Machiavelli
Well-known member
Wow. I'm stunned by that Aguero stat and, to a lesser extent, Kane.
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[Albion] Interesting Expected Points (based on XG) graph
- Thread starter Ⓩ-Ⓐ-Ⓜ-Ⓞ-Ⓡ-Ⓐ
- Start date
Wow. I'm stunned by that Aguero stat and, to a lesser extent, Kane.
Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo
Waxing chumps like candles since ‘75
- Oct 4, 2003
- 11,056
Aguero has taken 51 shots so far this season for his 7 goals, Murray has had just 14 shots for his 6 goals.
SussexSeahawk
New member
- Jun 2, 2016
- 152
They've been shown to not be complete crap. The whole point of xG is that it is a better indicator of future form than actual points.
The amount of chances you generally concede or create are much more important long term traits than whether you happen to win. You don't have to pay attention to the more refined stats like xG if you like, but it is a genuinely useful tool.
- Aug 7, 2003
- 7,795
Just what’s to be expected from the newspaper with the lowest circulation in the country. #scrapingthebarrel
Ⓩ-Ⓐ-Ⓜ-Ⓞ-Ⓡ-Ⓐ
Hove / Παρος
- Thread starter
- #26
No! It's bases on statistical analysis. Here is a video explanation of xG which is what was used for the Expected Points calculations that provided the data set for the graph in the OP.
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Uter
Well-known member
And there's more to his game than that. He's chipping in defensively too.
Ⓩ-Ⓐ-Ⓜ-Ⓞ-Ⓡ-Ⓐ;8657994 said:
Ⓩ-Ⓐ-Ⓜ-Ⓞ-Ⓡ-Ⓐ;8658073 said:
Sorry, but it is HOPELESSLY flawed, to the edge of pointlessness.
It makes ZERO allowance for the state of the respective games. In that run of three 1-0 wins for example, for a very large period of each game, one side (us as it happens) was ahead in the game, and attempting to see it out -making little effort to create further chances, but instead seeking to bed in and stifle the opposition.
It goes without saying that in those lengthy periods of those matches that opposition are going to rack up some chances, and boost their 'XG'. Effectively you're suggesting that our going ahead in three consecutive matches is an indicator of future poor form.
It's statistical bullshit.
Johnny RoastBeef
These aren't the players you're looking for.
- Jan 11, 2016
- 3,157
xG is a key tool used by bookmakers in their statistical analysis and Tony Bloom at Star Lizard.
Statistical models can be built using xG that can be weighted to allow for any possible in game variable, including current score or even which player the chance fell to and that players individual xG.
The graph seems to be using xG in its most basic form, but you cant deny that we don't create many chances, regardless of if we are winning or not.
You miss the point entirely, I think.
xG alone is vaguely interesting - it tells you not just how many chances were created, but factors in the quality of those chances. Agree with that much.
What this graph misses is the state of games. Its plainly obvious that a (low ranked) side holding a lead is going to be pushing to create further chances, less than a side trailing by a goal. They've done so by design - they've chosen to bed in and stay compact. It really doesn't tell you much about future form at all.
CaptainDaveUK
Well-known member
- Oct 18, 2010
- 1,506
I realised that and is why I stated that it didn't seem right. xG currently needs to be taken with a huge pinch of salt as predicting that Brighton and Burnley would currently be bottom of the league clearly shows that it is still very much a work in progress.Ⓩ-Ⓐ-Ⓜ-Ⓞ-Ⓡ-Ⓐ;8658073 said:
Surely you have to factor in the quality of the striker, somehow. As has been pointed out, Murray has a fantastic conversion rate. Hence, whilst we may have a low xG score, if those chances happen to fall at the feet of someone with a very high conversion rate, then we will get more goals (and points) than one might "expect". Surely that is the lesson from this season so far? And logically, there is no reason why it shouldn't continue to be the case.
Apologies if I've misunderstood - or simply repeated what others have effectively been saying.
Apologies if I've misunderstood - or simply repeated what others have effectively been saying.
Finchley Seagull
New member
Ⓩ-Ⓐ-Ⓜ-Ⓞ-Ⓡ-Ⓐ;8657994 said:
I get why this can be interesting but surely for this to even itself out over the course of the season, as you suggest, every team would have to have the same quality of goalkeeper and a striker with the same conversion rate. As others have said, we have a high quality keeper and striker so it doesn't say anything except we don't create a lot of chances, which we all knew already
- Jan 3, 2012
- 16,582
……... Which is why there was a poll published the other day which showed that the Guardian was by far the most trusted newspaper in the country across all age groups by a long way.
……... Which is why there was a poll published the other day which showed that the Guardian was by far the most trusted newspaper in the country across all age groups by a long way.
Poll of Guardian readers, commissioned by the Guardian and published in the Guardian [emoji106]
- Jan 3, 2012
- 16,582
That would be the only way to get a sensible answer.....
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- Aug 7, 2003
- 7,795
