Machiavelli
Well-known member
Ever considered its online reach? Perhaps you could dredge up some stats on that; perhaps, like me, you're too obsessed with tomorrow's fish and chip paper rather than what's occurring in the world.
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[Albion] Interesting Expected Points (based on XG) graph
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Ever considered its online reach? Perhaps you could dredge up some stats on that; perhaps, like me, you're too obsessed with tomorrow's fish and chip paper rather than what's occurring in the world.
Machiavelli
Well-known member
Thank you. I'm under the assumption that those figures relate to UK reader/viewership, whereas the success of the online Guardian is built on its international audience unlike, for instance, The Sun
- Aug 7, 2003
- 7,797
The Guardian is seriously overrated, the tabloids are just crap comics. Personal opinions of course.
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SussexSeahawk
New member
- Jun 2, 2016
- 152
Ok maybe I went a bit far in saying it was the 'whole point': obviously there are much more complex and accurate models being used by sports traders. I'm very much not saying that if you bet using xG you would make money: there are a lot of weaknesses in the model as I pointed out in my first post about our blocked shots, but xG models are very impressive at predicting future form given the relative simplicity of the model (specifically in comparison to other basic stats like shots, possession or points).
I think it's mainly about perspective and what you are expecting a stat to be. xG is an interesting stat in quantifying the shots within a game and determining who had the better chances. I was mainly responding to earlier posters saying that the whole concept of it was a load of trash, which I think is wrong as it has more meaning than possession stats for example.
Tesco in Disguise
Where do we go from here?
You've not explained how points are calculated. Taking xG alone and awarding three points to the higher scoring team would not take draws into account, yet these are hardly ever possible using xG, as the final scores are to two decimal points.
McTavish
Well-known member
- Nov 5, 2014
- 1,562
Sure, but if one team has 0.89 xG and the other has 1.12 then I would think that is a 1-1 draw.
3rd most read online newspaper in the UK. Its International readership is larger than its UK readership.