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[Albion] 22% Chance of Relegation - Magic Pts Total is





LowKarate

New member
Jan 6, 2004
2,002
Wombling free
I think that is the number now. Especially after Newcastle and Huddersfield both picked up 3 points in Sunday.

Even if 2 teams fall adrift, you've still got to get more points than the 18th placed team and from where we are today with 11 games to go, it is very realistic for most of the teams around us to pick up 3 wins and 2 draws out of 11 games and that would see the mark at around 38 for survival.

We've had a lot of big games lately, but the Swansea one us mahoosive. There are lots of other factors, but given how few genuinely winnable games there are left, I think that if we win that then we will make it OK by the end of the season. If we lose or draw, then we are going to have to put in some performances against the top 9 which we have yet to achieve this far.
 


severnside gull

Well-known member
May 16, 2007
24,540
By the seaside in West Somerset
I think that is the number now. Especially after Newcastle and Huddersfield both picked up 3 points in Sunday.

Even if 2 teams fall adrift, you've still got to get more points than the 18th placed team and from where we are today with 11 games to go, it is very realistic for most of the teams around us to pick up 3 wins and 2 draws out of 11 games and that would see the mark at around 38 for survival.

We've had a lot of big games lately, but the Swansea one us mahoosive. There are lots of other factors, but given how few genuinely winnable games there are left, I think that if we win that then we will make it OK by the end of the season. If we lose or draw, then we are going to have to put in some performances against the top 9 which we have yet to achieve this far.

That's a pretty fair assessment. Swansea is such a big game!
 


Blue Valkyrie

Not seen such Bravery!
Sep 1, 2012
32,165
Valhalla
22% sounds reasonable, but our problem is that it could rocket up quickly if things go badly.

38 points has to be the target for now.

Swansea is a vital game, but we can also take comfort that Arsenal are not 'Big 6' away from home, and have won a non-stellar 13 points on the road so far.
 










SAC

Well-known member
May 21, 2014
2,534
Not sure I believe that Huddersfield are twice as likely to be relegated as Southampton but don't disagree with the other predictions as things currently stand.
 








Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
49,989
Goldstone
Not sure I believe that Huddersfield are twice as likely to be relegated as Southampton
Less than 1 point between them at the moment (SCC much better GD). SCC have 3 top 6 left, Hudds have 4. I guess people still expect SCC to turn it around, whereas Huddersfield have done well to get where they are.
 






LlcoolJ

Mama said knock you out.
Oct 14, 2009
12,982
Sheffield
Interesting article and I like the last line. Pardew would be better off with a bottle of meths.
 


nicko31

Well-known member
Jan 7, 2010
17,522
Gods country fortnightly
Interesting article and I like the last line. Pardew would be better off with a bottle of meths.

Pardew something like 32 out of the last 144 in the PL. West Brom will be the last big pay day for him
 




Easy 10

Brain dead MUG SHEEP
Jul 5, 2003
61,673
Location Location
So if either us or Man City get through to the FA Cup QF (at least one of us will), and if Man City make the Champions League QF (they already have), then our run-in will probably change to:

14/4 - Palace (a)
17/4 - Man City (a)
21/4 - Spurs (h)
28/4 - Burnley (a)
05/5 - Man U (h)
13/5 - Liverpool (a)

Hmmm. Challenging.
 




crookie

Well-known member
Jun 14, 2013
3,305
Back in Sussex
3/1 at Betfair, 33%, I'd say this is a more realistic chance than 22% personally. Still can't understand why Muff are 33/1, hardly right out of it, and an awful result on Saturday
 


nicko31

Well-known member
Jan 7, 2010
17,522
Gods country fortnightly
So if either us or Man City get through to the FA Cup QF (at least one of us will), and if Man City make the Champions League QF (they already have), then our run-in will probably change to:

14/4 - Palace (a)
17/4 - Man City (a)
21/4 - Spurs (h)
28/4 - Burnley (a)
05/5 - Man U (h)
13/5 - Liverpool (a)

Hmmm. Challenging.

Hopefully Man C are crowned champs on 14/4 and will be hung over. Smellhurst game will be seriously tasty
 




Perkino

Well-known member
Dec 11, 2009
5,978
I expected our chances to be higher than 22% so am happy with that. 3 more wins could be enough
 


Wardy's twin

Well-known member
Oct 21, 2014
8,402
I thought it would be 37 around Christmas and that there would be some slack, think it will be 38/39 and tight now.

Its in our hands though , we just need to keep pace with those below us and they are down and we stay up. Simple to say I know but at least we have some advantage at this point and we have a brand new player who we can add to the fight, other teams have played that card already.
 



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