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To avoid bed wetting - the staying up tracker 36 - level - WE ARE STAYING UP



AZ Gull

AZ Gull

@SeagullsAcademy Threads: @bhafcacademy
Oct 14, 2003
11,742
Chandler, AZ
Giraffe said:
Quick update after yesterday's disappointment. We are now right on par for 40 points.

16 games in, we have been as expected in 8, better than expected in 4, and worse than expected in 4.

Slightly worrying we need 7 points out of the next 5 games to maintain parity with two of these away to Chelsea and Spurs. A tough ask on current form. But I wouldn't rule out a cheeky point against one of those. Hard to see us beating both Burnley and Watford though.

Note on the same basis Palace are now five points behind, but need to beat at Watford at home this week just to maintain that.
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Yep, and the next four games are against the teams currently positioned 6th, 7th, 9th and 3rd in the table.

I'm normally just about the most optimistic Albion fan you could wish to meet, but after the shockingly bad performance yesterday it wouldn't surprise me if we were in the relegation zone by the time we play Newcastle. The Burnley and Watford matches are the only games I'll get to all season, and I'll be cheering the team on as loudly as anyone, but I'll be watching with a lot more hope than expectation. :down:
 




Bold Seagull

Bold Seagull

strong and stable with me, or...
Mar 18, 2010
29,799
Hove
How many were seriously expecting to go through the season without a sticky run losing to sides you hoped to get points from?

We've had a bit of a poor run of form in the last 6 games that has turned up 1 win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, 2 of those defeats against top 6 teams. We've still got 5 points from 6 games.

40 points is the 'safe' safe target, but realistically, 37 is probably going to be enough, maybe even 36. I'll take us being 20/21 points at the end of the year, any less and I'll join in the panicking, but not yet...

Far from avoiding bed wetting, this tracker appears to be encouraging it! :laugh:
 










D

Deleted member 2719

Guest
One Love said:
Huddersfield are obviously going for a home fortress mentality as the best way to stay up.

We need to do the same.

The difference being that they go for their home games from start to finish whereas we start lethargic and lazy as though we're trying not to over-tire and then go 1-0 down and end up chasing the game.

We have got to change and quickly.
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A very good point which i agree 100% on, do we start so slow because Chris says take it easy lads we have 90 mins to beat them and i want you keeping it tight, hence winding them down. I feel there is no motivational attacking tactics mentioned at all.
 




W

Wardy's twin

Well-known member
Oct 21, 2014
8,444
Giraffe said:
It is depressing reading for sure. The only comfort I am taking is that Palace are 5 points below their tracker. All the time we maintain that gap we have a chance. But at the 11 game stage we were plus 5 and they were minus 7, a 12 point gap. It's now 5. Just talked myself out of even that positive point.
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This is my first viewing of this. I did something similar last year for the top 6 in the championship, is it possible to do similar here for the bottom 10 in PL?

How did you weight the chances of the W/D/L is that just based on last years positions?

Could you factor in the last 16 games into the form rating?
 




Bold Seagull

Bold Seagull

strong and stable with me, or...
Mar 18, 2010
29,799
Hove
One Love said:
I see a major flaw in your plan.

We have 11 home games left and 4 are against top 6 sides. That leaves 7.

You have forecast us to win 6 of these when our last 4 home games (ignoring Liverpool) have all been draws.

Your tracker is depressing reading now :)
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It's depressing if you believe a season isn't full of ebbs and flows, runs of results, times of fortune, times of no luck.

I stand by my prediction that 37 may well be enough, based on how many teams are already at just 1ppg or less. At least 3 of these 8 teams scoring at 1ppg or less will score under 1ppg for the rest of the season and won't reach 37 points. While you don't want it to get down to that, before you really panic, 20 / 21 points from the next 21 games should be enough for us.

5 wins, 6 draws, 10 defeats from our remaining games. With Bournemouth, West Ham, Swansea, Leicester, Huddersfield still to come at home, as well as Burnley, Watford, we still have plenty available to pick off these points, as well as aways to Palace, Newcastle, West Brom, Stoke, Burnley.

We also may well be playing the likes of Spurs, ManUtd and Liverpool at the end of the season with league places pretty much decided and them thinking about Europe or cup finals, resting their squad. A lot to happen yet.
 








Giraffe

Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patron
Aug 8, 2005
26,551
Apologies for the delayed update but here it is after Spurs.

Still on par.
17 games, 9 as expected, 4 better, 4 worse.
Next two look tough to keep up with and therefore I expect us to dip back below the line for the first time since Game 7. :(

However we only need 8 points from the next 8 games to maintain par. When you look at it like that there is reason to be optimistic I think. :albion2:

Also it's worth noting that despite their heroics Palace are still five below their target. Given they are only three points below us that suggests they have had a marginally easier run so far.
 

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Giraffe

Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patron
Aug 8, 2005
26,551
Wardy's twin said:
This is my first viewing of this. I did something similar last year for the top 6 in the championship, is it possible to do similar here for the bottom 10 in PL?

How did you weight the chances of the W/D/L is that just based on last years positions?
Click to expand...

Yes this is entirely based on the theory of assuming points will come versus the surviving bottom 8 from last season (10th to 17th) plus Newcastle and Huddersfield. 10 wins at home and 10 draws away, giving the magic 40 points.
 








P

Petee

Well-known member
Nov 22, 2010
3,031
Brighton
Giraffe said:
Apologies for the delayed update but here it is after Spurs.

Still on par.
17 games, 9 as expected, 4 better, 4 worse.
Next two look tough to keep up with and therefore I expect us to dip back below the line for the first time since Game 7. :(

However we only need 8 points from the next 8 games to maintain par. When you look at it like that there is reason to be optimistic I think. :albion2:

Also it's worth noting that despite their heroics Palace are still five below their target. Given they are only three points below us that suggests they have had a marginally easier run so far.
Click to expand...

Can we maybe change the colour scheme so it is green and red rather than blue. Starting to look a bit Palace.
 


Giraffe

Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patron
Aug 8, 2005
26,551
Petee said:
Can we maybe change the colour scheme so it is green and red rather than blue. Starting to look a bit Palace.
Click to expand...

I had the same thought myself! Consider it done for next time.
 


Giraffe

Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patron
Aug 8, 2005
26,551
Petee said:
Can we maybe change the colour scheme so it is green and red rather than blue. Starting to look a bit Palace.
Click to expand...

Done :thumbsup:
 

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