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The economy









Bold Seagull

strong and stable with me, or...
Mar 18, 2010
29,719
Hove
Conveniently forgetting it was down at 1.11 in January I see. As someone who needs to change Sterling into Euros quite often I'd say it was strengthening. Not back to 1.40 yet but give it time.....

The country is clearly not falling apart post Brexit but let's continue to peddle the fact that it is.

I thought we are still pre-Brexit!?
 






W.C.

New member
Oct 31, 2011
4,927
And what about the robots?
 




lawros left foot

Glory hunting since 1969
Jun 11, 2011
13,673
Worthing
Conveniently forgetting it was down at 1.11 in January I see. As someone who needs to change Sterling into Euros quite often I'd say it was strengthening. Not back to 1.40 yet but give it time.....

The country is clearly not falling apart post Brexit but let's continue to peddle the fact that it is.


Let's continue to peddle the fact,WE HAVEN'T LEFT YET.
 




Machiavelli

Well-known member
Oct 11, 2013
16,544
Fiveways
Obviously a JCL / youngster!

Yeah, we're bang in trouble with double-digit inflation and interest rates of 15% + >3m unemployed and crap GDP - oops, that was the early 1980's ....

Right now, the economy is cushty compared to back then - get a grip man!
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History suggests we're not doing so bad ...

Well, wise old sage, I beg to differ. That you would state what you have suggests that you believe it, or that you don't and you're actually quite comfortable and complacent. Neither of which is doing too well for your position. To flesh out this rather harsh position I've adopted to you, I'll respond to all the points you've raised. You said:

Yeah, we're bang in trouble with double-digit inflation and interest rates of 15% + >3m unemployed and crap GDP - oops, that was the early 1980's ....

Well, it wasn't the early 80s, although if you take the early 90s, late 70s and the 80s together, all of those phenomena you indicate did occur, although by no means simultaneously. Double-digit inflation was there in the late 70s; interest rates momentarily hit 15% but it was only days/weeks that lasted in the early 90s leading up to the withdrawal from the ERM; unemployment grew through the early 80s, and was very high from the mid 80s to the early 90s when it did hit 3m (at least once, if my memory is correct); GDP was not crap in the 80s, in fact it was much better than it has been for the last decade.
As to your three charts:
-- the first one shows historically abnormally low interest rates over the past decade; this is not a sign of the strength of the economy, but rather its weakness. But most decent economists reckon that such low interest rates is the new normal, and will continue into the future -- again, hardly a sign of strength
-- that unemployment chart you provide is just plain wrong. Official unemployment figures are in the region of 1.5-2m and have been for a while. See, for instance:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38661443
This also hides the extent to which there is underemployment in the economy
-- and that final chart on GDP is just idiotic; it suggests that the UK economy wasn't far off zero 50 years ago, despite the fact that the UK was the world's largest economy throughout the 19th and into the 20th century

If you want more reliable sources, see:

http://webarchive.nationalarchives....p-in-the-uk/sty-long-term-profile-of-gdp.html

http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/capital21c/en/pdf/F10.10.pdf

And, while we're on Piketty, you may as well look at the wealth of data he's provided, because he has provided one of the most comprehensive analyses of the economy for over two centuries, initially basing it on Britain and France but increasingly beyond that to other parts of the world. See:

http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/capital21c/en/Piketty2014FiguresTablesLinks.pdf

And to rework your final comment, history suggests that we need to work within a low growth economy ...
 


LowKarate

New member
Jan 6, 2004
2,002
Wombling free
Back up to 1.18 to the Euro and 1.29 USD, wow, that is nearly back up to September 2016 levels. 'Continues to strengthen' when you're still crawling around rock bottom, I guess any rise can be described as that.

Financial press is all about hyperbole.

Today the pound SURGED about 0.3 cents. On another day oil ROCKETS up $1 a barrel or Sainsbury's shares PLUMMET 3p to close 0.7% lower on the day.

I detect the HAND of Enrest.
 


vegster

Sanity Clause
May 5, 2008
27,867






vegster

Sanity Clause
May 5, 2008
27,867
Conveniently forgetting it was down at 1.11 in January I see. As someone who needs to change Sterling into Euros quite often I'd say it was strengthening. Not back to 1.40 yet but give it time.....

The country is clearly not falling apart post Brexit but let's continue to peddle the fact that it is.


Inflation up, economy slowing, wage growth slowing, government debt up....yep, everything rosy.
 


Raleigh Chopper

New member
Sep 1, 2011
12,054
Plymouth
On the eve of one of, if not the greatest day in our clubs history people still want to argue about politics and the economy.
I do worry about some of you guys out there sometimes.
Surely it should be fish puns or poo even a look at where I am going for my holidays thread.
I am so excited the last thing on my mind are the cretins from the Houses of Parliament or the economic state of the country.
The world will be a much better place to live in tomorrow night anyway.
 




larus

Well-known member
Inflation up, economy slowing, wage growth slowing, government debt up....yep, everything rosy.

Please remind us of the state of he economy after Brown. Running a deficit of circa 10% of GDP.

Tories always get elected to clean up a financial mess created by Labour.
Labour always get elected when people believe the bullsh*t taht we can spend loads on services but only by taxing OTHER people.

The problem IMO I'd down to the belief that we have some form of entitlement to something from the state. We don't. The state gets it's money from other people, so this entitlement culture is that too many beleive they haev the right to sepnd other people's money. Now, I'm not saying that the rich should not pay their fair share, but I've yet to see labour really say how it intends to close the massive loopholes in corporation tax for large multinationals.

The welfare state should be seen as a safety net an not a lifestyle choice. Benefits should only be paid if you need them (for example, rich pensioners should not be entitled to a pension IMO). Child benefit should be limited to 2 children and only for those with a combined income below a certain level.

The tax system should be simplified, NI should be abolished and incorporated into income tax. Then there would be no upper limit on NI, but it would be clearer. Companies who you dubious methods to syphon profited by 'intellectual copyrights' etc should risk the fines being for thw whole amount of profit 'hidden', not just the tax portion. More international cooperation is required, but I fear that the global elite hold too much sway.
 



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