[Politics] Brexit

hans kraay fan club · Jul 30, 2018

Giraffe said:
And it is exactly this kind of insult that hardens the leave vote. Thank you.

No problem. I wasn't trying to soften it. There's no point - as you say - the views of the easily led are now entrenched, having been duped by folk far more skilled in their arts than I. No point trying to win them round.

Nor any need. The decisive swing in any further consultation will not be from anyone changing their minds - it will be from galvanizing the complacent, who didn't think they needed to vote last time.

Greg Bobkin · Jul 30, 2018

goldstone said:
Votes on here so far confirm that NSC is full of left-leaning halfwits who want us to be ruled by Brussels.

Funny, I thought we were ruled by the Conservative party...

seagulls4ever · Jul 30, 2018

A1X said:
[TWEET]1023796075704938496[/TWEET]
[TWEET]1023796327585538050[/TWEET]

Neither of those polls are specific to what was called garbage, and Sky aren't regarded as a respected pollster as far as I can tell (never see them mentioned by organisations which aggregate or report poll results). Pollsters have different methodologies/samples to try and make things representative from a relatively small sample size - no idea how Sky compares.

Giraffe · Jul 30, 2018

hans kraay fan club said:
No problem. I wasn't trying to soften it. There's no point - as you say - the views of the easily led are now entrenched, having been duped by folk far more skilled in their arts than I. No point trying to win them round.

Nor any need. The decisive swing in any further consultation will not be from anyone changing their minds - it will be from galvanizing the complacent, who didn't think they needed to vote last time.

You really think there will be a second vote? I'll be amazed if there is. Would be political suicide for whoever called it. Ask David Cameron.

A1X · Jul 30, 2018

Swillis said:
The unrest another vote would cause would be many times worse, it won't just be scumbags either.

This tired old trope again?

Last year Nigel Farage tried to organise a 100,000 strong march on the High Court during the Gina Miller proceedings in an attempt to convince them "the public want to leave now". 7 people turned up for that march. Nigel Farage wasn't one of them.

You'll get the usual suspects turn up for a punch up in Trafalgar Square and can't resist the urge, but realistically there is not going to be "civil unrest" if the Government rescinded Article 50 tomorrow.

hans kraay fan club · Jul 30, 2018

Swillis said:
So keep wanting another throw of the dice until you get what you want is not infantile?

Well, no. It's nothing of the kind. You could call it many things, but peacefully campaigning for what you see as good for the country, isn't 'infantile', no.

Shouting at people to 'just get on with it' (regardless of the damage), is rather more so.

Swillis said:
Not so long ago we had severe riots because some scumbag drug dealer was killed by police which in turn led another load of scumbags to go and get their shopping for free. The unrest another vote would cause would be many times worse, it won't just be scumbags either.

Well, yes it would. If people start causing public disorder and looting shops, because they and their peers have been asked to counter or ratify a government decision, then they are certainly 'scumbags' in my book. Are remain voters currently ransacking their local corner shops, because they lost (get over it)?

Swillis · Jul 30, 2018

A1X said:
This tired old trope again?

Last year Nigel Farage tried to organise a 100,000 strong march on the High Court during the Gina Miller proceedings in an attempt to convince them "the public want to leave now". 7 people turned up for that march. Nigel Farage wasn't one of them.

You'll get the usual suspects turn up for a punch up in Trafalgar Square and can't resist the urge, but realistically there is not going to be "civil unrest" if the Government rescinded Article 50 tomorrow.

Sorry I think you are wrong. Anyway that's just my choice to have that opinion though, no doubt you will want to bang on and on in the hope I will change my mind.

Nixonator · Jul 30, 2018

A1X said:
This tired old trope again?

Last year Nigel Farage tried to organise a 100,000 strong march on the High Court during the Gina Miller proceedings in an attempt to convince them "the public want to leave now". 7 people turned up for that march. Nigel Farage wasn't one of them.

You'll get the usual suspects turn up for a punch up in Trafalgar Square and can't resist the urge, but realistically there is not going to be "civil unrest" if the Government rescinded Article 50 tomorrow.

Careful, it's exactly this kind of thinking which lost you the vote in the first place.

For every outspoken remainer, and god knows there are enough of the migrainous inducing gobshites, there are as many sitting on their silent leave vote if ever called upon again.

spring hall convert · Jul 30, 2018

Swillis said:
The unrest another vote would cause would be many times worse, it won't just be scumbags either.

Worse than the murder of a sitting MP?

hans kraay fan club · Jul 30, 2018

Giraffe said:
You really think there will be a second vote? I'll be amazed if there is. Would be political suicide for whoever called it. Ask David Cameron.

On In/Out, no, I don't.

On the terms of out, maybe.

And on your second point - TM is on such shaky ground anyway, that who knows? She may find herself with nothing to lose (in terms of her personal political standing).

Swillis · Jul 30, 2018

hans kraay fan club said:
Well, no. It's nothing of the kind. You could call it many things, but peacefully campaigning for what you see as good for the country, isn't 'infantile', no.

Shouting at people to 'just get on with it' (regardless of the damage), is rather more so.

Well, yes it would. If people start causing public disorder and looting shops, because they and their peers have been asked to counter or ratify a government decision, then they are certainly #scumbags' in my book. Are remain voters currently ransacking their local corner shops, because they lost (get over it)?

No remain voters are whining everywhere you look and accusing others who do not share their opinion as being infantile, racist, stupid etc. I think there would certainly be protests and protests attract the scumbags. I think it will also push otherwise law abiding people to act out of character.

seagulls4ever · Jul 30, 2018

nwgull said:
About 1 million deaths per year in the the U.K., of which approx half are over 75s. If you take this group as being 75% leave, that means that leave loses 750 000 votes in the past 2 years, so a 500 000 swing to remain. What’s probably more significant is that there’ll have been something like 3m newly registered voters since 2016 with the large numbers registering in time for last year’s GE. Most of them would be young and probably 75% remain, so that could swing it by a further 1.5m.

Turnout is key though: it was estimated that only 36% of 18-24 year olds voted last time.

Have you just plucked those figures out of thin air? I think deaths per year is closer to around 600k. Not sure about ages of the deaths. One estimate for leave 65+ was 64% (not sure it would go up to 75% for 75+). Turnout is key as you said, but you it is not part of your calculations (18-24 turnout was later estimated to be 64%). Don't know figures for 3m, but birth rate (does not factor all) for those coming in since last time is about 1.4m (but again, don't know turnout of this pop).

In short, I don't know the exact figures myself, but I don't trust yours!

mejonaNO12 aka riskit · Jul 30, 2018

EU tribalism is so fun to watch.

Pathetic

But fun.

Let me be clear, there is a massive difference between reasoned debate and the tribalism which I refer to.

Swillis · Jul 30, 2018

spring hall convert said:
Worse than the murder of a sitting MP?

What do you mean?

WATFORD zero · Jul 30, 2018

I do hope everyone has remembered to vote from all of their NSC accounts :angel:

GT49er · Jul 30, 2018

Simster said:
I do think though, that we need to have a 20 year review built into whatever outcome transpires.

Yes, could quite happily go along with that (though perhaps would opt for 40 rather than 20 years as that was the previous gap between referendums). Perfectly valid to give the British voters a chance to vote for re-joining the United States of Europe (with no opt-outs available to new members, of course), joining the Euro, handing over control of our armed forces to the Combined European Defence Force, doing away with all border checks, etc. Probably being made to give up our pints and miles too. I wonder if they'd insist that we conform to EU standards and drive on the right?

Yes, by all means offer that to the British public in 20/40 years time. Good luck! :thumbsup:

happypig · Jul 30, 2018

We had a vote to leave. Had leaving been the piece of cake that Gove, Farage, Johnson et al said it would be, then a deal would have ben done and dusted a year ago & The NHS would be planning for how to spend the extra £10bn a year, not planning how to cope with possible shortages of life sustaining medicines like insulin.
Had that been the case then we might well have "got over it".
However, after more than two years of "negotiating" we don't have a the good deal we were promised and we don't have a bad deal that would be worse than no deal, we have a Prime Minister trying to cobble together something that will end up satisfying no-one so, in those circumstances, it makes sense to go back to the people and say "Now we know where we stand, Is this still what you want ?"
A three-way referendum (deal/no deal/remain) with a single transferable vote would mean leave votes were not split.

Thunder Bolt · Jul 30, 2018

goldstone said:
Votes on here so far confirm that NSC is full of left-leaning halfwits who want us to be ruled by Brussels.

We've never been ruled by Brussels. Try finding out how it actually works before posting silly soundbites.

spring hall convert · Jul 30, 2018

Swillis said:
What do you mean?

The last referendum built a chap into such a state of frenzy that he thought it was the right thing to do to murder Jo Cox.

Which is part of why I'm objected to another one. The atmosphere in this country for those weeks was the worst I've ever known it.

Nixonator · Jul 30, 2018

nwgull said:
About 1 million deaths per year in the the U.K., of which approx half are over 75s. If you take this group as being 75% leave, that means that leave loses 750 000 votes in the past 2 years, so a 500 000 swing to remain. What’s probably more significant is that there’ll have been something like 3m newly registered voters since 2016 with the large numbers registering in time for last year’s GE. Most of them would be young and probably 75% remain, so that could swing it by a further 1.5m.

Turnout is key though: it was estimated that only 36% of 18-24 year olds voted last time.

So we just need to cull all the old people and the country would be better served?

The wisdom of youth eh.

Your statistics don't stand up to scrutiny either by the way, I guess they have probably been tweeted around the block enough times to be accepted as fact though. Why did I have to be born in this century.

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