[Politics] Brexit

Titanic · Oct 27, 2016

As this is now the running thread for all topics around BrExit, the impact on the £, economy, future trade deals etc... I have merged the latest thread about Nissan and changed the title from: "Pound absolutelty trashed on FX Markets !! Below US1.20 & €1.10"

BigGully · Oct 27, 2016

Titanic said:
You've just made that up, haven't you?

You have no idea what the terms of a trade deal will be between the UK and EU.

Can you really see Germany wanting a 10% tariff on 800,000 cars they export to the UK??

This is it though, we are now able (or very soon anyway) to make our own deals that can positively impact on our business relationships with anyone.

beorhthelm · Oct 27, 2016

ManOfSussex said:
I wish they'd been a betting market available for the first 2 to come along to defend these figures,

is there something to defend then? are you saying it should have been higher (expectation of 0.3% was penciled in)? what would you expect it to be without brexit? i cant say what the precise forecast from the Remain camp was, pretty certain it involved heading towards or in recession, and that is manifestly not the case.

Titanic · Oct 27, 2016

beorhthelm said:
is there something to defend then? are you saying it should have been higher (expectation of 0.3% was penciled in)? what would you expect it to be without brexit? i cant say what the precise forecast from the Remain camp was, pretty certain it involved heading towards or in recession, and that is manifestly not the case.

Taken from Guido Fawkes... (clearly it is still early days but this was supposed to be the immediate impact/emergency budget etc...)

beorhthelm · Oct 27, 2016

I remember the good times said:
No, serious question.
If we get up and leave the EU there will be tarrifs. Right now we don't know what will happen. The fact that the PM has had a chat with Nissan after which Nissan are staying in the UK makes me wonder if some deal has already been made with the EU.
You say I don't know what the terms of a trade deal will be so are Nissan gambling, I doubt it.
Serious question.

I recall that much of the Nissan output goes to either the UK or non-EU markets (including back to Japan). so the worse case scenario of say 10% tariffs on UK produced cars imported into the EU may not be much of a problem for Nissan to absorb. either way, there is and always has been more to production siting than simply being in the EU, contrary to what the remain camp have said, such as EU based manufacturers building outside the EU, US owners moving production out of EU etc. cost of labour is far bigger than tariffs.

JC Footy Genius · Oct 27, 2016

ManOfSussex said:
I wish they'd been a betting market available for the first 2 to come along to defend these figures, because I'd have put a fair few of the devaluing pounds in my pocket on it being you two.

Just trying to keep things in perspective. Also shows how much we care about the mental well being of our fellow Albion fans ... as some seem to be permanently depressed or teetering on the brink of doing something more drastic.

:angel:

ManOfSussex · Oct 27, 2016

beorhthelm said:
is there something to defend then? are you saying it should have been higher (expectation of 0.3% was penciled in)? what would you expect it to be without brexit? i cant say what the precise forecast from the Remain camp was, pretty certain it involved heading towards or in recession, and that is manifestly not the case.

Comment should have been the world I used, rather than defend. As I say, I'd put a fair few of the devaluing pounds in my pocket on it being you and [MENTION=33253]JC Footy Genius[/MENTION] being the first to do so, that was all. :lolol:

I'm very pleased Brexit is manifestly never going to cause a recession though.

studio150 · Oct 27, 2016

Soulman said:
To keep answering constant questions when they have been dealt with many times is tiresome,

When do you ever answer questions, so can not be tiresome.

ManOfSussex · Oct 27, 2016

Belgium's regions have reached an agreement on Ceta.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37788882

vegster · Oct 27, 2016

BigGully said:
Told you, suddenly pushing their discredited forecasting skills a little further upstream and into the future

Oh I see, you deny that there are or will be, problems with the Pound compared to the Euro and the Dollar ? That's an interesting position to take unless you are a manufacturer of rose tinted spectacles ?

Baldseagull · Oct 27, 2016

I remember the good times said:
No, serious question.
If we get up and leave the EU there will be tarrifs. Right now we don't know what will happen. The fact that the PM has had a chat with Nissan after which Nissan are staying in the UK makes me wonder if some deal has already been made with the EU.
You say I don't know what the terms of a trade deal will be so are Nissan gambling, I doubt it.
Serious question.

I don't think they are gambling by staying here for the time being, they are making hay while the sun shines. It is a gamble to do anything other than consider the best moves IF we end up out of the EU, and outside of the single market.

With the pound devalued so much, Britain is better right now than it has ever been for Nissan, the issue may come when we actually exit, but I suspect that if tarriffs are in use on car import/export initially, Nissan will gain sales in the UK and other European countries outside of the EU, to compensate a little for losses in the EU, but cars are likely to be tarriff free in any deal we eventually secure as Germany, France and Spain all enjoy good sales figures here and will want to be competitive in our market.
There is a longer term problem for them on the horizon though, if the Brexiteers are right and Britain booms, the pound will rise and make exports to Europe more expensive than EU built cars, but this is unlikely to happen for 10 or 15 years, if ever, in my opinion. It may be that eventually Nissan will have a plant here and one in the EU, and scale up or down production at either to suit the economic conditions of the time, or the demand for particular models in each market.

nicko31 · Oct 27, 2016

BigGully said:
This is it though, we are now able (or very soon anyway) to make our own deals that can positively impact on our business relationships with anyone.

I'm curious where the huge new untapped market? What is the UK going to sell them? Where are we currently missing out due to the constraints of being tied to those nasty Europeans?

Gwylan · Oct 27, 2016

Baldseagull said:
cars are likely to be tarriff free in any deal we eventually secure as Germany, France and Spain all enjoy good sales figures here and will want to be competitive in our market.

I keep seeing this: I'm not so sure that it will happen. The EU will surely take the longer view. "Markus Kerber, head of the BDI, dismissed claims that German companies would not tolerate trade tariffs after Britain leaves, and said Germany’s relations with the rest of the bloc were more important.

“I have read a lot of articles in the British press saying Germany would be a relatively soft negotiator because 7.5% of German exports go to Britain,” Kerber told BBC Radio 4’s today programme. “Well, 7.5% is a big number – but 92.5% goes somewhere else.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...ot-save-britain-from-hard-brexit-warns-merke/

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/29/german-business-leader-warning-brexit-trade-uk

Lincoln Imp · Oct 27, 2016

Soulman said:
Really, I think you could look back many months and years to see.

Afraid you're wrong. Your claim that people are calling all Leave voters thick racist morons exists only in your mind.

Green Cross Code Man · Oct 27, 2016

Lincoln Imp said:
Afraid you're wrong. Your claim that people are calling all Leave voters thick racist morons exists only in your mind.

No, it is true that many (but not all) remain voters have been saying all of those things. Hence the corollary that because remain voters were more qualified, that leave voters were thick for example. Just like many leave voters have accused remain voters of being unpatriotic as the idea of England on its own may engender a greater patriotic perception for some people. Both cases are unjustified and used to stereotype. There have been many cases where mudslinging has occurred, it's unpalatable and serves no purpose other than to antagonise the other side when healing of our country is more desirable.

studio150 · Oct 27, 2016

Green Cross Code Man said:
No, it is true that many (but not all) remain voters have been saying all of those things. Hence the corollary that because remain voters were more qualified, that leave voters were thick for example. Just like many leave voters have accused remain voters of being unpatriotic as the idea of England on its own may engender a greater patriotic perception for some people. Both cases are unjustified and used to stereotype. There have been many cases where mudslinging has occurred, it's unpalatable and serves no purpose other than to antagonise the other side when healing of our country is more desirable.

You seem to be missing the point, a comment was made by a Leaver on this thread which suggested that Remainers on this thread were calling the 17m racist etc, when such a comment had not been made. I think that your suggestion that 'many' Remainers have said this is over stated to say the least. Yes there was a outcome where people who study polls, stated that a large part of the leave vote came from 'ordinary workers', and that a large part of the remain vote came from those with a university education.

You therefore need to divorce the public perception from actual posts on this and other related threads.

If you can provide evidence of where people have on these threads accused leavers of being racist, by all means share with us all.

Deleted member 22389 · Oct 27, 2016

The BBC are so negative it is unbelievable. You can here some of these presenters seething today when they have to mention that Nissan wants to build the new model at Sunderland. They just interviewed someone from Sunderland on Radio 5, and instead of the presenter saying this is great news, all he was interested in what sort of deal they where getting, waiting for anything negative to come out, so he and Bremoaner listeners can get their daily fix of doom and gloom.

Soulman · Oct 27, 2016

bashlsdir said:
The BBC are so negative it is unbelievable. You can here some of these presenters seething today when they have to mention that Nissan wants to build the new model at Sunderland. They just interviewed someone from Sunderland on Radio 5, and instead of the presenter saying this is great news, all he was interested in what sort of deal they where getting, waiting for anything negative to come out, so he and Bremoaner listeners can get their daily fix of doom and gloom.

Best not to watch the BBC News, very anti in my opinion. Channel 4 does a better job.

Baldseagull · Oct 27, 2016

Gwylan said:
I keep seeing this: I'm not so sure that it will happen. The EU will surely take the longer view. "Markus Kerber, head of the BDI, dismissed claims that German companies would not tolerate trade tariffs after Britain leaves, and said Germany’s relations with the rest of the bloc were more important.

“I have read a lot of articles in the British press saying Germany would be a relatively soft negotiator because 7.5% of German exports go to Britain,” Kerber told BBC Radio 4’s today programme. “Well, 7.5% is a big number – but 92.5% goes somewhere else.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...ot-save-britain-from-hard-brexit-warns-merke/

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/29/german-business-leader-warning-brexit-trade-uk

We are all guessing at the moment, but if we do not do a deal where we are included in the single market as a whole, a deal will be done eventually that will include reduced or no tarriffs on some types of products, motor cars are likely to be one of the products on reduced or zero tariffs, in my opinion, because they are one of those products that require the largest possible market for scales of mass production to be effective. It is not just German made cars, France, Spain, Italy, Poland and Belgium all produce models that we buy in good numbers. It would be damaging to those countries to have the models they produce battered on price in Britain by tarriffs on top of by the Euro being stronger against the pound.

Baldseagull · Oct 27, 2016

Green Cross Code Man said:
No, it is true that many (but not all) remain voters have been saying all of those things. Hence the corollary that because remain voters were more qualified, that leave voters were thick for example. Just like many leave voters have accused remain voters of being unpatriotic as the idea of England on its own may engender a greater patriotic perception for some people. Both cases are unjustified and used to stereotype. There have been many cases where mudslinging has occurred, it's unpalatable and serves no purpose other than to antagonise the other side when healing of our country is more desirable.

Not all leavers are racist, but I bet you nearly all racists voted leave.

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