Sorrel
Well-known member
There is a Remainer majority in parliament who are looking for an excuse to get a second referendum in. When the vote on the 11th is lost, probably in concord with the EU, a choreographed series of steps will be taken by several MPs:
- MPs will announce that no deal will happen.
- Therefore, they will say, this is an extraordinary time and they must take different decisions to normal
- The EU will offer to delay article 50's leaving date (except Spain who will witter on about Gibraltar before being forced back into line again)
- Remain MPs will seize this as a "lifeline" and say that the people must decide
- They will then try and legislate for a second referendum and an Art 50 extension.
- Big problem for them is what is the question: Remain and then what instead? The deal? No deal? Cake? The Remainers will want the unpopular deal or "no deal" on the ballot. What they don't want is any renegotiation as an option.
- If they can, they will try and pass the legislation for a referendum then, before Christmas. The HoL, who love the EU more than the Commons, will vote anything pro-EU through.
- Will they make the vote binding, unlike the last one? No, because they would be worried that leave could win.
But the above does not include what the Government and Labour will do while the remainers try their hand above. The remainers want chaos and disagreement, as that will encourage people to remain, but the government can't stand by and let laws be passed they don't control - if that happens they are no longer in government. Labour want a GE as well. I don't think the government will lose a vote of confidence, but if the Unionists do a deal with Labour then they just might.
If Labour are clever, they will do a deal for the Norway option with the Ulster Unionists and try and bring down the government and to form a minority administration themselves. However, the second Labour look like getting in government the SNP will instantly stop voting with Labour, using some rubbish excuse or other (as they exist only to disrupt in Westminster) which will complicate matters.
The winner are those who can get things organised first and get something passed
- The remain MPs?
- The Labour Party?
- The hardcore Brexitiers? (though their job is to prevent anything being passed, so we crash out)
- The rump Conservative Party?
My money is on the Remain MPs. And probably a referendum and possibly an election next year.
- MPs will announce that no deal will happen.
- Therefore, they will say, this is an extraordinary time and they must take different decisions to normal
- The EU will offer to delay article 50's leaving date (except Spain who will witter on about Gibraltar before being forced back into line again)
- Remain MPs will seize this as a "lifeline" and say that the people must decide
- They will then try and legislate for a second referendum and an Art 50 extension.
- Big problem for them is what is the question: Remain and then what instead? The deal? No deal? Cake? The Remainers will want the unpopular deal or "no deal" on the ballot. What they don't want is any renegotiation as an option.
- If they can, they will try and pass the legislation for a referendum then, before Christmas. The HoL, who love the EU more than the Commons, will vote anything pro-EU through.
- Will they make the vote binding, unlike the last one? No, because they would be worried that leave could win.
But the above does not include what the Government and Labour will do while the remainers try their hand above. The remainers want chaos and disagreement, as that will encourage people to remain, but the government can't stand by and let laws be passed they don't control - if that happens they are no longer in government. Labour want a GE as well. I don't think the government will lose a vote of confidence, but if the Unionists do a deal with Labour then they just might.
If Labour are clever, they will do a deal for the Norway option with the Ulster Unionists and try and bring down the government and to form a minority administration themselves. However, the second Labour look like getting in government the SNP will instantly stop voting with Labour, using some rubbish excuse or other (as they exist only to disrupt in Westminster) which will complicate matters.
The winner are those who can get things organised first and get something passed
- The remain MPs?
- The Labour Party?
- The hardcore Brexitiers? (though their job is to prevent anything being passed, so we crash out)
- The rump Conservative Party?
My money is on the Remain MPs. And probably a referendum and possibly an election next year.
