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[Football] Are we safe already



LamieRobertson

Not awoke
Feb 3, 2008
46,485
SHOREHAM BY SEA
You’re spot on, I know.

But relatively speaking, things look really bad for a large group of clubs at the bottom.

Plus we have momentum, have rode out the Stephens/Gross/Propper absences, and Andone/March/Bissouma/Montoya/Bernardo have almost simultaneously emerged as the business.

It feels very relaxed.

Oh yes....I'm just looking to enjoy the journey rather than think about the destination just yet :)
 


Blue Valkyrie

Not seen such Bravery!
Sep 1, 2012
32,165
Valhalla
No, not quite.

My formula is number of points team in 18th have + number of games that team has to play + 1.

So, (Southampton) 9 + 23 + 1 = 33 points for survival.

We need 4 more wins, and then we can declare 'safe'.
 




GoingUp

Well-known member
Aug 14, 2011
3,577
Sussex By The Sea
No I don't think we can get complacent.

Also we need to finish as high as possible to show some progression, which will help entice new players to sign for us in the summer.
 


nicko31

Well-known member
Jan 7, 2010
17,522
Gods country fortnightly
Does anyone remember Hull getting on I think 26 or 27 pts at Christmas and still got relegated? We are not safe and momentum can change in football.

Great start to season, few would have predicted better at this stage
 






Steve_PPP

Active member
Oct 24, 2017
108
Burgess Hill
My formula is number of points team in 18th have + number of games that team has to play + 1.

So, (Southampton) 9 + 23 + 1 = 33 points for survival.

We need 4 more wins, and then we can declare 'safe'.

Interesting formula.... but the bottom three are all marching along at the poor rate of 0.6 PPG so far (with Udders, Cardiff and Palace not going much better). Multiply 0.6 by 38 games and you get 22.8 points, ten points less than your theory....
In reality, the bottom 3 surely have to pick up the pace at some point, so it'll be somewhere in between. I'd be very surprised if 30pts wasn't safe this year.
 


Audax

Boing boing boing...
Aug 3, 2015
2,921
Uckfield
Definitely not safe, by any stretch of the imagination.

But, the table does look rather pretty today. It's started to settle in a 4-tier pattern:

Tier 1 (Leaders) = Man City, Liverpool

<6 point gap>

Tier 2 (Champions League Battle) = Spurs, Chelsea, Arsenal

<8 point gap>

Tier 3 (Mid-table) = Everton, Bournemouth, Man U, Leicester, Us, Watford, Wolves, West Ham

<5 point gap>

Tier 4 (Relegation Battle) = Newcastle, Palace, Cardiff, Huddersfield, Southampton, Burnley, Fulham



But it's so early that things could definitely change. For example, I wouldn't be surprised (but would be disappointed) to see Newcastle and Palace elevate themselves into the mid-table. But there is definitely a pattern that's been established now, and it's a little different from last season where the table beneath the top 6-8 took longer to separate out into a genuine mid-table group vs relegation battle group.
 












dwayne

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
14,859
London
Wise words, it would take a foolish man to predict anything less than half way through the season. Things can all change so quickly.
Squad is so good now that it would surely take something monumental to see us go down

Touch wood

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
 


GT49er

Well-known member
Feb 1, 2009
46,467
Gloucester
Does anyone remember Hull getting on I think 26 or 27 pts at Christmas and still got relegated? We are not safe and momentum can change in football.

Yes, but our manager isn't likely to make the players sit in the penalty area at half time while he gives them a fist-pumping public lecture, is he?



Oh, and BTW, why are we considering if we are safe now? Has the 'Teams who can't catch us' thread surfaced somewhere that I have missed? - because until it does............................
 






B-right-on

Living the dream
Apr 23, 2015
6,162
Shoreham Beaaaach
Definitely not safe, by any stretch of the imagination.

But, the table does look rather pretty today. It's started to settle in a 4-tier pattern:

Tier 1 (Leaders) = Man City, Liverpool

<6 point gap>

Tier 2 (Champions League Battle) = Spurs, Chelsea, Arsenal

<8 point gap>

Tier 3 (Mid-table) = Everton, Bournemouth, Man U, Leicester, Us, Watford, Wolves, West Ham

<5 point gap>

Tier 4 (Relegation Battle) = Newcastle, Palace, Cardiff, Huddersfield, Southampton, Burnley, Fulham



But it's so early that things could definitely change. For example, I wouldn't be surprised (but would be disappointed) to see Newcastle and Palace elevate themselves into the mid-table. But there is definitely a pattern that's been established now, and it's a little different from last season where the table beneath the top 6-8 took longer to separate out into a genuine mid-table group vs relegation battle group.

I think Burnley have enough nouse to get out of the poo and be relatively safe before the business end of the season starts
 






blue-shifted

Banned
Feb 20, 2004
7,645
a galaxy far far away
38 points historically has been the real magic number, not 40 if you look at the stats. Long way to go yet.

And I seriously doubt anyone will need 38 to survive. 34 should do it this year I reckon
 









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