[Albion] How many points to stay up?

perseus · Jan 24, 2018

Neck and neck with Southampton. We will go into the final match needing to beat Liverpool away by a greater margin than Southampton win their home game!

And waiting on Palace to beat WBA.

PREDICTOR
http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/

Driver8 · Jan 24, 2018

I fear the large elephant in the room, about which we must not speak, could be the final nail in the coffin.

Thunder Bolt · Jan 24, 2018

This season is the tightest Prem relegation battle for 24 years.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football...ghtest-premier-league-relegation-battle-ever/

As a result, in the entire Premier League, only City, Burnley and perhaps newly-promoted Brighton and Huddersfield (who are just one and two points above the drop zone, respectively) have a reasonable claim at having performed above expectations this season.

Blue Valkyrie · Feb 4, 2018

Blue Valkyrie said:
Must Wins : Swansea, West Ham, Huddersfield

Must Not Loses : Southampton, Stoke, Leicester, Burnley

36+ points

Still on, but less now to do.

:albion2:

Tough match at Stoke next. A point there is gold dust to us.

thbjenkins · Feb 4, 2018

12 games left, and only 13 points needed to reach that “magical” 40 points.

If we keep playing like we did yesterday then that’s easily achievable.

And we still have Locadia to (hopefully) make an impact and Ulloa’s only getting warmed up. I’m quite positive about our chances of survival.

Machiavelli · Feb 4, 2018

This is being generous, as we're now beyond two-thirds of the way through the season, but if you multiply the bottom half of the league's totals by 1.5, you get:
Watford 40.5
West Ham 40.5
Brighton 40.5
Soton 39
Palace 39
Newcastle 36
Stoke 36
Huddersfield 36
Swansea 36
West Brom 30

In reality, some will get more than this, others less (we'll get less). Those with good goal differences will probably be OK with 36, and fairly secure with 37. But it does show:
-- not only how every point counts
-- how important our games against those teams around us are
-- how big a win is in the grand scheme of things

Chijeff · Feb 4, 2018

Lurchy said:
It's going to go to the wire, but if we can get to 36pts I believe we'll stay up.

Total agreement. So close this season with all the teams in the bottom half vulnerable. I think 35 or 36 points will see survival and I believe we will be in that region.

blue-shifted · Feb 4, 2018

Because of the large number of teams quite close together I think you say with a high degree of certainty what will be required. 4th from bottom has been on just under a point per game all season and that will highly likely remain the case. 37 is very likely to be enough and I think 36 would give us a better than even chance given our GD.

Call it 37 points then. We're on 27 with 12 games left. So an analysis of p12 w2 d4 l6 for the rest of the season would most likely do it. If we can find 3 wins and a couple of draws, that means we can still lose 7 games and be very likely to survive.

The_Viper · Feb 4, 2018

38 has been my goal all season for me to think we're safe. One point per game. Have a gut feeling it'll end up being less, especially with some of the injuries demolishing sides right now.

Bladders · Feb 4, 2018

I think 35 points and GD will be enough this year

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Weststander · Feb 4, 2018

39. 4 more wins for us.

Triggaaar · Feb 4, 2018

Weststander said:
39. 4 more wins for us.

3 more is enough.

djentist · Feb 4, 2018

I think the survival threshold will be higher this season, at least 37 points, so three wins and another draw, or two wins and four draws. Could need even more than that with how competitive the battle is, there aren't any awful Sunderland/Villa esque teams to have a knock on effect with their dreadfulness

Hampster Gull · Feb 4, 2018

Triggaaar said:
3 more is enough.

Triggs right

Scoffers · Feb 4, 2018

Very difficult to call, on current trending, something like 37 could be enough but results like Swansea beating Arsenal and Liverpool recently and Huddersfield beating Man Utd in October can always crop up and change things. 4 wins out of 12 for most of the sides in the bottom half should see that team safe.

dangull · Feb 4, 2018

Bookies have Brighton still at 5/2 to go down. Thought that was roughly the odds before the West Ham game.

Wardy's twin · Feb 4, 2018

dangull said:
Bookies have Brighton still at 5/2 to go down. Thought that was roughly the odds before the West Ham game.

what are the other odds on offer i.e. are we favourites or 4th favourites?

Wardy's twin · Feb 4, 2018

before Christmas I thought 32/33 points would be sufficient to stay up, think it might be more now 36. We have 3 or 4 winnable games if we play like yesterday we can win those games. Also I am not ready to accept we will just rollover against the big 6 clubs, NO ONE else has done that. Time will tell.

dangull · Feb 4, 2018

Wardy's twin said:
what are the other odds on offer i.e. are we favourites or 4th favourites?

I think its 6th favourite. Huddersfield, West Brom, Swansea, Newcastle and Stoke are considered more likely at the moment.

Bozza · Feb 4, 2018

Wardy's twin said:
what are the other odds on offer i.e. are we favourites or 4th favourites?

6th favourites.

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