[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]

Yoda · Dec 5, 2017

Papa Lazarou said:
The problem of looking that far ahead. Friday looks cold but probably mainly dry here (perhaps the odd wintry shower). What's interesting is the possibility of a slider low running across the South of the UK from the West, which if it goes on a perfect track would give heavy snow here. It all depends on positioning though.

The longer term outlook is very interesting, as the setup gives repeated attempts to establish a block and there is a recurring theme of a Scandi High into mid December.

Very interesting chart watching at the moment.

The sliders have moved too far north on the 06z GFS run, but on the plus side, edging towards the Scandi-blocker for the end of the run again (after the last couple got rid of it).

Driver8 · Dec 5, 2017

Yoda said:
The sliders have moved too far north on the 06z GFS run, but on the plus side, edging towards the Scandi-blocker for the end of the run again (after the last couple got rid of it).

Do I need to get my sledge out in North Wales? We are about 1,000 ft up.

Giraffe · Dec 5, 2017

Yoda said:
The sliders have moved too far north on the 06z GFS run, but on the plus side, edging towards the Scandi-blocker for the end of the run again (after the last couple got rid of it).

That's like sex talk for meteorologists

Papa Lazarou · Dec 5, 2017

Driver8 said:
Do I need to get my sledge out in North Wales? We are about 1,000 ft up.

IF the 6Z came off North Wales would be right in the snow cannon's firing line.

Papa Lazarou · Dec 5, 2017

A yellow warning has been issued for Scotland, NI, and all Western areas of the UK for snow, Friday to Saturday.. We're very much in the 'rain shadow' in the NW wind, so any showers will be few and far between here.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2017-12-08

As [MENTION=1933]Yoda[/MENTION] has mentioned, for Sussex we need to wait.

Driver8 · Dec 5, 2017

Papa Lazarou said:
IF the 6Z came off North Wales would be right in the snow cannon's firing line.

Cool. As long as I can get to Huddersfield!

Papa Lazarou · Dec 5, 2017

Driver8 said:
Cool. As long as I can get to Huddersfield!

Well, Huddersfield is set to be sunny but very cold (Max temp 3C and -1 or -2C at night) whereas Wales will see snow showers Friday to Saturday, so IF you can get out of Wales, you'll be fine.

Flex Your Head · Dec 6, 2017

Any updates please? Rumours that the snow may be tracking further south than originally anticipated; is this likely?

Notters · Dec 6, 2017

Temperatures seem to plunge every time we have an away game up north!

There is now a weather warning out for snow in West Yorkshire Friday into Saturday.

clippedgull · Dec 6, 2017

I don't understand the 'weather' language but these pictures look pretty :lol:

[tweet]938366034398113794[/tweet]

Kalimantan Gull · Dec 6, 2017

Papa Lazarou said:
The problem of looking that far ahead. Friday looks cold but probably mainly dry here (perhaps the odd wintry shower). What's interesting is the possibility of a slider low running across the South of the UK from the West, which if it goes on a perfect track would give heavy snow here. It all depends on positioning though.

The longer term outlook is very interesting, as the setup gives repeated attempts to establish a block and there is a recurring theme of a Scandi High into mid December.

Very interesting chart watching at the moment.

So when you say South of the UK from the West, could you possibly be meaning Cornwall ?

Papa Lazarou · Dec 6, 2017

Kalimantan Gull said:
So when you say South of the UK from the West, could you possibly be meaning Cornwall ?

The latest still has a small low / trough, approaching from the West and sliding SSE across the UK. There is still a large difference in the track, and that's where the uncertainty comes from.

I'd say, that along the Southern coastal strip (say London south) there's a 15% chance of this feature bringing snow.

London to Birmingham 40%

Birmingham to Manchester 75%

North of that the low mainly misses to the South.

But it all depends on the track.

doogie004 · Dec 6, 2017

As a private hire driver I hate this thread when it appears at the top . Believe me nothing more scary than driving on roads in and around Wisborough Green in middle of night or early morning airport runs when you are out the same time as the gritters and the salt has not had chance to do it’s stuff

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Papa Lazarou · Dec 6, 2017

clippedgull said:
I don't understand the 'weather' language but these pictures look pretty

[tweet]938366034398113794[/tweet]

That looks lovely and all, but it's just one possible track. The ensemble doesn't support it, sadly.

However, the Operational run IS run at a higher resolution to the rest, so perhaps it's got it spot on.

Sunday may become a now-cast scenario as the low arrives.

For reference, the 6z ensemble for mid-Sussex looks like this, so actually 25% chance midnight Sun / Mon as the low draws away to the SE.

Kalimantan Gull · Dec 6, 2017

Papa Lazarou said:
The latest still has a small low / trough, approaching from the West and sliding SSE across the UK. There is still a large difference in the track, and that's where the uncertainty comes from.

I'd say, that along the Southern coastal strip (say London south) there's a 15% chance of this feature bringing snow.

London to Birmingham 40%

Birmingham to Manchester 75%

North of that the low mainly misses to the South.

But it all depends on the track.

Right, thanks, well I'll be getting my toboggan ready to head up Bodmin Moor on the offchance....

Papa Lazarou · Dec 6, 2017

The snow potential referred to in the tweet above relates to this feature

Papa Lazarou · Dec 6, 2017

Kalimantan Gull said:
Right, thanks, well I'll be getting my toboggan ready to head up Bodmin Moor on the offchance....

Friday and Saturday will be your best days, with frequent snow showers across the SW.

Papa Lazarou · Dec 6, 2017

Kalimantan Gull said:
Right, thanks, well I'll be getting my toboggan ready to head up Bodmin Moor on the offchance....

Papa Lazarou said:
Friday and Saturday will be your best days, with frequent snow showers across the SW.

This shows the snow potential across the SW Friday into Saturday

Taybha · Dec 7, 2017

Looks like it will actually snow on sunday here in sunny essex , forget the runs forget the estimates and pretty pictures , B&Q have upped their plastic sledge price today from £9.99 to £15 ! it's a sign i tell thee .

LamieRobertson · Dec 7, 2017

Papa Lazarou said:
Friday and Saturday will be your best days, with frequent snow showers across the SW.

I was supposed to be on holiday on the West Country this weekend.. not sure if i’m happy or sad that I had to cancel

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