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[Albion] 24 points from 16 games



Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
55,575
Back in Sussex
If the games against the "Big 6" clubs are free hits but we don't expect to get anything from them, and 40 points is the safety target then it means we have 16 games left to get 24 points.

Now, it seems unlikely that we'll not pick up the odd point against the Big 6 and a lower points tally may do (35, 38, 36, 34 and 37 were the safety points in recent seasons) but 24 from 16 is quite a stiff test.

The good news is, so far, we're 16 points from 10 games so we're on track. Three points tonight will be a big help, obviously.
 


Springal

Well-known member
Feb 12, 2005
23,710
GOSBTS
I know you've already alluded to this, but I would be amazed if we don't pick up at least a couple of results against the top six. We're more than good enough to compete with any team. The difference is we don't have lots of goals in us like the top teams do, but sooner or later we're going to score first against one of the big boys and if that happens we'll be very hard to beat.

We have yet to score against a Top 6 team, and you think we'll beat one 'sooner or later' ?
 


hans kraay fan club

The voice of reason.
Helpful Moderator
Mar 16, 2005
61,094
Chandlers Ford
We have yet to score against a Top 6 team, and you think we'll beat one 'sooner or later' ?

We've only played ONE home game though, and that our first at this level, against possibly the best team in the WORLD. (and even then Murphy probably ought to have done).

At Arsenal only pure blind luck prevented March's rocket ending up in the net, rather than rebounding back off the inside of the post, and we had our chances on Saturday.

Home games to come against Liverpool, Chelsea, United, Arsenal and Spurs. We'll pick up SOME points there, for sure.
 


Cowfold Seagull

Fan of the 17 bus
Apr 22, 2009
21,578
Cowfold
Who cares where the points come from. Survival at any cost is the be all and end all this season. If we can get a toe hold in this division, then next season perhaps we will be able to push on and establish ourselves.
 


hans kraay fan club

The voice of reason.
Helpful Moderator
Mar 16, 2005
61,094
Chandlers Ford
Who cares where the points come from. Survival at any cost is the be all and end all this season. If we can get a toe hold in this division, then next season perhaps we will be able to push on and establish ourselves.

That is all true, of course. I think it is important not to just 'write off' the games against the big clubs though. If Huddersfield can win against United, we can do similar, for sure.
 


Moshe Gariani

Well-known member
Mar 10, 2005
12,068
"24pts from 16 games" is obviously a stiff test.

It is also a misrepresentation of what we are most likely to need from those 16 games.

37 points are very likely to be enough. And we are likely to get a couple of points from the Big 6. For example, we have a roughly 1 in 3 chance of avoiding defeat against Liverpool at The Amex next Saturday and even away from home at Big 6 (apart from City) we'll be no worse than "1 in 4" or "1 in 5" to get at least a point...

If we have to agree a target from the other 16 games then I'm happy contemplating the fact that we will probably need around 19 more points from those 16 winnable games.
 




Tim Over Whelmed

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 24, 2007
10,165
Arundel
I'm not shifting from my games played plus 10% = Points required. We're on 13 played so need 14.3 points and have 16. Given the run in I'd like us to be at 42 before the last FIVE games though!
 


hans kraay fan club

The voice of reason.
Helpful Moderator
Mar 16, 2005
61,094
Chandlers Ford
"24pts from 16 games" is obviously a stiff test.

It is also a misrepresentation of what we are most likely to need from those 16 games.

37 points are very likely to be enough. And we are likely to get a couple of points from the Big 6. For example, we have a roughly 1 in 3 chance of avoiding defeat against Liverpool at The Amex next Saturday and even away from home at Big 6 (apart from City) we'll be no worse than "1 in 4" or "1 in 5" to get at least a point...

If we have to agree a target from the other 16 games then I'm happy contemplating the fact that we will probably need around 19 more points from those 16 winnable games.

Even less than that, IMO.

I believe that THE target is actually 38 points rather than 40, for starters, so 22 needed altogether.

I'm going to 'give us' 6 points from the remaining nine 'big club' matches, leaving just 16 from 16 to knock off :thumbsup:
 


Wardy's twin

Well-known member
Oct 21, 2014
8,402
We need to get 3 points tonight to maintain the momentum (top of the rest) , anything less will throw us back into the mire and things become less positive i.e. you are fighting to survive rather than being top of the (second) pile.
 


Hotchilidog

Well-known member
Jan 24, 2009
8,645
Having watched Spurs on MotD against West Brom this weekend, I think it is possible to get at a point from that game.

I'd be surprised if we totally pointless against the top six. I fancy us for between 1-3 from the 9 games remaining.
 






Two Professors

Two Mad Professors
Jul 13, 2009
7,617
Multicultural Brum
Still optimistic we will be safe by the end of March,especially when our '20 goals a season' striker joins in January.Praying that our injury problems stay minimal!
 


Sussex Nomad

Well-known member
Aug 26, 2010
18,185
EP
Trouble with tonight though, it is not your normal game. It is their cup final.
 


Blue Valkyrie

Not seen such Bravery!
Sep 1, 2012
32,165
Valhalla
Palace(h) - Win
Liverpool(h) - Win
Burnley(h) - Win
Watford(h) - Win


28 points+ and a Merry Christmas.

:rock:
 


8049

Well-known member
Jan 26, 2015
326
Berkshire
Just done a quick calculation of the situation for the rest of the rest.

The table shows: current points, number of non-big 6 games remaining, number of points still needed to get to 38 points, points per game required, how many points over season that points per game equates to and finally, the position that total number of points would have got you to in the last season 38 points were needed to survive (2010/2011).
The aim is show who has the toughest test to survive - either in terms of results against the rest, or upsetting the odds against the big boys. The higher the position, the tougher the ask.

The last time 40 points was needed to survive was 2010/2011 so I agree that 38 points will probably be enough but the relative difficulty of the remaining fixtures stays the same for all the clubs

Table.PNG
 




larus

Well-known member
Just done a quick calculation of the situation for the rest of the rest.

The table shows: current points, number of non-big 6 games remaining, number of points still needed to get to 38 points, points per game required, how many points over season that points per game equates to and finally, the position that total number of points would have got you to in the last season 38 points were needed to survive (2010/2011).
The aim is show who has the toughest test to survive - either in terms of results against the rest, or upsetting the odds against the big boys. The higher the position, the tougher the ask.

The last time 40 points was needed to survive was 2010/2011 so I agree that 38 points will probably be enough but the relative difficulty of the remaining fixtures stays the same for all the clubs

View attachment 91527

I like this. It deserves it's own thread and to be updated frequently (after each batch of games - say after the usual Monday game).
 





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