2nd Test: England v South Africa at Nottingham, Jul 14-18, 2017

Papa Lazarou · Jul 17, 2017

GT49er said:
Amended a bit for you, just to point out that we're not putting out a bunch of batting incompetents - also you missed out the no.11 batsman who participated in the highest Test Match 10th. wicket stand ever.

All in all though, I still consider SA to be strong favourites - and I still consider 'strong favourites' to sum up the situation quite accurately.

I understand Cook's record, but I don't think he's the player he was back then.. I'd love him to bring out a daddy century today and we can build an innings round him.

Our recent test performances have included a number of early innings collapses, with 20-40 for 3 more the norm than the exception... Cook is current part of that problem, as he's very vulnerable early in his innings.

The batting line up we have IS talented and capable, it's more a case of whether Root & Cook aside, any of them can be bothered to graft an innings.

ManOfSussex · Jul 17, 2017

vegster said:
Doomed I'm afraid. It's just the manner of the defeat to be decided. Anyone care to look up the largest losing margin in runs?

For all England matches the biggest is losing by 562 runs at The Oval to Australia in 1934. Against South Africa, it's losing by 356 runs at Lords in 1994.

GT49er · Jul 17, 2017

Papa Lazarou said:
I understand Cook's record, but I don't think he's the player he was back then.. I'd love him to bring out a daddy century today and we can build an innings round him.

Our recent test performances have included a number of early innings collapses, with 20-40 for 3 more the norm than the exception... Cook is current part of that problem, as he's very vulnerable early in his innings.

The batting line up we have IS talented and capable, it's more a case of whether Root & Cook aside, any of them can be bothered to graft an innings.

Several of them have done just that - I don't see any of them that can't be bothered. The pressure, of course, will be a major factor, which is why SA will be the strong favourites. Records are there to be broken, to be sure - but obviously it doesn't happen very often.

Simster · Jul 17, 2017

Clearly South Africa are overwhelming favourites. England would need a world record run chase FFS.

But, and it is quite a big but IMO - it IS possible. England bat very deep if they can apply themselves, and the weather is likely to present perfect batting conditions. I've stuck £15 on them to win at 9.6 (17/2 ish), not because I think they'll win but because I think that represents a value bet. If England can settle and have a good morning session, those odds will tumble dramatically very quickly.

vegster · Jul 17, 2017

Lots of positive talk on TMS this morning....expect a wicket quickly.

hans kraay fan club · Jul 17, 2017

Simster said:
Clearly South Africa are overwhelming favourites. England would need a world record run chase FFS.

But, and it is quite a big but IMO - it IS possible. England bat very deep if they can apply themselves, and the weather is likely to present perfect batting conditions. I've stuck £15 on them to win at 9.6 (17/2 ish), not because I think they'll win but because I think that represents a value bet. If England can settle and have a good morning session, those odds will tumble dramatically very quickly.

I don't think that is anything close to 'value' I'm afraid.

How many THOUSANDS of Test matches have been played in history? How many times has a total this big been chased down?

There's a reason that it has NEVER happened.

4 day old pitch. Half-decent spinner in the other side. Flaky England top order.

It isn't impossible, not quite, but I'd have wanted at least 40/1, to consider it value.

A draw would be worth consideration, though essentially you'd simply be betting on some resistance coupled with a large dose of unseasonable weather sweeping in.

Simster · Jul 17, 2017

Jesus, odds have already come in from 9.6 15 minutes ago to 7.8!

hans kraay fan club said:
I don't think that is anything close to 'value' I'm afraid.

How many THOUSANDS of Test matches have been played in history? How many times has a total this big been chased down?

There's a reason that it has NEVER happened.

4 day old pitch. Half-decent spinner in the other side. Flaky England top order.

It isn't impossible, not quite, but I'd have wanted at least 40/1, to consider it value.

A draw would be worth consideration, though essentially you'd simply be betting on some resistance coupled with a large dose of unseasonable weather sweeping in.

The market disagrees with you.

As for your reasoning, it's flawed IMO. You don't want to be asking how many thousands of test matches has a total this big been chased down as a percentage of TOTAL matches. You should ask yourself how many thousands of test matches has a total this big been chased down as a percentage of matches where that has been a) set as a target b) with a side that bats deep c) in weather that is perfect for batting and d) where the 3rd inning was the highest of the game suggesting that the pitch isn't breaking up.

Again, I'm not saying we WILL win - I don't think we will. But if England have a brilliant morning session (which isn't beyond the realms of possibility), it will focus minds further down the order as they see a world record chase in their sights in favourable conditions.

Titanic · Jul 17, 2017

One down... Jennings clean bowled by Philander :nono:

4-1 (5.5 overs)

Off stump flattened as he plays down the Bakerloo :nono:

Titanic · Jul 17, 2017

Simster said:
Jesus, odds have already come in from 9.6 15 minutes ago to 7.8!

I think they might have just have drifted somewhat!

JJ McClure · Jul 17, 2017

Well that's a good start. Not.

Nathan · Jul 17, 2017

Start the car...

Simster · Jul 17, 2017

Simster said:
Jesus, odds have already come in from 9.6 15 minutes ago to 7.8!

The market disagrees with you.

As for your reasoning, it's flawed IMO. You don't want to be asking how many thousands of test matches has a total this big been chased down as a percentage of TOTAL matches. You should ask yourself how many thousands of test matches has a total this big been chased down as a percentage of matches where that has been a) set as a target b) with a side that bats deep c) in weather that is perfect for batting and d) where the 3rd inning was the highest of the game suggesting that the pitch isn't breaking up.

Again, I'm not saying we WILL win - I don't think we will. But if England have a brilliant morning session (which isn't beyond the realms of possibility), it will focus minds further down the order as they see a world record chase in their sights in favourable conditions.

Why the F*CK do I bother?

dazzer6666 · Jul 17, 2017

hans kraay fan club said:
I don't think that is anything close to 'value' I'm afraid.

How many THOUSANDS of Test matches have been played in history? How many times has a total this big been chased down?

There's a reason that it has NEVER happened.

4 day old pitch. Half-decent spinner in the other side. Flaky England top order.

It isn't impossible, not quite, but I'd have wanted at least 40/1, to consider it value.

A draw would be worth consideration, though essentially you'd simply be betting on some resistance coupled with a large dose of unseasonable weather sweeping in.

100% this. 'Strong favourites' is underplaying it. The highest EVER winning run chase in test cricket (c2500 matches I think) is 418.

Apart from a 1939 match, 474 has never been passed in the 4th innings, and 450 reached only 3 times (none of which resulted in a win for the team batting 4th).

We'd be looking at a borderline miracle, basically. 100/1 would be worth a small punt perhaps.

BensGrandad · Jul 17, 2017

Good start to the day

vegster · Jul 17, 2017

ManOfSussex said:
For all England matches the biggest is losing by 562 runs at The Oval to Australia in 1934. Against South Africa, it's losing by 356 runs at Lords in 1994.

Thanks... Hopefully we won't set a new losing margin today.

Hillian1 · Jul 17, 2017

Boooooooooooooooooooooooooo.

GT49er · Jul 17, 2017

Titanic said:
I think they might have just have drifted somewhat!

I should hope so too - the price was ridiculously low. What were the odds that Rod Marsh and Denis Lilley(?) got on England winning the Botham test in 1981? Damn sight more than 17/2 - more like 500/1 wasn't it? I would have thought 100/1 would be more like 'value' for this current match.

Simster · Jul 17, 2017

GT49er said:
I should hope so too - the price was ridiculously low. What were the odds that Rod Marsh and Denis Lilley(?) got on England winning the Botham test in 1981? Damn sight more than 17/2 - more like 500/1 wasn't it? I would have thought 100/1 would be more like 'value' for this current match.

Do you seriously believe England's chances are anything like what they were at Headingley in 1981? He was the state of the match at one point in that one:

Aus 401 ao
Eng 174 ao
Eng 135/7

England were still nearly 100 from making Australia bat again when odds of 500/1 were offered.

Anyway, I'm half expecting England to lose another wicket now that I've contributed on here again. :lolol:

Simster · Jul 17, 2017

And it nearly happened right there. :lolol:

dazzer6666 · Jul 17, 2017

Simster said:
Do you seriously believe England's chances are anything like what they were at Headingley in 1981? He was the state of the match at one point in that one:

Aus 401 ao
Eng 174 ao
Eng 135/7

England were still nearly 100 from making Australia bat again when odds of 500/1 were offered.

Anyway, I'm half expecting England to lose another wicket now that I've contributed on here again.

Well the chances statistically are about the same.........winning after following on is pretty rare, but winning by scoring 474 in the 4th innings has never happened......

Were loose by 200.

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2nd Test: England v South Africa at Nottingham, Jul 14-18, 2017

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