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[Albion] If Stoke lose to Man City





Audax

Boing boing boing...
Aug 3, 2015
2,921
Uckfield
As things stand today (and even once the Stoke v ManC game is played) there's 9 teams behind us. For us to fall into relegation, 7 or those teams need to outscore us (and some of them by significant margins). For the sake of argument, let's assume that Stoke lose against Man City.

The worst-case scenario from here is that:

1. We lose all our games and finish on 34 points.
2. The current two worst placed teams (West Brom and Stoke) also lose all their remaining games (feeding maximum points to others in the relegation battle).

Using that as a baseline, I then ran "worst case" results for other matches (to maximise the chances of us falling into relegation), with the exception that I assumed that top 6 sides always win vs non-top 6 sides. What this came out with is that we drop into the relegation zone with 3 games still to play.

But the odds of that being the way it plays out must be astronomical. It required a lot of teams behind us to be winning games more frequently than they have at any other point in the season, and it requires teams ahead of us to have meltdowns (Everton, Watford, Burnley, Leicester).

So I then went and tweaked a few results here and there, giving us a win vs Hudds and a draw vs Palace for 38 points. Tweaked some of the results for the aforementioned teams ahead of us (in games vs those behind) and it didn't take very many changes at all to have us safe.

I think 37 should be enough based on this, especially as I think it's unrealistic to expect Stoke to not take points away from others in the relegation battle; they've still got West Ham, Palace, and Swansea to come. Hopefully even the dire West Brom could manage to do us a favour or two - they've still got Bournemouth, Newcastle, and Palace to come. If they could nick a draw against the latter two that helps us a lot. Southampton's run in from here is nearly as ugly as ours is as well, so struggling to see where they make up the points on us unless we do go pointless.
 


















LlcoolJ

Mama said knock you out.
Oct 14, 2009
12,982
Sheffield








Wilko

LUZZING chairs about
Sep 19, 2003
9,921
BN1
Agree but won't happen to 4 or 5 teams. One might have a sensational run, but not all of them.

This is what I keep reminding myself when I have a little wobble. One or two teams may have a really good run as you get that every season, they cannot all go on a super run though so as long as we keep several teams between us and the bottom as each round of games gets eaten up we will be ok. This weekend for example the gap was 7, we lost but it is still 7.
 








FatSuperman

Well-known member
Feb 25, 2016
2,829
Too complex for me, what was wrong with just the names or their home shirts even that would have been better. Who is the halo?

It's a time-honoured post though BG, surely you've seen it previously? (Usually it's focus is on the other end of the table!)
 




Bwian

Kiss my (_!_)
Jul 14, 2003
15,898
As things stand today (and even once the Stoke v ManC game is played) there's 9 teams behind us. For us to fall into relegation, 7 or those teams need to outscore us (and some of them by significant margins). For the sake of argument, let's assume that Stoke lose against Man City.

The worst-case scenario from here is that:

1. We lose all our games and finish on 34 points.
2. The current two worst placed teams (West Brom and Stoke) also lose all their remaining games (feeding maximum points to others in the relegation battle).

Using that as a baseline, I then ran "worst case" results for other matches (to maximise the chances of us falling into relegation), with the exception that I assumed that top 6 sides always win vs non-top 6 sides. What this came out with is that we drop into the relegation zone with 3 games still to play.

But the odds of that being the way it plays out must be astronomical. It required a lot of teams behind us to be winning games more frequently than they have at any other point in the season, and it requires teams ahead of us to have meltdowns (Everton, Watford, Burnley, Leicester).

So I then went and tweaked a few results here and there, giving us a win vs Hudds and a draw vs Palace for 38 points. Tweaked some of the results for the aforementioned teams ahead of us (in games vs those behind) and it didn't take very many changes at all to have us safe.

I think 37 should be enough based on this, especially as I think it's unrealistic to expect Stoke to not take points away from others in the relegation battle; they've still got West Ham, Palace, and Swansea to come. Hopefully even the dire West Brom could manage to do us a favour or two - they've still got Bournemouth, Newcastle, and Palace to come. If they could nick a draw against the latter two that helps us a lot. Southampton's run in from here is nearly as ugly as ours is as well, so struggling to see where they make up the points on us unless we do go pointless.
I think I preferred "How many points do we need to win the title". Way less complicated. Doesn't mean I want to be back in The Championship though.

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk
 


Tim Over Whelmed

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 24, 2007
10,165
Arundel
Our GD could look pretty grim after playing both Manchester clubs,Liverpool and Spurs(if we lose)

We will win one of those games, there you go, you heard it here first!
 




jimhigham

Je Suis Rhino
Apr 25, 2009
7,699
Woking
While there is the possibility that other struggling clubs will really up their game as it comes to the crunch, we seem to have forgotten the possibility that we could do so too. Chris has been playing a long, steady game but he’s almost certainly got a “balls to the wall” Plan B if required.
 


Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 11, 2003
59,205
The Fatherland
Stoke’s a shit hole. Hope they lose.
 



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