General Election 2017

BigGully · Apr 28, 2017

Herr Tubthumper said:
Desperate isn't a word I'd use. Do I want the Tories to fail? Difficult question as a lot of harm will be done. Do I trust them to make the right decisions on the economy? No, eye watering levels of national debt never ever seen before, tax revenues down and slowing economic growth suggest they're not a party to be trusted with the economy.

Yours clearly isnt an accurate assessment on these growth figures, you are gleefully implying it shows the UK's economy is beginning to fail, but if you care to be more balanced you could quite easily use the same data to offer something far more optimistic, personally commenting on one set of quarterly economic data unlessit is quite extreme is a pointless exercise.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39743129

Kalimantan Gull · Apr 28, 2017

Its the kind of lead (or deficit) that parties tend to have mid-term, far out from an election, and everything tightens up by the time of a real campaign. But the timeline is so short here one wonders if it will.

I can't think of another time when a snap election has been called in these circumstances, so maybe she'll ride it to the polls. There will be some closing of the gap, but I have a feeling that the tightening will happen in places where it won't matter, however, and changes in northern suburbs, general low turnout and a collapse in the UKIP vote will give her the majority she wants. There'll be a little bounce back to the Libdems, up ten seats or so, half from Tories and half from Labour.

and then we've got five years of classic Tory government, lucky us.

Guinness Boy · Apr 28, 2017

Bozza said:
Anyway, getting back on track, and something I've been meaning to post for a few days...

Am I the only one right of centre (but I wouldn't say absolutely right) that is somewhat surprised by the lead that the Tories and May, in particular, seem to have. I can find very little to endear me to Theresa May whatsoever. She just seems thoroughly unlikeable with no warmth of any note.

I'm not sure I'm "right of centre" but I am struggling with this election big time. May is one of the most unlikeable politicians I can think of, as you say, and prone to change her mind every thirty seconds. Her only answer to questions seems to be to repeat the words "strong" and "stable" until they become meaningless. I've never really been one for the Tories either. However....

Firstly I would not trust Corbyn to run a bath, let alone a country. Maybe May's mantra is to highlight further that the country would be weak and unstable under him and I believe it would. That probably leaves me with the Lib Dems but I can't help but think of them as the party of Bellotti and Baker. Plus my sitting MP, Peter Kyle, has just sent round leaflets that basically completely distance him from the Labour leader, emphasise that he's pro-Remain and ask people to vote for him on his personal record. Then there's the Greens. Some are good. Some are mad as a box full of frogs. I'm not sure which we'll get standing here.

My thoughts at the moment are either to vote for Kyle based on his pro-remain, anti-Corbyn stance and hope that he's there to help the PLP clear up the mess when Corbyn's Labour are all but wiped out or to go with a wasted vote for the Lib Dems in the hope that a large popular vote for them in the election across the country will take the edges off a hard Brexit.

But either way - given the Lib Dems aren't going to take power - I will be staying up late on election night hoping for a victory by a party I cannot stand led by a woman I find hideous because the alternative, to me, is unthinkable.

Herr Tubthumper · Apr 28, 2017

BigGully said:
Yours clearly isnt an accurate assessment on these growth figures, you are gleefully implying it shows the UK's economy is beginning to fail, but if you care to be more balanced you could quite easily use the same data to offer something far more optimistic, personally commenting on one set of quarterly economic data unlessit is quite extreme is a pointless exercise.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39743129

I agree. Quoting figures in isolation is fairly meaningless. But [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] provided context. Under May growth has dropped 1.6 points to a very low 0.3%. I'm sorry but being objective I struggle to see anything optimistic here other than an opportunity in June to give May, the chief architect of this, the boot.

GT49er · Apr 28, 2017

Herr Tubthumper said:
Which perfectly backs up my point. 1.9 last year, 0.3 now. The Tories, which in the context of now, the election and this thread is the current May led party, can't be trusted.

It's all the fault of the Tories now, is it? Funny, I was sure you were blaming any financial downturns entirely on Brexit.

Herr Tubthumper · Apr 28, 2017

GT49er said:
It's all the fault of the Tories now, is it? Funny, I was sure you were blaming any financial downturns entirely on Brexit.

The Tories called the referendum so whichever way you look at it, it's their mess.

Herr Tubthumper · Apr 28, 2017

Guinness Boy said:
I'm not sure I'm "right of centre" but I am struggling with this election big time. May is one of the most unlikeable politicians I can think of, as you say, and prone to change her mind every thirty seconds. Her only answer to questions seems to be to repeat the words "strong" and "stable" until they become meaningless. I've never really been one for the Tories either. However....

Firstly I would not trust Corbyn to run a bath, let alone a country. Maybe May's mantra is to highlight further that the country would be weak and unstable under him and I believe it would. That probably leaves me with the Lib Dems but I can't help but think of them as the party of Bellotti and Baker. Plus my sitting MP, Peter Kyle, has just sent round leaflets that basically completely distance him from the Labour leader, emphasise that he's pro-Remain and ask people to vote for him on his personal record. Then there's the Greens. Some are good. Some are mad as a box full of frogs. I'm not sure which we'll get standing here.

My thoughts at the moment are either to vote for Kyle based on his pro-remain, anti-Corbyn stance and hope that he's there to help the PLP clear up the mess when Corbyn's Labour are all but wiped out or to go with a wasted vote for the Lib Dems in the hope that a large popular vote for them in the election across the country will take the edges off a hard Brexit.

But either way - given the Lib Dems aren't going to take power - I will be staying up late on election night hoping for a victory by a party I cannot stand led by a woman I find hideous because the alternative, to me, is unthinkable.

Coalition of the others?

Same boat as you re Hove. Really not sure what to do yet.

Bozza · Apr 28, 2017

Herr Tubthumper said:
I agree. Quoting figures in isolation is fairly meaningless. But [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] provided context. Under May growth has dropped 1.6 points to a very low 0.3%. I'm sorry but being objective I struggle to see anything optimistic here other than an opportunity in June to give May, the chief architect of this, the boot.

My 7-y-o would do a better job of debating this than you. Seriously.

0.3% was growth over a quarter. 1.8% was growth over a year.

In Q3 2016, Germany had growth of 0.1%. Given this was a quarter in the year where Germany had the largest growth in the G7 (just), I hope this will help your simple mind understand why picking a single quarter and trying to make the point you are is, frankly, stupid.

(Also: 1.8% - 0.3% = 1.5%, not 1.6%. Are you pissed or is your maths as poor as your politics?)

GT49er · Apr 28, 2017

Herr Tubthumper said:
The Tories called the referendum so whichever way you look at it, it's their mess.

Nah - the referendum was a triumph, even though the Tories didn't mean it to be. And the economy is still growing, albeit not so much, so it's not that big a crisis after all. These things fluctuate anyway, regardless of what the government does.

Happy days!

Bold Seagull · Apr 28, 2017

Bozza said:
My 7-y-o would do a better job of debating this than you. Seriously.

0.3% was growth over a quarter. 1.8% was growth over a year.

In Q3 2016, Germany had growth of 0.1%. Given this was a quarter in the year where Germany had the largest growth in the G7 (just), I hope this will help your simple mind understand why picking a single quarter and trying to make the point you are is, frankly, stupid.

(Also: 1.8% - 0.3% = 1.5%, not 1.6%. Are you pissed or is your maths as poor as your politics?)

Before using the Germans as an economic comparison, you might want to include their deficit compared to ours (when I say 'their deficit' I mean their lack of one...).

Guinness Boy · Apr 28, 2017

Herr Tubthumper said:
Coalition of the others?

Same boat as you re Hove. Really not sure what to do yet.

I'd like a coalition of the others but I can't see the momentum chaps going for it, nor the English public being amused if the SNP hold the balance of power.

Bozza · Apr 28, 2017

Bold Seagull said:
Before using the Germans as an economic comparison, you might want to include their deficit compared to ours (when I say 'their deficit' I mean their lack of one...).

[MENTION=409]Herr Tubthumper[/MENTION] was only concerned with growth, although he's illustrated he doesn't actually understand it.

I'm sure when he's eating his cornflakes sometime soon and he spies a BBC news item about deficits/surpluses he'll rush straight over here to make a complete hash of another point.

Bozza · Apr 28, 2017

Guinness Boy said:
I'd like a coalition of the others but I can't see the momentum chaps going for it, nor the English public being amused if the SNP hold the balance of power.

Indeed. The Labour bloke was an utter mess on QT last night when he congratulated a party (Lib Dems?) for not standing in a particular seat, but was asked if Labour would do the same. Muttered some shite about "being a national party" as if the Lib Dems aren't.

Soulman · Apr 28, 2017

Bozza said:
My 7-y-o would do a better job of debating this than you. Seriously.

0.3% was growth over a quarter. 1.8% was growth over a year.

In Q3 2016, Germany had growth of 0.1%. Given this was a quarter in the year where Germany had the largest growth in the G7 (just), I hope this will help your simple mind understand why picking a single quarter and trying to make the point you are is, frankly, stupid.

(Also: 1.8% - 0.3% = 1.5%, not 1.6%. Are you pissed or is your maths as poor as your politics?)

Top posting.

beorhthelm · Apr 28, 2017

Herr Tubthumper said:
Which perfectly backs up my point. 1.9 last year, 0.3 now. The Tories, which in the context of now, the election and this thread is the current May led party, can't be trusted.

Herr Tubthumper said:
I agree. Quoting figures in isolation is fairly meaningless. But [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] provided context. Under May growth has dropped 1.6 points to a very low 0.3%. I'm sorry but being objective I struggle to see anything optimistic here other than an opportunity in June to give May, the chief architect of this, the boot.

you are comparing a year (cumulative 4 quarters) to one quarter. is that because you are being disingenuous to make a point or dont understand the economic data?

Westdene Seagull · Apr 28, 2017

Herr Tubthumper said:
Desperate isn't a word I'd use. Do I want the Tories to fail? Difficult question as a lot of harm will be done. Do I trust them to make the right decisions on the economy? No, eye watering levels of national debt never ever seen before, tax revenues down, the plunging value of the pound and slowing economic growth suggest they're not a party to be trusted with the economy. Surely someone can do better than this piss poor performance?

Really

2000-01 358
2001-02 365.6
2002-03 372.6
2003-04 398.3
2004-05 426.5
2005-06 457.1
2006-07 487.8
2007-08 514.3
2008-09 500
2009-10 485.7
2010-11 522.4
2011-12 542.9
2012-13 550.6
2013-14 573.5
2014-15 597.1
2015-16 624.3
2016-17 657.2
2017-18 689.1

Note the only drop in tax revenues was under Labour !

BigGully · Apr 28, 2017

Bold Seagull said:
Before using the Germans as an economic comparison, you might want to include their deficit compared to ours (when I say 'their deficit' I mean their lack of one...).

Stop cherry-picking individual economic stats and post them as some flawed indicator of the UK's performance.

If you cared that much why wouldnt you at least acknowledge that the deficit is now at its lowest level since the financial crisis in 2008.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39702691

beorhthelm · Apr 28, 2017

Bozza said:
Am I the only one right of centre (but I wouldn't say absolutely right) that is somewhat surprised by the lead that the Tories and May, in particular, seem to have. I can find very little to endear me to Theresa May whatsoever. She just seems thoroughly unlikeable with no warmth of any note.

i dont trust the polls at all, as i cant see May has that much going for her. she opened the innings with a nod to "one nation" conservatism, but since then done nothing. maybe not enough time to judge, but here we are going into an election and i dont know what May is going to be about. even Cameron had his "big society" mantra. so far May comes across a bureaucrat that will hold a steady line but not do much, with a Chancellor pretty much the same. there's so much opportunity to change things, create a new center-right narrative, but they seem to be obsessed with Brexit.

Westdene Seagull · Apr 28, 2017

Guinness Boy said:
I'm not sure I'm "right of centre" but I am struggling with this election big time. May is one of the most unlikeable politicians I can think of, as you say, and prone to change her mind every thirty seconds. Her only answer to questions seems to be to repeat the words "strong" and "stable" until they become meaningless. I've never really been one for the Tories either. However....

Firstly I would not trust Corbyn to run a bath, let alone a country. Maybe May's mantra is to highlight further that the country would be weak and unstable under him and I believe it would. That probably leaves me with the Lib Dems but I can't help but think of them as the party of Bellotti and Baker. Plus my sitting MP, Peter Kyle, has just sent round leaflets that basically completely distance him from the Labour leader, emphasise that he's pro-Remain and ask people to vote for him on his personal record. Then there's the Greens. Some are good. Some are mad as a box full of frogs. I'm not sure which we'll get standing here.

My thoughts at the moment are either to vote for Kyle based on his pro-remain, anti-Corbyn stance and hope that he's there to help the PLP clear up the mess when Corbyn's Labour are all but wiped out or to go with a wasted vote for the Lib Dems in the hope that a large popular vote for them in the election across the country will take the edges off a hard Brexit.

But either way - given the Lib Dems aren't going to take power - I will be staying up late on election night hoping for a victory by a party I cannot stand led by a woman I find hideous because the alternative, to me, is unthinkable.

Voting in Hove is going to be difficult ( especially for a Brexiter like me ). Re your statement about the Greens - I'm afraid we've been lumbered with one of those mad frogs - Phélim Mac Cafferty. A completely disagreeable individual.

Guinness Boy · Apr 28, 2017

Westdene Seagull said:
Voting in Hove is going to be difficult ( especially for a Brexiter like me ). Re your statement about the Greens - I'm afraid we've been lumbered with one of those mad frogs - Phélim Mac Cafferty. A completely disagreeable individual.

Shit. I'm out.

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