[Albion] Brighton's Moneyball Window

Stat Brother · Sep 12, 2017

wallyback said:
I wasn't looking at his cost, just that his stats were good in a particular area - creating chances. May be I don't have a full working knowledge of MoneyBall then.
Could be argued that we are working on his physical contribution to compete in the Premier

For the Albion to have Moneyballed Pascal Gross they would have needed to pick him up from Inglostadt's reserves, his 5th team in 6 years.
Decided his ability to pick a pass far outweighed his lack of mobility (just using that as a hypothetical example) and that pairing him with a young African lad who can only run really fast and shoot first time, was the way to go.

As it is, with all the relevant info to hand (same as everyone else, feck all) my guess is the clubs transfer policy is two-fold.

1 - See what everybody else is doing, do exactly the same, but in reverse order.
WBA start with a £25m bid for Janssen - BHA end with the same deal, having exhausted every other opportunity.

B - Ask a simple question:-
If player x can do what we think he can, how much profit can we make on the deal?

Bigtomfu · Sep 12, 2017

Kalimantan Gull said:
I'm absolutely convinced that Brighton adopts a Moneyball approach to spending our transfer budget, which explains why we haven't splashed out on strikers, so much so I wrote eloquently on the subject here http://www.northstandchat.com/showt...nd-Moneyball-a-hypothesis&highlight=moneyball

Thanks for re-posting that, a good read with the end of the season and another window under our belts.

Not Andy Naylor said:
Correct. Tony Bloom has categorically rejected any comparison between his approach and the way Billy Beane ran the Oakland A's as described in Moneyball. He said as much in his session with the national press before the Man City game and also asked for a reference to Moneyball to be removed from the book Brighton Up. As he said then, Moneyball applies to baseball, a largely static sport in which there are a limited and defined number of outcomes in any given situation. Football, on the other hand, is fluid and has an almost infinite number of possibilities. There is no statistic in football comparable to OBP (on-base percentage) in baseball that is undervalued by rich clubs.

There's no realistic comparison beyond a desire to get better value for your money than your competitors do.

Whilst it's fair to say he asked for the comparison to be withdrawn it would be foolish to not think there's some merit in it. By all means the static sport with limited and defined outcomes v fluidity of football is fair but you're not telling me that someone as astute as TB can't double bluff if he wants to?

Almost certainly some of the principles are followed as we definitely look for statistical abnormalities and arbitrage.

It's a fascinating subject which along with things like 'expected goals - or XG' is either going to ruin or enhance the game. With that in mind I found this an interesting read today:

http://statsbomb.com/2016/04/explaining-and-training-shot-quality/

In essence XG looks at how likely a team are to score before a game (season average using their model) and post match how many goals they should have scored based on the chances their players created.

Some interesting points:

If I said to you Frank Lampard scored a typical type of goal in his career what would you say that was? Tap in, long range, beat men and finish, inside or outside the box?

I would have said long range shots but in actuality the majority of his goals came from inside the box and between the posts - i.e central shots at close quarters rather than anything else.

It's a pertinent example because as their model shows if you can get players and more importantly players through coaching methods to buy into the fact that they're more likely to score if they do simple things like only shoot when directly in front of the goal rather than try from distance or oblique angles etc then they are nearly four times as likely to score than not it could make a massive difference. (Clearly that's an over simplified example but spend ten minutes reading the article, it's worth it.)

GT49er · Sep 12, 2017

Bozza said:
"Brighton are uninterested in the lack of value in the domestic market, and have actively bought from the European market where there is a higher bang for your buck. According to Transfermarkt, Swansea City have spent roughly £45million this window, receiving three first team players permanently and two on loan. Brighton, however, have only spent roughly £42million, but have signed eight first-team players on permanent deals, as well as taking two players on loan."

Eight?

Iggle Piggle · Sep 12, 2017

Weststander said:
I don't know how Merson keeps his SSN job. I like all the others in the Saturday afternoon team - they all offer something coherent, sober, intelligent and with a wealth of football knowledge.

Long before this summer's anti Albion jibes, I couldn't stand Merson on the box. Thick as shite remarks, know-it-all vendettas against clubs such as Spurs and Liverpool, along with the predictable slagging off of Wenger.

Shirley from the thousands of ex players and managers, there are better options for SSN than Merson.

Whilst I don't disagree that Merson is an absolute bell, it's been the TV blueprint to employ an absolute cock end for reasons only TV executives can answer for years. Garth Crooks, Robbie Savage, Micky Quinn, Phil Thompson and Rodney Marsh have all polluted the air waves or TV screens for years with their 'I drank 10 pints the night before we beat QPR so why do these Nancy boys eat skinless chicken' attitudes with nothing to say other than how it was in thier day with no thought to research a thing they've said simply because 'They've played the game' which trumps everything else.

As an example, I turned off Talksport this morning (a regular occurance granted). Talking about Andy Carroll, Brazil opined that the key to John Walk was letting him rest between games due to his dodgy knee. Perhaps West Ham could do the same? Given we are in the era of Sports science, Ice baths, marginal gains and OPTA stats, it is inconceivable that no one down at the Hammers has considered this but I'm sure Brazil nursing his hangover and munching on his 10th bacon sarnie of the day thought he was making a point only he had thought of. The absolute cockwomble.

Jim D · Sep 12, 2017

Triggaaar said:
He does. Played well in his first 10 minutes and cost enough that our recruitment team must have expectations. Can he play alongside March if Knocky plays less well away from home? Or would he be better coming on after 65 minutes for now?

Icy Gull said:
Paul Merson should get his arse over to NSC and sign up "Never heard of them they must be shit" opinions is what NSC excels at

Not at all, it seems the most reliable guide for NSC is FM. If they're highly rated there then they're great signings and if not they're a complete waste of money. What's more, the people making those comments try to justify them after one or two PL appearances, allowing no room for argument.

kevo · Sep 12, 2017

Triggaaar said:
We don't know much, but in the 10 minutes against Watford he used great pace to track back and get a challenge in, so I'd say yes, probably.

That was one of the highlights of his cameo. Superb ttackle.

Claude samdamme · Sep 12, 2017

Skaville said:
For whom? Solly, Knocky and Gros all played a blinder. Hughton would have taken off one of them for a central midfielder if we had one on the bench.

Prob knocky as he faded a bit, but is a tough call. Not a bad problem to have :wink:

Beach Hut · Sep 12, 2017

Gross to me looked a steal and I hope I am proved right as he has quality and going into the peak time of his career.

Even if we sell him for a massive profit worth every penny, £3m was ridiculously cheap

ozzygull · Sep 12, 2017

I am really pleased that the majority of the players that got us up will be given the chance to have a real go in the Premier league, they deserve it. It would seem we have added some quality without upsetting togetherness of the team and we are going to need that more then ever.

I think what we have spent on players is eye watering, and yet the pundits think we have been tightwads. The world has gone mad.

AZ Gull · Sep 12, 2017

GT49er said:
Eight?

That was my thought too. The actual figure is six (when the loans are excluded - Gross, Izquierdo, Propper, Ryan, Schelotto and Suttner).

They must have (erroneously) included any two of Ahannach, Alzate, Mateju or Normann.

gmabel830 · Sep 13, 2017

The theory behind Moneyball is to acquire players undervalued because of a perceived defect.

In the case of Pascal Groß, the perceived defect is that his last name as a "ß" in it.

Bry Nylon · Sep 13, 2017

gmabel830 said:
The theory behind Moneyball is to acquire players undervalued because of a perceived defect.

In the case of Pascal Groß, the perceived defect is that his last name as a "ß" in it.

= reaction of the people who print names on shirts in the club shop.

Stat Brother · Sep 29, 2017

Everything you wanted to know about football analytics is right here from 53:42.

https://www.theguardian.com/footbal...importance-of-analytics-football-weekly-extra

Ted Knutson, the brains behind Brentford, goes in depth about his craft.
He speaks very well about what he does and, from the outside looking in, it sounds exactly like the Albion's transfer business.

Oh and not a single reference to the 'M' word.

Triggaaar · Sep 29, 2017

Stat Brother said:
Ted Knutson, the brains behind Brentford, goes in depth about his craft.

They're 20th in the Championship.

MattBackHome · Sep 29, 2017

Stat Brother said:
Everything you wanted to know about football analytics is right here from 53:42.

https://www.theguardian.com/footbal...importance-of-analytics-football-weekly-extra

Ted Knutson, the brains behind Brentford, goes in depth about his craft.
He speaks very well about what he does and, from the outside looking in, it sounds exactly like the Albion's transfer business.

Oh and not a single reference to the 'M' word.

Knutson is very good on twitter.

Must admit I haven't listened to the GFW since AC Jimbo left. Is it still good?

Stat Brother · Sep 29, 2017

Triggaaar said:
They're 20th in the Championship.

Perhaps they should REEMPLOY him then!

MattBackHome said:
Knutson is very good on twitter.

Must admit I haven't listened to the GFW since AC Jimbo left. Is it still good?

More of the same really, Max likes a divergent strand more than AC, if that's possible, but as everyone else has pretty much stayed the same it's fairly seamless.

Triggaaar · Sep 29, 2017

Stat Brother said:
Perhaps they should REEMPLOY him then!

With the players he helped recruit though, right? And they're still using the same method aren't they?

Stat Brother · Sep 29, 2017

Triggaaar said:
With the players he helped recruit though, right? And they're still using the same method aren't they?

Perhaps you should listen to what he says, first, then comment.

Triggaaar · Sep 29, 2017

Stat Brother said:
Perhaps you should listen to what he says, first, then comment.

Perhaps you should go and put your head in a blender.

MattBackHome · Sep 29, 2017

Triggaaar said:
Perhaps you should go and put your head in a blender.

There's no perhaps about it.

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