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[Football] Poor Refereeing cost us £11.5 million last season







GT49er

Well-known member
Feb 1, 2009
46,745
Gloucester
...and we should have finished 9th according to the Luck Index


Liverpool unluckiest Premier League team & Manchester United luckiest, says studyhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/45087444

Just trying to think what the incidents were? [emoji848]
Link?
 






Thunder Bolt

Silly old bat
Fair enough, but really any decision good or bad evens out over the season. I’m sure that we got some lucky breaks that gave us an advantage. A couple of examples, Dunk’s last ditch tackle on Charlie Adam after the Stoke penalty was a foul and Duffy wiping out Lingard in the penalty area when we beat Man Utd 1-0. Yes, when decisions go against us it’s infuriating but you won’t hear me complaining if it were the other way round.

The study says every game was analysed, therefore those situations were also taken into consideration.
 






GT49er

Well-known member
Feb 1, 2009
46,745
Gloucester
Fair enough, but really any decision good or bad evens out over the season. I’m sure that we got some lucky breaks that gave us an advantage. A couple of examples, Dunk’s last ditch tackle on Charlie Adam after the Stoke penalty was a foul and Duffy wiping out Lingard in the penalty area when we beat Man Utd 1-0. Yes, when decisions go against us it’s infuriating but you won’t hear me complaining if it were the other way round.

Every game and incident was examined and reviewed as to whether it made a difference to the outcome, so no, it clearly does not even itself out over a season.
 


mikeyjh

Well-known member
Dec 17, 2008
4,489
Llanymawddwy
Every game and incident was examined and reviewed as to whether it made a difference to the outcome, so no, it clearly does not even itself out over a season.

You say that but if you read down - "The research team analysed over 150 incidents" - So are we saying that in the significant majority of games, there were no contentious or 'lucky' moments that may influence the course of the game? No way. I wonder what vested interest ESPN and Intel have to persuade them to fund this study....

The methodology makes interesting reading:-

• The research team at the University of Bath enlisted three trained coders who watched footage from every single game across the 2017/18 Premier League season

• Using the kappa coefficient to test interrater reliability, at least two of the three coders had to highlight an incident as ‘possibly incorrect’ for it to be included in the analysis

• A random sample of these incidents was ratified by former Premier League referee Peter Walton who had a deciding say over whether the outcome of those particular incidents was down to a team being lucky or unlucky.

• From thousands of match incidents across all 380 matches, 157 incidents were finally put forward for analysis.
 




GT49er

Well-known member
Feb 1, 2009
46,745
Gloucester
You say that but if you read down - "The research team analysed over 150 incidents" - So are we saying that in the significant majority of games, there were no contentious or 'lucky' moments that may influence the course of the game? No way. I wonder what vested interest ESPN and Intel have to persuade them to fund this study....

The methodology makes interesting reading:-

• The research team at the University of Bath enlisted three trained coders who watched footage from every single game across the 2017/18 Premier League season

• Using the kappa coefficient to test interrater reliability, at least two of the three coders had to highlight an incident as ‘possibly incorrect’ for it to be included in the analysis

• A random sample of these incidents was ratified by former Premier League referee Peter Walton who had a deciding say over whether the outcome of those particular incidents was down to a team being lucky or unlucky.

• From thousands of match incidents across all 380 matches, 157 incidents were finally put forward for analysis.
OK, not every, my error. But still a significant amount, and a very well planned and carried out analysis. Like refereeing decisions, nothing will ever be 100% correct, but there is sufficient evidence here that bad/good luck does not even itself out over the course of the season.
 




LlcoolJ

Mama said knock you out.
Oct 14, 2009
12,982
Sheffield
I for one am AMAZED that Manchester United get more lucky decisions than any other team. Who would have THOUGHT?!
 




Gazwag

5 millionth post poster
Mar 4, 2004
30,145
Bexhill-on-Sea
The points part is rubbish though, had we been given those two penalties against Chelsea we might have missed them both and even if we had scored with would have been 2-2 with most of the second half to go.

The important thing is referee should treat the top six the same as the bottom 14
 


Iggle Piggle

Well-known member
Sep 3, 2010
5,332
The points part is rubbish though, had we been given those two penalties against Chelsea we might have missed them both and even if we had scored with would have been 2-2 with most of the second half to go.

The important thing is referee should treat the top six the same as the bottom 14

Not only that Goals change games. Teams may push up more, make more attacking substitutions or change formations to either open up or shut a game down. Unless it was a goal that should have been disallowed in the 93rd minute it will never be as black and white as presented.

One of the examples cited in the article was Liverpool V Man U. Jose went and got a 0-0 draw which they should have lost 1-0 according to the pooter. That is bollox - He sends on the flair if they go 1-0 down. They might equalise or concede another but a 1-0 win is oversimplification.
 


el punal

Well-known member
Every game and incident was examined and reviewed as to whether it made a difference to the outcome, so no, it clearly does not even itself out over a season.

Okay. You are being specific and I’m generalising. This season we could get more decisions in our favour than against. Regardless of the research carried out it’s not going to make any difference. It’s football, officials make mistakes, some crucial, but that unfortunately is the nature of the beast. On the plus side, when working correctly, we have VAR which is a step in the right direction I suppose.
 




Iggle Piggle

Well-known member
Sep 3, 2010
5,332
I'd also venture that we are ''unlucky'' because we don't have a manager pressurising the ref into decisions in our favour whether that be a moan at half time or a sky interview complaining about how we never get anything. Likewise, Man Utd are ''lucky'' because a ref - consciously or subconsciously - gives a pen when Lukaku goes down like Sgt Barnes in Platoon to avoid 20 minutes of Press conference about how it was the refs fault when the decision is marginal.

I'm not saying I'd prefer a moaning bell cheese in charge, just that's the way it is.
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
50,121
Faversham
Clearly doesn't even out over a season!

No but it does even out over seasons. Maybe we'll get lucky with refs this time. But don't wish it; we may get unlucky with injuries....goodness knows how many points we earned/saved by having a teflon squad last season....
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
50,121
Faversham
Okay. You are being specific and I’m generalising. This season we could get more decisions in our favour than against. Regardless of the research carried out it’s not going to make any difference. It’s football, officials make mistakes, some crucial, but that unfortunately is the nature of the beast. On the plus side, when working correctly, we have VAR which is a step in the right direction I suppose.

Yes. It is like the difference between climate and weather. We had a bit of bad weather last season wrt luck.

btw, ManU get extra luck because they are nearer the equator. No pens conceded in the league at home for 10 years under Fergie? Why? All that hot sun shining out of his arse.
 






GT49er

Well-known member
Feb 1, 2009
46,745
Gloucester
Okay. You are being specific and I’m generalising. This season we could get more decisions in our favour than against.
True. That doesn't invalidate the findings for last season though.

Regardless of the research carried out it’s not going to make any difference. It’s football, officials make mistakes, some crucial, but that unfortunately is the nature of the beast.
Well, of course not - results are never going to be over-turned. Don't think anybody has suggested they should be - certainly not me.

On the plus side, when working correctly, we have VAR which is a step in the right direction I suppose.
No we haven't!
 




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