely think the number of labour leaning voters who end up voting tory will be far smaller than you think.

Triggaaar said:
He just said we'd defend Gibraltar if we had to, which of course we won't have to. He should have avoided the question more, but his comment hardly matters.

You have to be kidding. We are about to enter negotiations where the opposition hold all the cards, and this is Howard's contribution? Jesus CHRIST.

Triggaaar said:
Yeah, he's not a patch on Abbott.

Two things. 1) how is he any better? He was utterly despised by a woman who worked in the same Tory cabinet as him. I suspect she called it right. 2) If Labour get into government, it will only be through a coalition. And any coalition partners worth it's salt will insist Abbot is removed from the cabinet before any business is conducted. I can't stand Abbott - never has so little been said with so many words - but given the absolute disaster that is the Tory cabinet, remarkably her appearance is no longer a reason in itself for me not to vote Labour.

Can she really be any worse than alternative, which is the most feeble Tory front bench in living memory. Their absolutely shocking, arrogant, negative and uninformative campaign - despite having the press behind them and a huge head start in being able to prepare for a snap election - is testament to their incompetence.

LamieRobertson · Jun 7, 2017

Icy Gull said:
The IRA links suggest otherwise

You have a point ..but if you just catch a glance of the headlines those IRA links aren't stealing the show ..or maybe I'm just seeing the wrong headlines..worryingly a lot of people will vote on what they see on the front page of The Sun ..Mirror etc ..will that make a difference..come back Friday

Triggaaar · Jun 7, 2017

Simster said:
Yes, they are indeed up north. Or at least were, before her absolutely dreadful campaign containing absolutely zero substance became apparent. I genuinely think the number of labour leaning voters who end up voting tory will be far smaller than you think.

How many do I think it will be? Honestly, I don't know, I just think Corbyn will cost Labour more votes than May will cost the Tories.

You have to be kidding. We are about to enter negotiations where the opposition hold all the cards, and this is Howard's contribution?

Contribution? He has nothing to do with the negotiations. And if you think the opposition hold all the cards, you'd be the worst imaginable negotiator for us.

Two things. 1) how is he any better?

When I've seen him interviewed, my jaw hasn't dropped to the floor in the shock that he's an MP. He lead the Conservatives (and was therefore subjected to a lot of scrutiny), but wasn't humiliated in the way Abbott has been.

2) If Labour get into government, it will only be through a coalition. And any coalition partners worth it's salt will insist Abbot is removed from the cabinet before any business is conducted. I can't stand Abbott - never has so little been said with so many words

She's left now anyway, but the point is, Corbyn chose her to be shadow home secretary. You'd have him, and his judgement, as PM!

LlcoolJ · Jun 7, 2017

Triggaaar said:
Right, but we need a government of some sort, and someone has to do the Brexit negotiations. So out the options available, who do you want that to be - May, or Corbyn (possibly Corbyn in a coalition government)?

A coalition government would be massively preferable for me (don't think it'll happen though).

As I said, I have no faith in anyone "delivering" on Brexit so, although May has tried to make this the only point in the election, it's irrelevant to me when it comes to who I would like to see running the country.

On pretty much every other issue, I'd trust a coalition government more than a May, Tory government.

highflyer · Jun 7, 2017

God knows.
I can see it being pulled in different directions by different factors.
Young voters, shy Tories, tactical voting, impact of terrorist attacks. All very unpredictable.
If I really had to I would guess these will ultimately cancel each other out and we will be left with a comfortable Tory victory with 50-60 majority

I have put a bet on Amber Rudd to lose her seat at 5:1 - which seemed decent odds based on the possibility of a successful tactical vote

Simster · Jun 7, 2017

Triggaaar said:
How many do I think it will be? Honestly, I don't know, I just think Corbyn will cost Labour more votes than May will cost the Tories.

I'd say that May took a lot of Brexiters from the start because of her rhetoric on demanding a strengthened hand. People are beginning to see this as the clear bullshit it is though. Not everyone of course. Actually, this issue is far more of a nightmare for the Lib Dems - their rump of support has been in SW England, which unfortunately for them is a massively pro-Brexit area. Consequently, those gold areas are the ones turning blue in their droves, not the red ones up north.

Triggaaar said:
Contribution? He has nothing to do with the negotiations. And if you think the opposition hold all the cards, you'd be the worst imaginable negotiator for us.

Absolutely feeble response. The sort of drivel the Tories are coming out with, actually. My position is just realism. We are a nation of 60m, divorcing a trading block of 350m. We have to leave now, and the bill for this divorce is going to be paid by us, not the EU. Of course we are in a weaker position. Understanding that point doesn't make you a crap negotiator, you clown. :lol:

Triggaaar said:
When I've seen him interviewed, my jaw hasn't dropped to the floor in the shock that he's an MP. He lead the Conservatives (and was therefore subjected to a lot of scrutiny), but wasn't humiliated in the way Abbott has been.

Actually, I'll concede this point. Abbott would be far worse than Howard. But in truth, it's not saying much is it?

Triggaaar said:
She's left now anyway, but the point is, Corbyn chose her to be shadow home secretary. You'd have him, and his judgement, as PM!

She got in by default - he doesn't have many friends in the Parliamentary Labour Party!

Triggaaar · Jun 7, 2017

LlcoolJ said:
A coalition government would be massively preferable for me (don't think it'll happen though).

Fair enough. I think that would be a disaster. Everyone would want different things from the deal, we'd go in with no clear aims and it would be a shambles.

As I said, I have no faith in anyone "delivering" on Brexit so, although May has tried to make this the only point in the election, it's irrelevant to me when it comes to who I would like to see running the country.

Brexit has to be the main thing for our country over the next few (therefore 5) years. It will have a massive affect on our country for generations, how can you not see that?

On pretty much every other issue, I'd trust a coalition government more than a May, Tory government.

If the tories win, they'll not be doing a lot other than concentrating on Brexit for the next couple of years. Once Brexit is done, a Labour government in 5 years time can then provide what you want for the country post Brexit.

I think I'd actually cry for my children's future if Corbyn became PM.

Triggaaar · Jun 7, 2017

Simster said:
Absolutely feeble response. The sort of drivel the Tories are coming out with, actually. My position is just realism. We are a nation of 60m, divorcing a trading block of 350m. We have to leave now, and the bill for this divorce is going to be paid by us, not the EU. Of course we are in a weaker position. Understanding that point doesn't make you a crap negotiator, you clown.

You didn't say 'we are in a weaker position', you said 'the opposition hold all the cards'. That's very different, and thinking that would make you a bad negotiator.

She got in by default - he doesn't have many friends in the Parliamentary Labour Party!

I keep hearing this - Labour have a couple of hundred MPs, he only had to find 20 or so that would take the job. I believe the average MP is far more capable than Abbott, and if Corbyn is really rejected by something like 90% of his own MPs, how the hell can you want him to be PM?

ForestRowSeagull · Jun 7, 2017

Tory majority 125-149 @14's. Wonder how accurate the exit polls will be this year.

lawros left foot · Jun 7, 2017

This thread has moved off its intended direction, to be just a general General Election thread. It's meant to be your predictions, not the reason for them, just what the result will be.

Simster · Jun 7, 2017

Triggaaar said:
You didn't say 'we are in a weaker position', you said 'the opposition hold all the cards'. That's very different, and thinking that would make you a bad negotiator.

Rubbish - you're playing semantics in an effort to enhance your point of view. Regardless, the truth is that we have hardly anything to bargain with. No deal leaves us far worse off than the rest of the EU, and because of the 2 year limit, any deal that will be done will be done on their terms, not ours. With these bare facts recognised, we need skilled negotiators prepared to tiptoe through the minefield without pissing off too many allies and trading partners. On what planet was Michael Howard's rhetoric a clever piece of politics?

Triggaaar said:
I keep hearing this - Labour have a couple of hundred MPs, he only had to find 20 or so that would take the job. I believe the average MP is far more capable than Abbott, and if Corbyn is really rejected by something like 90% of his own MPs, how the hell can you want him to be PM?

My guess is that her majority of 24,000 has something to do with it.

Tom Hark Preston Park · Jun 7, 2017

I predict the Tories shooting themselves in the foot again with a reduced majority.

They just can't help themselves taking the electorate for granted.

They didn't need to promise a EU referendum last time, they didn't need to call a snap election this time.

KingKev · Jun 7, 2017

I said Tory majority of >100 at the start but think it will be less than that. However the behaviour of large parts of the printed press this morning, waiting until Election Day to unleash a load of vile b@llcr@p and rehashed nonsense on the front page about Labour terrorist sympathisers in the current atmosphere may well do its intended job and force the majority well over 50, allowing May to claim a great succes.
Not a fantastic advert for democracy is it, where the majority of people are voting for their least worst option, and with a press meddling more conspicuously than ever before on the basis of individual owners' own interests and prejudices? May has been the worst performer of the leaders imho and can inspire little confidence to anyone that she will deliver on anything other than more austerity for the poorest. If I believed she was capable of doing a decent job of Brexit I would have even considered voting Tory for the first (and only) time in my life, but she has shown herself up to be completely lacking in any of the skills we require of a leader for this, or any, time.

Tory campaign has been the poorest in my living memory - just a constant drone of "we're not as bad as Jezza" - and for them to come out of it being able to claim an overwhelming mandate sickens me. Hey-ho, c'est la vie...

LlcoolJ · Jun 7, 2017

Triggaaar said:
Fair enough. I think that would be a disaster. Everyone would want different things from the deal, we'd go in with no clear aims and it would be a shambles.

As I said, I have zero faith in the current people involved in the negotiations delivering anything but a shambles.

Brexit has to be the main thing for our country over the next few (therefore 5) years. It will have a massive affect on our country for generations, how can you not see that?

I'm painfully aware of that. I just don't trust the morons involved to make any sort of success of it. And I'm not convinced that anyone could.

If the tories win, they'll not be doing a lot other than concentrating on Brexit for the next couple of years. Once Brexit is done, a Labour government in 5 years time can then provide what you want for the country post Brexit.

So they won't be doing anything regarding the NHS, education, the police and other emergency services, housing, jobs, the economy, the environment, foreign policy etc etc? For five years. Right.

I think I'd actually cry for my children's future if Corbyn became PM.

I'm already concerned enough about my son's future after the Brexit vote, us having one of the worst PMs in living memory and her useless, inept and generally downright nasty set of cronies running the show.

I'm not a big fan of Corbyn, but with a coalition to curb his worst excesses of far leftness I'd be happy to see him given a chance.

I actually think the Tory/Lib Dem coalition worked well, as evidenced by the complete mess the Tories have made of things since gaining full control.

Maybe you've swallowed the "coalition of chaos" line Trig? [emoji6]

Pavilionaire · Jun 7, 2017

I think Theresa May will win but she won't get the landslide many predicted 6 weeks ago, but she'll be baled out by the returning Ukippers and end up with a majority of c. 35 seats.

That said, Labour has run a far better campaign than the Tories and I suspect their message will have resonated with younger voters - that factor could reap dividends in 5-10 years time. The problem is the electorate haven't had time to get to trust Corbyn - voting for him is still quite a punt given the impression left by the likes of Diane Abbott and his hugely ambitious spending plans.

Theresa May's underwhelming campaign and nervy, robotic performances will have disappointed Tory bigwigs, and she won't have the confidence of a big win to take into the Brexit negotiations. To use a tennis analogy, what should have been a straight-sets semi has turned out to be a gruelling, energy-sapping 5-setter and I don't think she'll be in good shape for the Brexit talks in a few days time.

SockMonster · Jun 7, 2017

Tory Boy said:
45 seat Tory majority.

Hove Tory, Pavillion Labour, kemptown Tory.

TB

No way! Hove will stay Labour, Kemptown will just go back to labour and Pavilion is surely an easy hold for Greens.
I think Tory will end up with around 12-15 maj. Lots of swings both ways in various seats.

Mr Blobby · Jun 7, 2017

I sadly think the Tories will gain seats in Scotland.

My prediction is a Tory majority of 1, May to resign , Corbyn to resign, Boris to become PM and Brighton to win the Premier League!

Triggaaar · Jun 7, 2017

Simster said:
Rubbish - you're playing semantics in an effort to enhance your point of view.

No I'm not, I read your comment that the opposition hold all the cards, and I thought to myself that was crap, as I know the EU have a great deal to lose, as we import so much from them. Of course they import from us too, but the point is, they don't hold all the cards.

If you didn't mean that they really hold all the cards, don't blame me when I take you at your word.

Regardless, the truth is that we have hardly anything to bargain with. No deal leaves us far worse off than the rest of the EU

Us being worse of than the EU is still a disaster for the EU. They'd have to cut off their nose to spite their face. On the other hand, a fair deal would be good for both sides.

and because of the 2 year limit, any deal that will be done will be done on their terms, not ours. With these bare facts recognised

I don't accept what you think are bare facts. I don't think we can screw the EU over, but I think we can offer a fair deal, and it would be unwise for the EU to reject it.

Bozza · Jun 7, 2017

The Telegraph are predicting a 100 seat majority (375 - 275): http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/07/maps-charts-showing-state-play-eve-general-election/

Triggaaar · Jun 7, 2017

LlcoolJ said:
As I said, I have zero faith in the current people involved in the negotiations delivering anything but a shambles.

Fair enough, but right now it's about choosing. If you think Corbyn and a coalition will be no worse, again, fair enough. I find that surprising though.

I'm painfully aware of that.

So why did you say 'although May has tried to make this the only point in the election, it's irrelevant to me when it comes to who I would like to see running the country'. If you don't think think May would be better at the negotiations than a coalition, that's fine and therefore you'll vote based on other factors, but that's not the same as saying it's irrelevant.

So they won't be doing anything regarding the NHS, education, the police and other emergency services, housing, jobs, the economy, the environment, foreign policy etc etc? For five years. Right.

I don't think they'll make significant changes that will affect our families for generations.

Maybe you've swallowed the "coalition of chaos" line Trig?

Nope, I don't go for party slogans.

As it is I won't vote tory anyway, as the local tory candidate is a ****wit. Similarly, while I don't mind the local Labour MP, I don't want to vote for Corbyn, as I would be seriously worried about what he'd do to our country.

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