6 wins...?

mreprice · Feb 27, 2017

The problem with your theory is that this year the record for most points without finishing in the top 2 could be broken - if Huddersfield keep up anything like their current form. It's easy to have a scenario where Huddersfield get 94 points and miss out on the automatic places.

Bozza · Feb 27, 2017

I'm not sure anyone is suggesting that if we win 6 matches, Hughton sends the players out on the piss even if both Newcastle and Huddersfield are still breathing down our necks.

It is fun/interesting to speculate where the line will be that separates those who have to endure the play-offs and those who get to start their Summer holidays early, particularly given last season.

What I find almost unbelievable is that we're still in February, yet we're able to talk in terms of a relatively small number of victories that may be required to get us into the Premier League, and that we're already got a points tally that can get a team into the play-offs (although probably not this season).

Exile · Feb 27, 2017

sparkie said:
34 points guarantees promotion as of today.

Quite. The current GUARANTEED promotion target is 105 points (though given the GD differentials, 104 OUGHT to be enough, too).

No point worrying about how many MIGHT be enough - not after last year's heartache.

Giraffe · Feb 27, 2017

It is very likely now that three teams will get 90+ points. But only one will get 100+ points and that will be us. Nailed on.

This could easily happen.

Don Quixote · Feb 27, 2017

Eleven wins and it's certain. That's surely the aim.

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heathgate · Feb 27, 2017

Bozza said:
I'm not sure anyone is suggesting that if we win 6 matches, Hughton sends the players out on the piss even if both Newcastle and Huddersfield are still breathing down our necks.

It is fun/interesting to speculate where the line will be that separates those who have to endure the play-offs and those who get to start their Summer holidays early, particularly given last season.

What I find almost unbelievable is that we're still in February, yet we're able to talk in terms of a relatively small number of victories that may be required to get us into the Premier League, and that we're already got a points tally that can get a team into the play-offs (although probably not this season).

Exactly....

I think 91/92 may just do it.... all 3 top three teams will drop points.

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symyjym · Feb 27, 2017

All promotion form teams will average at least 2 points a game. This would put Newcastle on 96 and Huddersfield on 91 and us on 97. Huddersfield though have pretty much been averaging 3 points a game so if they win all 13 games their total will be 104, so we have to hope that they drop 8 points along the way which could mean drawing 4 games or losing a couple and drawing one.

I don't think 90 points will be good enough for promotion, and it will be more like 95+.

Psychobilly freakout · Feb 27, 2017

Giraffe said:
It is very likely now that three teams will get 90+ points. But only one will get 100+ points and that will be us. Nailed on.

This could easily happen.

sorry fella, that is pants....

You have neither us, Huddersfield or Newcastle losing a game.

That is not gonna happen I predict we will lose at Leeds, Norwich, Wolves and possibly Villa maybe QPR

Oh heck stop this there are no givens in this league...

I'm going back to bed

Giraffe · Feb 27, 2017

Psychobilly freakout said:
sorry fella, that is pants....

You have neither us, Huddersfield or Newcastle losing a game.

That is not gonna happen I predict we will lose at Leeds, Norwich, Wolves and possibly Villa maybe QPR

Oh heck stop this there are no givens in this league...

I'm going back to bed

It's based on a non biased equation as follows:

If at home to top ten - draw
If at home to anyone else - win

If away to top twelve - draw
If away to anyone else - win

The total points may be a little overstated, but I'm expecting the gaps to be about right.

Goldstone1976 · Feb 27, 2017

Giraffe said:
The total points may be a little overstated, but I'm expecting the gaps to be about right.

I understand your formula, and it has logic. However, imo, there'll be nothing like a 10 point gap between us and the team in second come the end of the season.

Fancy a small bet? To keep it easy, I'll wager that the gap between 1st and 2nd will be 8 points or fewer at the end of the season, irrespective of which two teams take those spots. £10 to AITC or REMF?

RustyKent · Feb 27, 2017

Giraffe said:
It's based on a non biased equation as follows:

If at home to top ten - draw
If at home to anyone else - win

If away to top twelve - draw
If away to anyone else - win

The total points may be a little overstated, but I'm expecting the gaps to be about right.

How does that work when Huddersfield play NUFC on Saturday?

sparkie · Feb 27, 2017

RustyKent said:
How does that work when Huddersfield play NUFC on Saturday?

Draw ?

Greg Bobkin · Feb 27, 2017

dazzer6666 said:
One game at a time.................................although I can genuinely see us steamrollering our way through the rest of the season if we win tomorrow. Confidence will be through the roof, opponents will be half-beaten before the game starts and we play much, much better (like Saturday) when that's the case.

I know, blind optimism. Shoot me now.

Have you read the official match threads, Dazza? Some posters on here can't cope with one HALF at a time without going through the whole spectrum of emotions and back again, let alone a whole MATCH

Moshe Gariani · Feb 27, 2017

Goldstone1976 said:
I understand your formula, and it has logic. However, imo, there'll be nothing like a 10 point gap between us and the team in second come the end of the season.

Fancy a small bet? To keep it easy, I'll wager that the gap between 1st and 2nd will be 8 points or fewer at the end of the season, irrespective of which two teams take those spots. £10 to AITC or REMF?

Incredible that we are now discussing a 10 point gap to SECOND place....!!!

And it is actually possible...

We win tomorrow night.
Then HUD/NEW draw and we beat Forest on Saturday.

With 11 games left to play each, we would be already 6pts ahead of Newcastle and est. "9pts" ahead of Huddersfield.

Given our form and run in there is no reason why those gaps couldn't be extended further by the end of the season.

Giraffe · Feb 27, 2017

RustyKent said:
How does that work when Huddersfield play NUFC on Saturday?

A draw. As it is predicted for us v Newcastle

Giraffe · Feb 27, 2017

Goldstone1976 said:
I understand your formula, and it has logic. However, imo, there'll be nothing like a 10 point gap between us and the team in second come the end of the season.

Fancy a small bet? To keep it easy, I'll wager that the gap between 1st and 2nd will be 8 points or fewer at the end of the season, irrespective of which two teams take those spots. £10 to AITC or REMF?

Six points from third and you have a deal :smile:

BangaloreGull · Feb 27, 2017

symyjym said:
All promotion form teams will average at least 2 points a game. This would put Newcastle on 96 and Huddersfield on 91 and us on 97. Huddersfield though have pretty much been averaging 3 points a game so if they win all 13 games their total will be 104, so we have to hope that they drop 8 points along the way which could mean drawing 4 games or losing a couple and drawing one.

I don't think 90 points will be good enough for promotion, and it will be more like 95+.

I will post here what I put on the "teams that can't catch us" thread and got told off for putting it on the wrong thread

I went through game by game and did my predictions yesterday. I tried to ignore my usual pessimism and be realistic. I got to Newcastle 95, Huddersfield 94, us 92. That had us drawing with Newcastle, so if we win tomorrow, same predictions would have us all on 94 and us going up on goal difference. Not sure my ticker could cope! I think my Brighton projections were pretty realistic - I am hoping that my Huddersfield / Newcastle one gave them too much credit, but on another thread I saw a projection where Huddersfield finished on 92, whilst drawing 4 in a row starting against Reading. . . well they won that one so that would support 94.

I know, One game at a time. . . we were great for last two games, keep playing like that I am sure we will be fine.

dwayne · Feb 27, 2017

Looking like wolves and QPR will have nothing to play for when we meet them. They are also 2 of the worst home teams in the league.

Kalimantan Gull · Feb 27, 2017

BangaloreGull said:
I will post here what I put on the "teams that can't catch us" thread and got told off for putting it on the wrong thread

I went through game by game and did my predictions yesterday. I tried to ignore my usual pessimism and be realistic. I got to Newcastle 95, Huddersfield 94, us 92. That had us drawing with Newcastle, so if we win tomorrow, same predictions would have us all on 94 and us going up on goal difference. Not sure my ticker could cope! I think my Brighton projections were pretty realistic - I am hoping that my Huddersfield / Newcastle one gave them too much credit, but on another thread I saw a projection where Huddersfield finished on 92, whilst drawing 4 in a row starting against Reading. . . well they won that one so that would support 94.

I know, One game at a time. . . we were great for last two games, keep playing like that I am sure we will be fine.

BangaloreGull · Feb 27, 2017

Kalimantan Gull said:
View attachment 82544

Yep - that is what I feel like! It is not what I look like mind. . . wrong sex, age and colour!

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