[Albion] What will be the Magic number of points to survive in the PL?

Berty23 · Nov 1, 2017

kevo said:
Surely if the top six are much better this season, this means the teams below will get very little change out of them, which in turn means overall points totals for the other 14 will be lower. Doesn't this therefore imply the number of points needed to survive will also be lower? I reckon something like 36 would be enough.

My point was the opposite in that I don't think there are teams that will fall away.

Official Old Man · Nov 1, 2017

Forget safety.
7th last season was Everton on 61 pts.
8th was Southampton on only 46 pts
Our target should, knowing top 7 is 'big money spent' we should be 8th.

Klaas · Nov 2, 2017

Whoislloydy said:
Correct, West Ham was 02/03 season. 42 points from 38 games.

The record points for a relegated team from the English top flight was Palace 92/93 with 49 points from 42 games.

Ha, they just love holding shitty records don't they?

Perkino · Nov 2, 2017

37 to stay up 47 for top half and 55 for 7th

DavidRyder · Nov 2, 2017

One more than Palace get and one less than we get would suffice.

Nathan · Nov 2, 2017

If we win the next 28 games, 96 points will be more than enough.

Triggaaar · Nov 2, 2017

tronnogull said:
Having done all this I'm not sure it tells us much

Harsh but fair.

.....we already knew that until the table develops it is better for teams around us to draw their games.

I'm going with the idea that the bookies are the best representation of odds, so I'd like the relegation favourites to drop points at the expense of those expected to finishes mid table.

Blackadder · Nov 2, 2017

City are 3 wins away from safety already (not bad for October, when the last game was played).

Triggaaar · Nov 2, 2017

Blackadder said:
City are 3 wins away from safety already (not bad for October, when the last game was played).

They're 2/9 to win the title! It's a one team league.

Machiavelli · Nov 2, 2017

Hotchilidog said:
35-38pts I reckon. Keep 40 as the target and that should take care of it.

Yup. This is the best way to look at it.

throbinson · Nov 2, 2017

Rugrat said:
It's unlikely we'll get anything from the top 6, if that were the case then our current form gets us to 39

Why is that unlikely? Look what Huddersfield did to Utd

Rogero · Nov 2, 2017

When Hull got promoted am I right that they started the season with about 13 players. ? Have clubs gone up and not recruited?

Machiavelli · Nov 2, 2017

Triggaaar said:
Ok, from last year's final table:

Watford 40 points
Hull 34 points
Middlesbrough 28 points
Sunderland 24 points

How many points did Middlesbrough need to survive? Was it just 35, 1 more than 18th? No. But that's all Watford needed, and all any team above them needed.
But what if Watford only got 35 points - who got the points that they didn't get? If it was Hull, suddenly 35 isn't enough for Watford either.
So it's more complicated than 1 more than 18th, or whatever 17th got. I believe the best approximation is an average of the two.

I'll give you that. It's ever so slightly more complicated than one more than 18th got: it's either get one more than 18th got, or get the same points as 18th got and a better goal difference/scored/whatever else is used to differentiate teams.

Triggaaar · Nov 2, 2017

Machiavelli said:
I'll give you that. It's ever so slightly more complicated than one more than 18th got: it's either get one more than 18th got, or get the same points as 18th got and a better goal difference/scored/whatever else is used to differentiate teams.

You're making too much noise to catch anything.

Blackadder · Nov 2, 2017

Rugrat said:
It's unlikely we'll get anything from the top 6, if that were the case then our current form gets us to 39

Well anything is possible.

At the start of the season, I had a list of targets for the Albion.

Score a goal. Done.
Get first points. Done.
Achieve first home win. Done.
Beat Derby's 11 points. Done
Achieve first away win. Done.

The remaining targets (apart from staying up obviously) are
First point against a TOP 6 side
First home win against a TOP 6 side.
First Away win against a TOP 6 side.

After the City game, I think a draw is definitely achievable. A win is possible. We may have to wait until next season for an away win (But you never know

)

Yoda · Nov 2, 2017

Blackadder said:
Well anything is possible.

At the start of the season, I had a list of targets for the Albion.

Score a goal. Done.
Get first points. Done.
Achieve first home win. Done.
Beat Derby's 11 points. Done
Achieve first away win. Done.

The remaining targets (apart from staying up obviously) are
First point against a TOP 6 side
First home win against a TOP 6 side.
First Away win against a TOP 6 side.

After the City game, I think a draw is definitely achievable. A win is possible. We may have to wait until next season for an away win (But you never know )

I would like to add one more to that list, win from a losing position.

Blackadder · Nov 2, 2017

Yoda said:
I would like to add one more to that list, win from a losing position.

Oh yes. Nearly achieved on Sunday.

A1X · Nov 2, 2017

I think at some point we will need to pick up points against one of the big guns, especially at home. The other teams likely to be around us already have. Liverpool or Chelsea at home might be good opportunities.

TSB · Nov 2, 2017

38. You're welcome.

OzMike · Nov 2, 2017

One more than the bottom three.

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[Albion] What will be the Magic number of points to survive in the PL?

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