86 Points will be enough

Stato · Apr 7, 2017

As it will take Huddersfield at least 4 matches to reach 86 points and we also play 4 matches in that time, winning at least one of our next four would mean that, if it does turn out that 86 points is enough, we will only discover that sometime after we have already achieved it.

Nathan · Apr 7, 2017

symyjym said:
Based on the principle that over the season the top teams average 2 points a game it is quite possible that Huddersfield will end on 91 and us on 95.

Our average is 2.075 and Huddersfield's is 1.89. I wouldn't take 92 points if it was put on the table, and 95 could be threatened by a form swing to above or below average.

The fat lady is getting out of the bath.

WTF, I would. 92 points for us would mean Huddersfield have to win 6 and draw 1 of the 7 games they have left to play. They have won 3 of their last 7.

symyjym · Apr 7, 2017

Nathan said:
WTF, I would. 92 points for us would mean Huddersfield have to win 6 and draw 1 of the 7 games they have left to play. They have won 3 of their last 7.

Yep, I thought they were on 77 but they are 74. With an average of 2 points a game they will finish on 88 not 91.

dazzer6666 · Apr 7, 2017

Be glorious to win the next 4 to seal it and not have to think about it any more.......then go all out in the last 2 for the title with no pressure.

KingKev · Apr 7, 2017

At least 88...

saafend_seagull · Apr 7, 2017

Stato said:
As it will take Huddersfield at least 4 matches to reach 86 points and we also play 4 matches in that time, winning at least one of our next four would mean that, if it does turn out that 86 points is enough, we will only discover that sometime after we have already achieved it.

Why? Huddersfield could lose the next four games.

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bobby baxter · Apr 7, 2017

Huddersfield have shown throughout the season they are, like us, a very good side, recent results have been their blip. Although improbable, they are capable of a six game winning run. We need to keep winning.

Stato · Apr 7, 2017

saafend_seagull said:
Why? Huddersfield could lose the next four games.

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The point was that I would hope we had reached or surpassed 86 before it is mathematically possible for them to reach it or blow it. We need 3 points. It could happen today for us, but the earliest we could find out it was definitely enough would be 22 April.

Sirius76 · Apr 8, 2017

On second thoughts, I may have slightly exaggerated the amount needed :lolol:

Sirius76 · Apr 8, 2017

Wagner today again: "We have six - and hopefully more - very important games still to play."

Audax · Apr 10, 2017

Thunder Bolt said:
That's because they now have Rowett as manager.

Indeed. Revised my spreadsheet to use most recent 5 as the form guide. We're that late in the season, and with enough variation in form, that it makes sense to use the shorter period.

I'm now comparing us vs Hudds and us vs Newcastle for the run home.

Both Hudds and Newcastle, on full-season results, have harder opponents than us remaining:

(Average season ppg for remaining opponents)
Newcastle - 1.43ppg
Huddersfield - 1.40ppg
Brighton - 1.23ppg

But when you look at last 5 games form, it gets topped on its head:

(Average last-5 ppg for remaining opponents)
Brighton - 1.76ppg
Huddersfield - 1.60ppg
Newcastle - 1.13ppg

On paper, the tough games for each team look like:

Brighton - Wolves (A), Villa (A).
Huddersfield - Derby (A), Wolves (A)
Newcastle - Cardiff (A)

I think Huddersfield aren't going to put us under any pressure from here. They'll drop points somewhere, and we should easily pick up the points we need to see them off.

The juicy thing to watch now is the title chase. At the moment, the advantage is ours, but to me it looks like Newcastle have the easier games remaining. 3 at home, and generally against opponents who aren't hitting peak form (Preston and Cardiff with 8 points from 5, compared to us having Wolves with 12, Bristol with 9, and Villa with a chunky 13).

Be prepared for a rollercoaster ride over 5 games, I reckon - prospects are good for lead position to change a couple more times before we get to the end. Villa on the last day could be the title decided, and looks like it'll be tough to negotiate.

Triggaaar · Apr 10, 2017

Audax said:
On paper, the tough games for each team look like:

Brighton - Wolves (A), Villa (A).
Huddersfield - Derby (A), Wolves (A)
Newcastle - Cardiff (A)

You're not counting Norwich away as a tough game for us?

spence · Apr 10, 2017

Any away game is tough unless you are playing Rotherham.

So Newcastle at Ipswich won't be easy either. That could very easily end in a draw.

GT49er · Apr 10, 2017

Well, now we've got 86 points, do I think it's enough? To be honest, no, not really - I certainly wouldn't want to risk losing our last five games in the hope of hanging on to 2nd. spot.
Two wins and a draw mathematically guarantees promotion; could be less as Huddersfield drop points (if they do) - but right now, no, I'm definitely not settling for 86 points!

Audax · Apr 10, 2017

Triggaaar said:
You're not counting Norwich away as a tough game for us?

Not yet. They're blowing so hot and cold it'll depend on which Norwich shows up. Also note that I said "on paper" - I've deliberately only looked at some stats to draw up that post. Excel doesn't do subjective :laugh:

.

Norwich has the potential to be the toughest game remaining (other than Villa). But they could equally be a pushover. I'm also a little worried about Bristol City. On paper, we should walk it - we're at home, they're in a relegation battle. But they've also been showing some good fight without getting the results, and I think they're likely to get a result or two before the end.

My opinion, though, I think Newcastle's run in could be tougher than it looks. Despite most of their opponents not being at peak performance, they pretty much all have the potential to take points away from Newcastle - there's no walkovers in there. Ipswich are their easiest game on paper, at a 1.20ppg for the season and just 1.00ppg over the last 5, however they're still a threat.

est.83 · Apr 10, 2017

Bear in mind that Newcastle's home record is 13W 2D 5L so it is not like they are quaranteed to win all their home games.

RandyWanger · Apr 10, 2017

GT49er said:
Well, now we've got 86 points, do I think it's enough? To be honest, no, not really - I certainly wouldn't want to risk losing our last five games in the hope of hanging on to 2nd. spot.
Two wins and a draw mathematically guarantees promotion; could be less as Huddersfield drop points (if they do) - but right now, no, I'm definitely not settling for 86 points!

No, and I don't think Chris and the team will be thinking 86 is enough either. Sure they'll be playing them all like it's a cup final. Exciting stuff this. Friday night was buzzing, I won't be at Wolves but can't wait to be back at the Amex.

dazzer6666 · Apr 10, 2017

GT49er said:
Well, now we've got 86 points, do I think it's enough? To be honest, no, not really - I certainly wouldn't want to risk losing our last five games in the hope of hanging on to 2nd. spot.
Two wins and a draw mathematically guarantees promotion; could be less as Huddersfield drop points (if they do) - but right now, no, I'm definitely not settling for 86 points!

Interesting point though - thread was only started 5 weeks ago, and we've got that 86 with 5 games left. Incredible really.

spence · Apr 10, 2017

HantsSeagull said:
i really cant see 86 being enough

You might want to retract that

Audax · Apr 10, 2017

GT49er said:
Well, now we've got 86 points, do I think it's enough? To be honest, no, not really - I certainly wouldn't want to risk losing our last five games in the hope of hanging on to 2nd. spot.
Two wins and a draw mathematically guarantees promotion; could be less as Huddersfield drop points (if they do) - but right now, no, I'm definitely not settling for 86 points!

Yes, two wins and a draw mathematically seals it. But two wins is all we need in the real world, unless the world gets turned upside down.

I know it's mathematically possible for Hudds to beat us on GD, but it's not realistic. We're 30 to the good on them, with 11 games to play between us. Worst case scenario is that we lose all 5, and Hudds win 4 and lose 2 (because draws don't help them). If we lost all five by a score of 3-0 our GD would drop from +34 to +19. Hudds then need to gain 16; if their two losses are 1-0, that makes 18 needed from the 4 wins (two 5-0 and two 4-0).

The other worst case is Hudds win all 6 of their remaining games, while we win 2 and lose 3. Assume the two we win are 1-0, and the three we lose are 5-0. That leaves us with a 21 GD at season end. Hudds, from their 6 games, would need to gain 18 goals - so 3-0 for all six games.

Is it mathematically possible for Hudds to overtake our GD? Yes. Is it plausible for Hudds to even get close to our GD? No way.

GD is not going to be relevant in deciding who gets auto, other than if Hudds can tie either us or Newcastle then Hudds will miss out on GD same as we did last year.

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