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Gov't: 'No case' for BML2



The Large One

Who's Next?
Jul 7, 2003
52,343
97.2FM
http://www.brightonandhoveindepende...o-progress-second-brighton-mainline-1-7847646

A study looking at a second Brighton Mainline has concluded there is currently ‘no case’ for the Government to take the scheme forward.

Campaigners been lobbying the Government to re-open the railway line through Uckfield to increase capacity as a way of easing congestion between the coastal city and London.

The BML2 Consortium is proposing 20km of new railway between Falmer, Lewes and Uckfield, 38km of restored rail line between Uckfield and Hever, and 25km of tunnelled railway linking the whole line to Canary Wharf and Stratford International, representing an investment of more than £6 billion in the South East.

The Government has published the London and South Coast Rail Corridor Study today (Thursday March 2), which investigated the case for improvements to rail links between London and the Sussex Coast.

Although rail minister Paul Maynard said there was ‘no case’ for the Government to take the projects forward, he did suggest they could be delivered through private funding or by the area accepting significant extra housing or commercial developments in the future.

Green MP for Brighton Pavilion Caroline Lucas said: “This report is a slap in the face for long suffering passengers. We need real investment in our railways to solve the ongoing crisis.”

The report concludes: “As long as the BML Upgrade proceeds in Network Rail’s proposed timescales, there is no need in capacity terms to start planning for new line solutions (including BML2) for at least 10-20 years.

”There is a poor transport case for reopening the Lewes-Uckfield line, and for introducing National Rail services between Eridge and Tunbridge Wells. For these schemes to proceed, they would need to rely on harnessing the economic growth agenda, not just traditional transport benefits.

“The local authorities and Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs) need to lead on determining how improved regional connections, centred on Lewes-Uckfield, can contribute to economic growth, and how this investment can be funded.”

In a letter to stakeholders Mr Maynard said: “Importantly, the study also examines the case for re-instating formerly closed rail lines (such as the line between Lewes and Uckfield, closed in 1969) and building new links (including the ‘BML2’ concept, which would see a largely new line between the Sussex Coast, central London via Canary Wharf and on to Stansted).

“At present, the study concludes there is no case for the government to take forward development of either of these schemes. It does acknowledge, however, that other interested parties, including local authorities and Local Enterprise Partnerships, may wish to progress work to improve the viability of such schemes.

“One way that this could be achieved is through local communities accepting significant additional local housing and commercial development.

“In addition, the Transport Secretary has met with promoters of the BML2 concept and encouraged them to continue to develop their proposals for it to be delivered and funded privately.”
 


beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,264
hardly a surprise. a fraction of the amount spent on existing line would be better investment (if only we'd got Gatwick expansion...)
 


Brovion

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 6, 2003
19,322
More bad news coming after yesterday's knockback. When the Victorian railway tunnels collapse and there is no spare inch of road space left - then do you think we'll get some investment?
 




Brovion

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 6, 2003
19,322
hardly a surprise. a fraction of the amount spent on existing line would be better investment (if only we'd got Gatwick expansion...)

Eh? The Gatwick expansion on its own would make the matter worse not better. And how would you make the current BML better?
 




Tom Hark Preston Park

Will Post For Cash
Jul 6, 2003
69,879
More bad news coming after yesterday's knockback. When the Victorian railway tunnels collapse and there is no spare inch of road space left - then do you think we'll get some investment?

This. How long before the Balcombe Tunnel or the viaduct just north of Haywards Heath start to become unsafe? First time either of these things happen, or one of a dozen other Single Points of Failure, er, fail, then BML1 is completely snookered longtime.
 


The Oldman

I like the Hat
NSC Patreon
Jul 12, 2003
7,102
In the shadow of Seaford Head
The Transport lot at Whitehall do not seem to like Sussex. Our roads and railways are awful but there seems little prospect of any real improvement. As TH,PP says it will only take one part of the infrastructure to give way and we will grind to a halt.
 


Wrong-Direction

Well-known member
Mar 10, 2013
13,395
Shock horror, money not spent on things that are needed.

Sent from my SM-A310F using Tapatalk
 




vegster

Sanity Clause
May 5, 2008
27,867
This. How long before the Balcombe Tunnel or the viaduct just north of Haywards Heath start to become unsafe? First time either of these things happen, or one of a dozen other Single Points of Failure, er, fail, then BML1 is completely snookered longtime.

This !..... there are too many choke points by road and rail round here, Arundel is nightmare but hopefully sorted in the next 5 years, the rail line to London is a disaster waiting to happen and we need another major bridging point across the Adur as it only takes a minor accident to cause gridlock for three miles east and west of the river as traffic has to go to the one remaining route.
 


crookie

Well-known member
Jun 14, 2013
3,305
Back in Sussex
Shock horror, money not spent on things that are needed.

Sent from my SM-A310F using Tapatalk

Blowing all the budget on HS2, that could well prove to be a massive white elephant. This scheme on the other hand would improve thousands of peoples lives for a fraction of the cost

Train direct from T Wells to Falmer would be brilliant
 


vegster

Sanity Clause
May 5, 2008
27,867
The Transport lot at Whitehall do not seem to like Sussex. Our roads and railways are awful but there seems little prospect of any real improvement. As TH,PP says it will only take one part of the infrastructure to give way and we will grind to a halt.

And we are, apparently, the fifth biggest economy in the world !
 




Badger

NOT the Honey Badger
NSC Patreon
May 8, 2007
12,749
Toronto
To be fair, they're TERRIBLE at running trains on the current BML. They'd probably be just as TERRIBLE running more trains on BML2.
 


Yoda

English & European
Although rail minister Paul Maynard said there was ‘no case’ for the Government to take the projects forward, he did suggest they could be delivered through private funding or by the area accepting significant extra housing or commercial developments in the future.

So in other words, an already over crowded South East needs MORE housing to make an already over crowded transport system buckle for them to even consider the project?
 


Tom Hark Preston Park

Will Post For Cash
Jul 6, 2003
69,879
And we are, apparently, the fifth biggest economy in the world !

Commuting between Brighton and London just seems like less and less a sustainable option anymore, despite the pitifully small distance in a straight line between the two points. Almost feel genuinely sorry for the DFLs.
 




Gwylan

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
31,323
Uffern
The Transport lot at Whitehall do not seem to like Sussex. Our roads and railways are awful but there seems little prospect of any real improvement.

The trouble is that the whole area is pretty much safe Tory territory: Labour governments won't help because they're Tories ... and Tory governments won't help because these people's votes are in the bag anyway
 


Uter

Well-known member
Aug 5, 2008
1,474
The land of chocolate
Here is the report for anyone interested:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/london-and-south-coast-rail-corridor-study

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The corridor connecting London and the south coast is a critical transport link for supporting the region’s daily life and economy. Base passenger demand across the corridor is forecast to double in the next 40 years, even if no further improvements are made beyond those already committed in Control Period 5 (CP5, 2014-2019). But known network infrastructure constraints already compromise the ability of its train and infrastructure operators to deliver an efficient and reliable service for the public.

In this context we were asked to carry out a strategic study into improving rail links between London and the south coast. This was targeted at the Brighton Main Line (BML) corridor, upgrades to existing routes, and the ‘BML2’ proposal. We were also asked to re-assess proposals for reopening the rail link between Lewes and Uckfield.
Our study has concluded that the key strategic priority for this corridor is to pursue Network Rail’s upgrade proposals for the existing Brighton Main Line. Our analysis has shown that no other proposals would deliver a similar level of improvements in similar timescales.

The early parts of Network Rail’s upgrade package should be progressed for implementation during a window of opportunity in CP6 (2019-2024). These interventions, centred on the Croydon area bottleneck, form the bedrock for future incremental capacity improvements that will create 50% more peak hour fast-line train paths into London. Our analysis supports Network Rail’s view that the full upgrade package will enable expected demand to be met in the corridor for at least 30 years, and perhaps through to the late 2050s, dependent on the scale of housing development in the corridor.

A CP6 implementation timing of Network Rail’s proposals is consistent with our demand forecasts, but this timing is also opportunity-based. In particular, implementing the key elements of a BML upgrade in this timescale would avoid a likely loss to redevelopment of the critical land in the central Croydon area, which is necessary to upgrade the railway. It would also facilitate major synergies in aligning well with Network Rail’s signalling system renewals programme, the timescale for which is driven by asset condition.

Provided the BML upgrade package is progressed in line with the timeframes Network Rail has indicated, our study indicates that there is no need in capacity terms to start planning for a new line now, or to pursue the full ‘BML2’ scheme that incorporates a link between Croydon, Lewisham, Stratford and beyond. New lines would be costly and, whilst providing benefits, do not serve an existing strategic need. Furthermore, investment in reliability and resilience for the corridor should be focused on BML itself, not diversionary routes via Uckfield or Arundel.

Our study has found there is a poor transport case for reopening the Lewes-Uckfield line, and for National Rail services between Eridge and Tunbridge Wells. However, a stronger case could potentially be built by harnessing the economic growth agenda, rather than just traditional transport benefits. For these schemes to proceed, local authorities and Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs) need to lead on determining how improved regional connections, centred on Lewes-Uckfield, can contribute to economic growth, and how this investment can be funded.
 


studio150

Well-known member
Jul 30, 2011
29,553
On the Border
This. How long before the Balcombe Tunnel or the viaduct just north of Haywards Heath start to become unsafe? First time either of these things happen, or one of a dozen other Single Points of Failure, er, fail, then BML1 is completely snookered longtime.

As evidenced by the line collapse in the Waterhall area some years ago which just shut the entire line until fully repaired, with the only options to London via Littlehampton or Replacement Bus

Same with the more recent Croydon landslide
 






Badger

NOT the Honey Badger
NSC Patreon
May 8, 2007
12,749
Toronto
A CP6 implementation timing of Network Rail’s proposals is consistent with our demand forecasts, but this timing is also opportunity-based. In particular, implementing the key elements of a BML upgrade in this timescale would avoid a likely loss to redevelopment of the critical land in the central Croydon area, which is necessary to upgrade the railway. It would also facilitate major synergies in aligning well with Network Rail’s signalling system renewals programme, the timescale for which is driven by asset condition.

This paragraph is a business bullshit WET DREAM.
 


Not Andy Naylor

Well-known member
Dec 12, 2007
8,787
Seven Dials
They don't care about passengers north of The Downs because their votes are already in the bag and they don't care about those of us to the south because we vote Green or Labour. So we're fecked either way.
 



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