Got something to say or just want fewer pesky ads? Join us... 😊

[Albion] 22% Chance of Relegation - Magic Pts Total is







Blackadder

Brighton Bhuna Boy
Jul 6, 2003
16,077
Haywards Heath
I agree.....just a bit worried that we don't seem to have another away win left in us and most of our remaining points will have to come at home. I can see us beating Swansea and Huddersfield and getting at least a draw from Leicester. That will get us to 35. We need to scramble another 3-4 from somewhere.

I will take that right now. As for scrambling a few more points. Don't be surprised if we get something at Burnley and Everton. I think the Burnley players are already on the Beach as their season is effectively over, and Everton are, well Everton. Palace could go either way but a draw is not inconceivable.

Surely we must get at least one point from one of the "TOP 6" games? (this probably depends more on our mindset rather the opposition - other teams at the bottom have managed to get points).
 


crookie

Well-known member
Jun 14, 2013
3,305
Back in Sussex
Easy mistake to make - but bookie giving odds of 3/1 means they break even if the event happens 25% of the time.

Suggests they think the actual frequency will be at most 20% of the time.

Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk

But the implied probability is 33%, ignoring the bookies overround shenanigans.

No, erkan is correct. 3/1 represents 1 chance in 4 = 25%
2/1 would imply a probability of 33% (again, ignoring the overround)

Doh! You're right. Mixing up my decimals and my fractionals.

It is the Betfair Exchange, so minimal if any overround. Their sportsbook is 23/10, so my point stands
 


Moshe Gariani

Well-known member
Mar 10, 2005
12,068
It is the Betfair Exchange, so minimal if any overround. Their sportsbook is 23/10, so my point stands
Which point? Are the odds we're discussing 3/1 or 23/10...?
 




Moshe Gariani

Well-known member
Mar 10, 2005
12,068
We're basically 11/4 with the bookies.

They break even if we go down 27% of the time.

Ergo, they presumably think we will go down a bit less often than that. Perhaps 22% of the time....
 


Moshe Gariani

Well-known member
Mar 10, 2005
12,068
If we beat Swansea and Palace lose to Tottenham this weekend then Palace will be back in the position of being considered more likely than us to be relegated.
 







Paying the bills

Latest Discussions

Paying the bills

Paying the bills

Paying the bills

Albion and Premier League latest from Sky Sports


Top
Link Here