[Politics] Hammond's Budget

Foolg · Nov 22, 2017

Triggaaar said:
Why would it do that? Surely plenty of people buying homes under £300k won't be buying their first place, so they won't be expecting to pay more for a house.

As I say, brief reading, but the OBR assumes that the removal of stamp duty will simply increase house prices by the same amount. Seems to be a view shared by quite a few (I'm no expert).

Triggaaar · Nov 22, 2017

Foolg said:
As I say, brief reading, but the OBR assumes that the removal of stamp duty will simply increase house prices by the same amount. Seems to be a view shared by quite a few (I'm no expert).

That makes no sense. How much something sells for is governed by how much someone is willing to accept for it, and how much someone is willing to pay. Those that get the tax break may now be willing to pay a bit more (as their total spend won't go up), but those who don't get the break won't, and those selling are still willing to accept what they would have (of course they'd like more, people always do, but their bottom line doesn't move). If enough people get the tax break then prices could go up a bit to reflect that, but they won't go up by the same amount, that doesn't make sense.

vegster · Nov 22, 2017

Berty23 said:
We really don't. That combined with Brexit would bankrupt the country for my great grandchildren (my kids are not ten yet)

Haven't you noticed we are already in a mess ? Look on the bright side, the increase in Personal Allowance is equivalent to the pay rise you probably won't get this year. And the really good news is that Phil reckons the deficit should be manageable by 2022 ! That means that I will pile in the cash then for my last 5 years of work before I retire ! By then I probably won't pay any tax at all on my earnings as my allowance is rising faster than my wages.... marvellous scenes !

Thunder Bolt · Nov 22, 2017

vegster said:
Haven't you noticed we are already in a mess ? Look on the bright side, the increase in Personal Allowance is equivalent to the pay rise you probably won't get this year. And the really good news is that Phil reckons the deficit should be manageable by 2022 ! That means that I will pile in the cash then for my last 5 years of work before I retire ! By then I probably won't pay any tax at all on my earnings as my allowance is rising faster than my wages.... marvellous scenes !

Sorry to break it to you, but I have a small personal pension and State pension, but still pay income tax.

vegster · Nov 22, 2017

Thunder Bolt said:
Sorry to break it to you, but I have a small personal pension and State pension, but still pay income tax.

Obviously you don't have enough readies to afford an expert to shift your pension's through the Virgin Islands then ?

Thunder Bolt · Nov 22, 2017

Chicken Run said:
We need an extreme left government for five years to remind us what a bad idea that is, might be needed as a short term soloution&#55358;&#56609;

This is the problem. There isn't a single politician or party, I can vote for at the moment. The LibDems are the nearest with their call for another EU vote.

Thunder Bolt · Nov 22, 2017

vegster said:
Obviously you don't have enough readies to afford an expert to shift your pension's through the Virgin Islands then ?

Thanks for making me laugh.

Foolg · Nov 22, 2017

Triggaaar said:
That makes no sense. How much something sells for is governed by how much someone is willing to accept for it, and how much someone is willing to pay. Those that get the tax break may now be willing to pay a bit more (as their total spend won't go up), but those who don't get the break won't, and those selling are still willing to accept what they would have (of course they'd like more, people always do, but their bottom line doesn't move). If enough people get the tax break then prices could go up a bit to reflect that, but they won't go up by the same amount, that doesn't make sense.

From the OBR:

‘The effect of this reduction in future stamp duty costs would be expected to feed through into house prices – to be ‘capitalised’ – relatively quickly. Since the relief frees up first-time buyers’ savings to put towards higher deposits, these higher prices can be paid.
‘We assume that a temporary relief would feed one-for-one into house prices, but a permanent one will have twice that effect. On this basis, post-stamp duty prices paid by first-time buyers would actually be higher with the relief than without it.’

If I was to follow an opinion it would likely be that one. Even if not fully like for like increases, the 'saving' for most first time buyers will be well under £1000, unless you are buying a property worth £300,000+ (which if you can afford that would suggest that you aren't someone REALLY struggling to buy).

LlcoolJ · Nov 22, 2017

Thunder Bolt said:
This is the problem. There isn't a single politician or party, I can vote for at the moment. The LibDems are the nearest with their call for another EU vote.

So true.

We have a Tory party that is totally fragmented and has had to pander to the far right UKIP nutters in order to cling to power (despite half the party, including the PM disagreeing with everything that they stand for) and then an equally split Labour party who spout far left policy without any understanding of how they would implement it.

If ever there was a time that needed a proper centrist political party with sensible policies then it's now. Unfortunately we have the Lib Dems who nobody will vote for.

What a f***ing mess.

Pretty pink fairy · Nov 22, 2017

Thunder Bolt said:
This is the problem. There isn't a single politician or party, I can vote for at the moment. The LibDems are the nearest with their call for another EU vote.

what a waste of time those clowns are, another EU vote :laugh:

no wonder NICK CLEGG LOST HIS SEAT :dunce:

regards
DR

mikeyjh · Nov 22, 2017

Uncle C said:
Can we do a reality check here. The Tories are being accused of pandering to the old generation, but at the same time wrecking the NHS for the generation that needs it most. So how does that work.

You shouldn't underestimate the Tories' ability to give with one hand and shaft with the other in a populist slight of hand that calms their core support...

vegster · Nov 22, 2017

Thunder Bolt said:
Sorry to break it to you, but I have a small personal pension and State pension, but still pay income tax.

Hang on ! Your Personal Allowance will be £11,000 pa ..... that's a tidy little income in retirement if you are currently paying Income Tax ?

LlcoolJ · Nov 22, 2017

Foolg said:
From the OBR:

‘The effect of this reduction in future stamp duty costs would be expected to feed through into house prices – to be ‘capitalised’ – relatively quickly. Since the relief frees up first-time buyers’ savings to put towards higher deposits, these higher prices can be paid.
‘We assume that a temporary relief would feed one-for-one into house prices, but a permanent one will have twice that effect. On this basis, post-stamp duty prices paid by first-time buyers would actually be higher with the relief than without it.’

If I was to follow an opinion it would likely be that one. Even if not fully like for like increases, the 'saving' for most first time buyers will be well under £1000, unless you are buying a property worth £300,000+ (which if you can afford that would suggest that you aren't someone REALLY struggling to buy).

Exactly. Summed up succinctly in the article I linked to above.....

According to the BBC, the great man saved the best till last but frankly, a saving of a couple of thousand pounds on average for first-time homebuyers is far from exciting. The vast majority won’t be able to find the initial £300,000 to buy the property thus missing out on a pretty meagre kickback.

Headline grabbing rubbish as per. It'll change nothing.

Triggaaar · Nov 22, 2017

Foolg said:
From the OBR:

‘The effect of this reduction in future stamp duty costs would be expected to feed through into house prices – to be ‘capitalised’ – relatively quickly. Since the relief frees up first-time buyers’ savings to put towards higher deposits, these higher prices can be paid.
‘We assume that a temporary relief would feed one-for-one into house prices, but a permanent one will have twice that effect. On this basis, post-stamp duty prices paid by first-time buyers would actually be higher with the relief than without it.’

If I was to follow an opinion it would likely be that one.

Please yourself.

Stamp duty on a £299k home averages at 1.7%.

"Responding to Mr Hammond’s announcement, the OBR also said that the move would also likely have the effect of driving house prices up even more – by around 0.3 per cent, with most of the increase happening in 2018."

So if the saving is 1.7% and the increase is 0.3%, how is that the same?

vegster · Nov 22, 2017

mikeyjh said:
You shouldn't underestimate the Tories' ability to give with one hand and shaft with the other in a populist slight of hand that calms their core support...

Indeed, the Blue Rinser's have fallen for this time and time again.

mikeyjh · Nov 22, 2017

Foolg said:
As I say, brief reading, but the OBR assumes that the removal of stamp duty will simply increase house prices by the same amount. Seems to be a view shared by quite a few (I'm no expert).

It's not exactly rocket science, increase demand without addressing supply and prices go up - So box office Phil manages to reduce the tax take and help the housing crisis not one bit, spectacular economics. As ever, the main beneficiaries are those who are in their forever home with plenty of equity.....

Thunder Bolt · Nov 22, 2017

vegster said:
Hang on ! Your Personal Allowance will be £11,000 pa ..... that's a tidy little income in retirement if you are currently paying Income Tax ?

You think? We've still got a mortgage. It doesn't go very far.

LlcoolJ · Nov 22, 2017

As an example (using Trig's £299k house). If you got together the 10% deposit of £29,900 then your mortgage would be £269,100.

Chucking in an average interest rate of say 3.5% (doesn't really matter as the figures wont alter much) then your repayments over 25 years would be £1,347 a month.

A saving of 1.7% on the cost price would be £5,083 so if (as most would have to do) this is added to the mortgage then the repayments would increase to £1,373 p/m.

So you'd be paying £26 more a month without what is basically the maximum saving in stamp duty with the new policy.

I suggest that that is **** all and therefore this "flagship policy" is nothing more than smoke and mirrors.

vegster · Nov 22, 2017

Thunder Bolt said:
You think? We've still got a mortgage. It doesn't go very far.

Ah, I see. Thanks to hard work, a divorce and being an only child I am now in possession of a house... however, my most recent company pension which started 2 years ago is expected to produce the tidy sum of £335 per annum ! I have another company pension from way back and a private one that I paid in to for a while when I had the cash but i'll be lucky to get £500 a month from them combined.

Live by the sea · Nov 22, 2017

The Only thing to remember is that at least the Conservatives have an understanding of how to run the economy, labour and especially Marxist Corbyn has zero idea. All he wants to do is buy every ones vote by spend spend until he bankrupts our country

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[Politics] Hammond's Budget

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