[Albion] All the permutations

J

Joshski

Active member

Mar 18, 2008

567

• Apr 24, 2016

• #61

I think A draw v Derby and a win at Boro will be the sequence!

 

M

MattBackHome

Well-known member

Jul 7, 2003

11,723

• Apr 25, 2016

• #62

Right I've crunched the numbers across all 243 permutations. I've assigned a Probability to each of the three results in each of the 5 events (based on teams' home & away performances) and chucked it into Excel. Here's the crux:

Promoted - Albion to finish at least a point clear of 3rd: 48%
Undecided - Goal Difference to come into play: 22%
PLayoffs - Albion to finish 3rd: 30%

However - I reckon a very large chunk of that middle 22% has us not quite making it.

So basically I'm saying it's on a toin coss.

What a time to be alive!

 

chaileyjem

#BarberIn

NSC Patron

Jun 27, 2012

13,876

• Apr 30, 2016

• #63

so here are the permutations UPDATED after last night Boro draw v Brum. 4 promoted scenarios now in our hands.

Brighton L L - Promoted only if Burnley LL by more goals than Albion's LL and the +3
Brighton W D - Promoted
Brighton D W - Promoted.
Brighton D L or L D - Promoted ONLY if Burnley L L
Brighton W L - Promoted only if Burnley either a) don't win again this season or b) promoted on goal difference if Burnley win once and can swing back the 3 goal difference and don't get thumped at Boro.
Brighton WW - Promoted
Brighton L W - Promoted
Brighton D D - Promoted only if Burnley only get 1 point from QPR / Charlton

Schedule
Mon: May 2nd: 2pm Albion v Derby
Mon: May 2nd: 4.30pm Burnley v QPR
Saturday May 7th: Charlton v Burnley
Saturday May 7th: Boro v Albion

 

sparkie

Well-known member

Jul 17, 2003

12,504

Hove

• Apr 30, 2016

• #64

After the Middlesbrough draw it us down to 81 possible permutations ( or 54 if Burnley Win then Loss is treated the same as Loss then Win etc. ).