[Albion] Survival Points Total

Bozza · Feb 12, 2018

Bold Seagull said:
Bloodyhell, that is pretty hard marking, Stoke are going to get 6 points from 11 games, Southampton 2, and West Brom 4!

Southampton are just 1 point below 1ppg to this point, but are going to be P11 W0 D2 L9...harsh. But hopefully true.

Whilst I agree with you, a fair few sides have had runs of 8-10 games without a win this season, including us. Burnley are on such a run right now.

The chances are at least one side is going to have a long barren spell at a crucial time.

Triggaaar · Feb 12, 2018

Blue Valkyrie said:
Well at least we know that only 2 of West Brom, Palace, Swansea and Stoke can win on the last day.

We also know some of them will get points, and we probably won't. #glassempty

So get at least 2 points clear of that lot, and 4 ahead of someone else before the last day - and happy days.

That would lovely. 2 points ahead of 5 teams however, is a fair bit to ask.

brianwade · Feb 12, 2018

Sussex Nomad said:
Personally I think 33 will keep a side up, all be it on goal difference.

scary maths mate - worrying - get yourself a new one of these ;

https://www.alexanderandpearl.co.uk...MIzaXn_byg2QIVrp3tCh3UhgBREAQYAyABEgKqWPD_BwE

Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo · Feb 12, 2018

Triggaaar said:
Is that a joke? If not, how did you work that out?

I don't know if what SF posted is true but since the PL went to 20 clubs (95/96 season) getting 37 points would have kept you up in 15 of the 22 seasons. The only exceptions being

95/96 39 pts
96/97 41 pts
97/98 40 pts
02/03 43 pts
06/07 38 pts
10/11 40 pts
15/16 38 pts

The average number of points required to stay up over those 22 seasons (ie 1 more point than the team finishing 18th) is 36.77

TSB · Feb 12, 2018

38.

3 wins from:
Swansea
Arsenal
Huddersfield
Leicester
Man Utd
or
Palace

And a draw.

Should do it.

perseus · Feb 12, 2018

I remember the good times said:
I urge you to give the predictor a go, takes about 15 mins. Be honest about it and give the lowly teams the benefit of a win here or there. I was surprised that 36 points had us 13th

I've done it a few times to 37 games. Latest before we drew 1-1 with Stoke but I had that down for a 1-1 draw anyway and I had Huddersfield to win 3-1.

SUNDAY 13TH MAY
Burnley 15:00 AFC Bournemouth
Crystal Palace 15:00 West Bromwich Albion
Huddersfield Town 15:00 Arsenal
Liverpool 15:00 Brighton & Hove Albion
Manchester United 15:00 Watford
Newcastle United 15:00 Chelsea
Southampton 15:00 Manchester City
Swansea City 15:00 Stoke City
Tottenham Hotspur 15:00 Leicester City
West Ham United 15:00 Everton

Target 38 pts. Prediction 36 pts with one game to play.

Robinjakarta · Feb 12, 2018

Napier's Knee said:
On the predictor I had us finishing 15th on 37 points. Going down: Stoke (31) Southampton (28) West Brom (24)

Same here except 38 points scored with 33 enough to survive, so comfortably safe before likely defeat at Anfield.

The_Viper · Feb 12, 2018

On the predictor I had us 16th on 37 with Stoke, Swansea and WBA going down.

I still want us taking 38, I think we're safe on 38.

djentist · Feb 12, 2018

Judging patterns of form so far this season, I think All About Me Albion will go down rock bottom with a whimper on 31/32 points and will not emerge from the drop zone for the rest of the season, 19th will be within 33-35 points and will go down second to last gameweek after being in and out of the drop zone several times but always looking like a candidate, and 18th will go on the last day with 36/37 points, kicking and screaming, after possibly being in the driving seat and looking like they might be safe but nosediving at the wrong point in the season. So I think 38 points or 37 with a strong goal difference will be the figure we need (the latter is unlikely as we don't score enough goals). Whether 38 can be achieved remains to be seen, 10 points needed. Three wins and a draw or two wins and four draws, the latter of which I see as being the scenario we are more likely to have.

RandyWanger · Feb 12, 2018

Swansea - 3
ARSE - 0
Everton - 1
Citeh - 0
Leicester - 1
Udders - 3
Scum - 3
Spuds - 0
Burnley - 1
ManUre - 0
Liverpool - 0

Triggaaar · Feb 12, 2018

Steve Foster said:
Since the Premier league has had 20 teams, if you finish the season on 36 points, you have more than a 50% chance of staying up. If you finish on 35 points you have less than 50% chance on staying up

Triggaaar said:
Is that a joke? If not, how did you work that out?

Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo said:
I don't know if what SF posted is true but...

Oops. I completely misunderstood what Steve was saying :lol:

Triggaaar · Feb 12, 2018

TSB said:
38.

3 wins from:
Swansea
Arsenal
Huddersfield
Leicester
Man Utd
or
Palace

And a draw.

Should do it.

Can't see us winning 3 of those.

Triggaaar · Feb 12, 2018

perseus said:
I've done it a few times to 37 games. Latest before we drew 1-1 with Stoke but I had that down for a 1-1 draw anyway and I had Huddersfield to win 3-1.

View attachment 94107

SUNDAY 13TH MAY
Burnley 15:00 AFC Bournemouth
Crystal Palace 15:00 West Bromwich Albion
Huddersfield Town 15:00 Arsenal
Liverpool 15:00 Brighton & Hove Albion
Manchester United 15:00 Watford
Newcastle United 15:00 Chelsea
Southampton 15:00 Manchester City
Swansea City 15:00 Stoke City
Tottenham Hotspur 15:00 Leicester City
West Ham United 15:00 Everton

Target 38 pts. Prediction 36 pts with one game to play.

We'll probably lose the last game. Either Stoke or Swansea would overtake us. Even if Huddersfield lose, all it takes is for Palace to let West Brom win, and we're down. Let's hope you're wrong.

phoenix · Feb 12, 2018

Bozza said:
Anyone reckon we will be mathematically safe before the last day of the season?

Burnley v AFC Bournemouth
Crystal Palace v West Bromwich Albion
Huddersfield Town v Arsenal
Liverpool v Brighton & Hove Albion
Manchester United v Watford
Newcastle United v Chelsea
Southampton v Manchester City
Swansea City v Stoke City
Tottenham Hotspur v Leicester City
West Ham United v Everton

Swansea vs Stoke could be our saviour, both teams can't win, this is if we beat Swansea at Home Saturday week.

phoenix · Feb 12, 2018

Triggaaar said:
We'll probably lose the last game. Either Stoke or Swansea would overtake us. Even if Huddersfield lose, all it takes is for Palace to let West Brom win, and we're down. Let's hope you're wrong.

I got us on 36 point also, gulp!

nicko31 · Feb 12, 2018

Got us on 38, a draw for the Swansea game

SUA Seagull · Feb 12, 2018

I remember the good times said:
I urge you to give the predictor a go, takes about 15 mins. Be honest about it and give the lowly teams the benefit of a win here or there. I was surprised that 36 points had us 13th

I tried the Predictor and ended up with Albion on 37 points, safe in 15th. Another 9 points picked up c/o W vs Swansea and Huddersfield and D vs Leicester, Palace and Burnley. A few weeks back I had us down for 36 points and 16th with a defeat at Burnley, but I'm now optimistically going for a point there! Also shows that if we can take any points from a top six team they will be uber valuable in our fight to stay up.

15 Brighton & Hove Albion 38 8 13 17 31:55 -24 37
16 Swansea City 38 9 9 20 30:57 -27 36
17 Huddersfield Town 38 9 9 20 33:65 -32 36
18 Southampton FC 38 7 13 18 38:58 -20 34
19 Stoke City 38 8 10 20 38:70 -32 34
20 West Bromwich Albion 38 4 15 19 30:57 -27 27

goldstone · Feb 12, 2018

Don't forget we have our new record signing to boost our chances for the rest of the season.

Machiavelli · Feb 12, 2018

I've just done my calculations, which basically involved giving City, Liverpool and Spurs wins and big goal totals. Beyond that, I'm following what (I understand) current form to be.
At the top, this leaves:
City 103, +90
Liverpool 87, +53
Spurs 83
United 81

At the bottom,
Stoke on 32 and WBA on 28 are both comfortably down, whereas there's three teams on 36 points:
us, Huddersfield and Southampton. We finish in 17th and survive with a -24 goal difference, Southampton's is -17, whereas Huddersfield are relegated on -36

Hereford Gull · Feb 12, 2018

Stoke (36), Southampton (35), and WBA (33) in the bottom 3, we just survive with 36 points on GD (phew!) but no relaxing on the last day, will go to the wire and we will rely on other results after losing 3-0 at Liverpool - OMG!! Where is that Octopus?

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