[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]

ozseagull · Jan 7, 2014

Grombleton said:
Papa, what's the chances of the arctic conditions that the US are currently experiencing reaching us?

Not likely. Those weather systems pick up half the Atlantic and jet stream on the way over and turn into the windy rain we have been getting. Our snow will come from the other direction

Papa Lazarou · Jan 7, 2014

ozseagull said:
Not likely. Those weather systems pick up half the Atlantic and jet stream on the way over and turn into the windy rain we have been getting. Our snow will come from the other direction

If we can ever get a block in place. There are some weak signs of a possible Easterly in the output, but it's still only a 10-15% chance at the moment.

BigGully · Jan 7, 2014

First efforts from the models to show any signs of colder weather, but far too far away to even be contemplated, but at least they have thrown up something that looks remotely winterish !!!

Papa Lazarou · Jan 7, 2014

BigGully said:
First efforts from the models to show any signs of colder weather, but far too far away to even be contemplated, but at least they have thrown up something that looks remotely winterish !!!

After about 4 days the models are all over the place. My concern at the moment is the potential for more prolonged heavy rain next week, as there's a chance low pressure may become stationary over the UK. The groundwater levels really don't need topping up any more at the moment.

vegster · Jan 7, 2014

I meant to ask Papa, do you know where I could access the rainfall records for not so Sunny Worthing for the last 3 months ? I'm sure it is one of the wettest Autumns on record.

BigGully · Jan 7, 2014

Papa Lazarou said:
After about 4 days the models are all over the place. My concern at the moment is the potential for more prolonged heavy rain next week, as there's a chance low pressure may become stationary over the UK. The groundwater levels really don't need topping up any more at the moment.

I have made few friends lately ....... when discussing the impending doom of yet another storm !!

My thoughts are, having lived here on the coast for all my life that there is little exceptional about these storms this year, not withstanding the miserable circumstances of some flooded homes, I find it quite irritating when the news media hypes up another half day of rain.

Its been a mild winter with a dominant Antlantic, which has delivered rainy windy weather nothing unusual in such a set up.

It is different to the last few years but in the wider historical sense of localised weather it will be quickly forgotten, again acknowledging the unfortunate people that have had their homes flooded.

Questions · Jan 7, 2014

vegster said:
I meant to ask Papa, do you know where I could access the rainfall records for not so Sunny Worthing for the last 3 months ? I'm sure it is one of the wettest Autumns on record.

I thought I knew you. You're Eric Oulthwaite aren't you ?
By the way I've just bought a new Spear and Jackson shovel with two sets of double brass rivets through handle.

Papa Lazarou · Jan 7, 2014

vegster said:
I meant to ask Papa, do you know where I could access the rainfall records for not so Sunny Worthing for the last 3 months ? I'm sure it is one of the wettest Autumns on record.

This site has records... http://www.worthingweather.org/

I find the Env Agency Water reports very useful.

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/research/library/publications/33995.aspx

Papa Lazarou · Jan 7, 2014

This is the latest report with detailed rainfall figures by region

http://a0768b4a8a31e106d8b0-50dc802554eb38a24458b98ff72d550b.r19.cf3.rackcdn.com/LIT_9045_5f75c7.pdf

vegster · Jan 7, 2014

Papa Lazarou said:
This site has records... http://www.worthingweather.org/

I find the Env Agency Water reports very useful.

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/research/library/publications/33995.aspx

Touche Papa ! I told you about Worthing weather the other day ! I looked at their rainfall records and It was a bit to complicated, I was hoping for bar charts rather than squiggly lines.

Goldstone76 · Jan 7, 2014

Apparently Polar Vortex's can move left as well as right..

vegster · Jan 7, 2014

Papa Lazarou said:
This is the latest report with detailed rainfall figures by region

http://a0768b4a8a31e106d8b0-50dc802554eb38a24458b98ff72d550b.r19.cf3.rackcdn.com/LIT_9045_5f75c7.pdf

Thats more like it, I was right, a 25% wetter autumn than usual...ish.

Papa Lazarou · Jan 7, 2014

Goldstone76 said:
Apparently Polar Vortex's can move left as well as right..

It can wobble about and split as well.

Papa Lazarou · Jan 7, 2014

vegster said:
Thats more like it, I was right, a 25% wetter autumn than usual...ish.

Overall for the past 12 months we're not far off average 106% here, November was drier that average and December was hideous.

No hosepipe ban this year.

vegster · Jan 7, 2014

Papa Lazarou said:
Overall for the past 12 months we're not far off average 106% here, November was drier that average and December was hideous.

No hosepipe ban this year.

Worthing Weather quoting 55mm of rain in january so far for the first 7 days ! it's continuing ! I don't think the water table has been this high for ages.

Papa Lazarou · Jan 7, 2014

vegster said:
Worthing Weather quoting 55mm of rain in january so far for the first 7 days ! it's continuing ! I don't think the water table has been this high for ages.

Well, last winter Pond Lane (here in Durrington) reverted to type and water started rising up through the road and seeping out of the Durrington Rec to the north, so the aquifer was very high then. I can see that happening again the winter to be honest. We're right on the spring line here.

Papa Lazarou · Jan 7, 2014

Evening. Whisper it quietly, but there are at last some early signs of potentially cold and snowy weather in the model output at last. The GFS ensemble plus to an extent the ECMWF models are toying with a Scandinavian high, or at least variations on that theme. The 18z ensemble is out about now, so well be worth a look.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=297&y=175

Scoffers · Jan 7, 2014

LamieRobertson said:
i see the Express was back on the snow horror today

Papa Lazarou said:
Evening. Whisper it quietly, but there are at last some early signs of potentially cold and snowy weather in the model output at last. The GFS ensemble plus to an extent the ECMWF models are toying with a Scandinavian high, or at least variations on that theme. The 18z ensemble is out about now, so well be worth a look.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=297&y=175

Hehe, so the Express ARE correct

Papa Lazarou · Jan 8, 2014

Interesting

View attachment 50040

Grombleton · Jan 8, 2014

Papa Lazarou said:
Evening. Whisper it quietly, but there are at last some early signs of potentially cold and snowy weather in the model output at last. The GFS ensemble plus to an extent the ECMWF models are toying with a Scandinavian high, or at least variations on that theme. The 18z ensemble is out about now, so well be worth a look.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=297&y=175

What does that mean in rich dummy terms?

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