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[Politics] Tonight,s EU vote and the margin of defeat ?



Sussex Nomad

Well-known member
Aug 26, 2010
18,185
EP
I hope Trotsky Corbyn does call a vote of no confidence. When he loses he may just find out no matter how unpopular the Govt, he is disliked even more. I look forward to his humiliation.
 






Napper

Well-known member
Jul 9, 2003
23,872
Sussex
I hope Trotsky Corbyn does call a vote of no confidence. When he loses he may just find out no matter how unpopular the Govt, he is disliked even more. I look forward to his humiliation.

media must of told you this.

Open your eyes and see what this wretched tory party have done to the country , rather than focusing on the opposition as the media tell you to.
 


Lincoln Imp

Well-known member
Feb 2, 2009
5,964
It depends partly on what amendments are passed beforehand, although the maths are opaque. For example, one such amendment would make a no-deal impossible - this might mean that some no-dealers would vote for the May deal on the basis that there is nothing to be gained by seeing it fail. (On the other hand of course the same amendment would encourage Peoples-voters to do the exact opposite and vote against May's deal.)

147?
 


Sussex Nomad

Well-known member
Aug 26, 2010
18,185
EP
media must of told you this.

Open your eyes and see what this wretched tory party have done to the country , rather than focusing on the opposition as the media tell you to.

Ah, thanks for letting me know. Comments like yours actually say everything about you.
 




Horton's halftime iceberg

Blooming Marvellous
Jan 9, 2005
16,484
Brighton
It depends partly on what amendments are passed beforehand, although the maths are opaque. For example, one such amendment would make a no-deal impossible - this might mean that some no-dealers would vote for the May deal on the basis that there is nothing to be gained by seeing it fail. (On the other hand of course the same amendment would encourage Peoples-voters to do the exact opposite and vote against May's deal.)

147?

Hilary Benn has withdrawn his amendment that would rule out a no deal Brexit.

[tweet]1085070276499513344[/tweet]
 




TheJasperCo

Well-known member
Jan 20, 2012
4,590
Exeter
These things never turn out as dramatically as the worst-case scenarios, sadly. I think the Press Association's assessment is likely to be close to the mark, so ~170 margin of defeat.
 




knocky1

Well-known member
Jan 20, 2010
12,963
Anyone getting a stiffy at the thought of Theresa May and Whips? Unfortunately they'll be used to flog her dead horse.

176 with a 5% error margin.
 




Lincoln Imp

Well-known member
Feb 2, 2009
5,964
I hope Trotsky Corbyn does call a vote of no confidence. When he loses he may just find out no matter how unpopular the Govt, he is disliked even more. I look forward to his humiliation.


It is difficult to see how Corbyn could win this given that the DUP will support May. Nevertheless, he is under great pressure from his party to call a vote, not because they think he will win but because he has said that if a general election is proved not to be possible then the Labour Party will support a second referendum.

This support might make Ref2 Parliament's favoured option. I can't see that Corbyn has much to lose if his party takes this course - they would certainly dress up the decision with references to 'the failure of the Government to provide a lead means that Labour has, with great reluctance, concluded that the only way forward is to consult the people...' etc etc. There's some downside for the party but it could be managed. On the other hand there is a great potential upside for Labour - not least because if Remain were to win a second referendum the Conservative Party would collapse
 






Is it PotG?

Thrifty non-licker
Feb 20, 2017
23,299
Sussex by the Sea
It is difficult to see how Corbyn could win this given that the DUP will support May. Nevertheless, he is under great pressure from his party to call a vote, not because they think he will win but because he has said that if a general election is proved not to be possible then the Labour Party will support a second referendum.

This support might make Ref2 Parliament's favoured option. I can't see that Corbyn has much to lose if his party takes this course - they would certainly dress up the decision with references to 'the failure of the Government to provide a lead means that Labour has, with great reluctance, concluded that the only way forward is to consult the people...' etc etc. There's some downside for the party but it could be managed. On the other hand there is a great potential upside for Labour - not least because if Remain were to win a second referendum the Conservative Party would collapse

Where would 'Leaver' Comrade Corbyn be in such a scenario as above?
 


Sussex Nomad

Well-known member
Aug 26, 2010
18,185
EP
It is difficult to see how Corbyn could win this given that the DUP will support May. Nevertheless, he is under great pressure from his party to call a vote, not because they think he will win but because he has said that if a general election is proved not to be possible then the Labour Party will support a second referendum.

This support might make Ref2 Parliament's favoured option. I can't see that Corbyn has much to lose if his party takes this course - they would certainly dress up the decision with references to 'the failure of the Government to provide a lead means that Labour has, with great reluctance, concluded that the only way forward is to consult the people...' etc etc. There's some downside for the party but it could be managed. On the other hand there is a great potential upside for Labour - not least because if Remain were to win a second referendum the Conservative Party would collapse

If there were a second referendum it has to be more than a yes/no vote and the British public need to be fully informed as opposed to soundbites made from the first referendum. Many, on both sides were quite simply fooled into the hype. Incredibly startling how quiet Johnson has been in the past week or so. However I still don't think the Tories would collapse, simply because too many people do not trust Corbyn to be let loose with our country.
 




Greg Bobkin

Silver Seagull
May 22, 2012
14,837
Is it POTG? :dunce:
 


JC Footy Genius

Bringer of TRUTH
Jun 9, 2015
10,568
Hilary Benn has withdrawn his amendment that would rule out a no deal Brexit.

[tweet]1085070276499513344[/tweet]

The Remain, ignore/subvert the referendum result forces are on manoeuvres. Bercow didn't pick any amendment that may help the government reduce the size of the defeat and Benn knows his amendment could have passed making it more likely Brexiteer Mp's would reluctantly vote for May's deal so he withdrew it.

Size of defeat 150 ish
 


blue-shifted

Banned
Feb 20, 2004
7,645
a galaxy far far away
No idea of the figures.

Crushing, but slightly less crushing than predicted
 


nicko31

Well-known member
Jan 7, 2010
17,567
Gods country fortnightly
How big does it have to be to declare her deal completely dead?

If I was a Brexiteer I would be voting for this, its still Brexit but the only Brexit possible that's not no deal.

I've always believed and have said on here numerous times the Brexiteers are the biggest threat to Brexit and that's still the case
 








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