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Run in analysis from Experimental 361



Surf's Up

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2011
10,147
Here
Last night's result just goes to prove the impossibility of prediction.
 


erkan

Well-known member
Dec 9, 2004
896
Eastbourne
Last night's result just goes to prove the impossibility of prediction.
Which result? 361 correctly predicted Bristol's win against overrated Huddersfield...

No model will predict very accurately but they do OK.

As commented elsewhere it seems Reading got away with it again a bit last night - but tha' fooball, ees not eessy...

Sent from my SM-G357FZ using Tapatalk
 


neilbard

Hedging up
Oct 8, 2013
6,245
Tyringham
3867DCF6-DCDE-471E-B319-4210E8348E05.jpg
 




Coldeanseagull

Opinionated
Mar 13, 2013
7,716
Coldean
These sort of things go a long way to keeping us all sane and composed. If we didn't have the distraction of reading spreadsheets, form books and computer analysis, the apprehension of waiting for a 5.30pm kickoff would lead to a greater majority inbibing to excess and therefore unable to fully enjoy the game
 




Peter Grummit

Well-known member
Oct 13, 2004
6,769
Lewes
Swapped messages with Ben who runs @Experimental361. His expected goals model projects that we have an 89.8% chance of taking the title.

PG
 




hans kraay fan club

The voice of reason.
Helpful Moderator
Mar 16, 2005
61,094
Chandlers Ford
Swapped messages with Ben who runs @Experimental361. His expected goals model projects that we have an 89.8% chance of taking the title.

PG


I have it somewhere roughly like this:

For the Albion to NOT clinch the title, needs us to fail to beat Bristol City (at about 40% probability) and to fail to beat Villa (at about 60%) and Newcastle to beat Cardiff (70%) and Barnsley (85%).

0.4 x 0.6 x 0.7 x 0.85 = 14% probability of ALL those things happening, thus 86% chance of getting over the line :thumbsup:
 




erkan

Well-known member
Dec 9, 2004
896
Eastbourne
I have it somewhere roughly like this:

For the Albion to NOT clinch the title, needs us to fail to beat Bristol City (at about 40% probability) and to fail to beat Villa (at about 60%) and Newcastle to beat Cardiff (70%) and Barnsley (85%).

0.4 x 0.6 x 0.7 x 0.85 = 14% probability of ALL those things happening, thus 86% chance of getting over the line [emoji106]
60% chance of beating Bristol is low. What % of all our home games against the bottom half have we won so far?
 




Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
49,990
Goldstone
Not a bad percentage chance, PG... let's hope it holds true. I would seriously LOVE IT if we clinched it at the Brizzle game...
I would LOVE IT if we clinched it on Friday. Although I'd be delighted with a draw on Friday.
 






Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
49,990
Goldstone
Good point - would be a tad calmer going into Saturday's game if it was already in the bag, although the celebrations might not be as marked...
A draw on Friday would mean we just need a point, but we're still not champions before the game. Can we all agree on a draw on Friday being a good thing?
 






whitelion

New member
Dec 16, 2003
12,828
Southwick
A draw on Friday would mean we just need a point, but we're still not champions before the game. Can we all agree on a draw on Friday being a good thing?

I'm not fussed either way - a win against City and/or against Villa shouldn't be beyond us.
 







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