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Remaining fixtures



pottert

New member
Aug 12, 2009
3,020
Peacehaven
I'm presuming we are now down to a 4 horse race.
Of the 3 teams with 14 games remaining.

Albion 5 games against teams in top 12
Newcastle 9 games against teams in top 12
Huddersfield 7 games against top 12

Reading have 13 games remaining

6 against top 12


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Munchkin

Well-known member
Jul 12, 2005
2,289
Littlehampton
I'm presuming we are now down to a 4 horse race.
Of the 3 teams with 14 games remaining.

Albion 5 games against teams in top 12
Newcastle 9 games against teams in top 12
Huddersfield 7 games against top 12

Reading have 13 games remaining

6 against top 12


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Irrelevant. I would argue our better performances this season have been against sides in the top 12.

Ipswich and Brentford at home were 'bankers' in some people's opinion.
 






S'hampton Seagull

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2003
6,808
Southampton
People seem to keep overlooking the potential of teams near the bottom battling relegation.
I'm not, but I would rather play teams at the bottom than those at the top.

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pottert

New member
Aug 12, 2009
3,020
Peacehaven
Irrelevant. I would argue our better performances this season have been against sides in the top 12.

Ipswich and Brentford at home were 'bankers' in some people's opinion.

No such thing as a banker in the championship.
I'm just pointing out a stat that works in our favour.
After 32 games the table doesn't lie.
The teams that have been the most consistent will be near the top & those lacking consistency near the bottom.
That's not to say that on any given day anybody can beat anybody.




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pottert

New member
Aug 12, 2009
3,020
Peacehaven
We are getting to the point of the season when there are teams that can neither go up or down,they are the teams that everybody wants to play.


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pottert

New member
Aug 12, 2009
3,020
Peacehaven
They're losers. Simples, teams at bottom win less than teams at top #believe

100%

It's beginning to look like that all of our matches against teams with something to play for will be at home except for Leeds that
Will be away.


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Sheebo

Well-known member
Jul 13, 2003
29,287
People are clambering over eachother to point out its the stage of the season where teams at the bottom can be dangerous (which we all know). So much so that they're now over compensating for that stat by saying they'd rather be playing teams at the top! Bizaare. There will be some surprisingly good / tough performances from teams down the bottom vs us but also some that crumble and we beat easily IMO. I'm talking more those final 4 home games as much as anything. It's the form table that means most before you play a team anyway for me. Right now, Newcastle couldn't wish for an easier fixture than Brizzle at home like they have tomorrow...
 


pottert

New member
Aug 12, 2009
3,020
Peacehaven
Normally there is a team fighting against relegation that puts a run together to get themselves out of it.
I don't see that this season.
Our next 3 home games will be tough against quality teams,if we can get through those intact then our last 4 should pose few problems. I think our biggest tests will be away from home.


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OzMike

Well-known member
Oct 2, 2006
12,930
Perth Australia
Funny how usually the run in to the end of the season starts at about 8 or so games to go, but considering how far we were ahead it has started at halfway through this season !
 




pottert

New member
Aug 12, 2009
3,020
Peacehaven
After Tuesdays game we will be 75% through the season


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scousefan

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2009
1,242
Liverpool
When we compare the remaining fixtures we mustn't ignore the key effect of home versus away. Huddersfields against top clubs are mainly at home, whereas Newcastle have a trio of games coming up against us, Huddersfield and Reading that are all away. (Many of these key fixtures are in the next two weeks.) Overall, our run i nis of similar difficulty to Huddersfield while Newcastle's is much harder. I saw a computer analysis that was based on calculations of average home and away records of opposition for the remaining fixtures of the top three teams. It assumed that they play like an average team (although clearly they are better). Based on the fixtures left, the final table would be :

Brighton 89 (+21)
Newcastle 86 (+17)
Huddersfield 85 (+21)

Obviously the top three are likely to do better than this, but it gives a good indication of the difficulty of the remaining 14 fixtures.
 




Rugrat

Well-known member
Mar 13, 2011
10,215
Seaford
People seem to keep overlooking the potential of teams near the bottom battling relegation.

Having the bloody barking dog going off again I'm sat fiddling fingers at unearthly hour so thought I'd try further to explode the myth :)

Looking at last year and the last 10 games played by teams in bottom half it really does demonstrate how few they win. Moreover when they do win it's generally against each other.

What this little list shows is how many games each team in the bottom half won in their last 10 fixtures. The number in brackets shows how many of those wins were against teams in the top half. So 120 games in total produced 29 wins (less than 1 in 4) and of those 29 wins only 8 were against teams in the top half.

There really is no evidence to suggest they do anything other than keep losing, or at best beating each other!!

Leeds - 3 (1)
Wolves - 2 (0)
Blackburn - 3 (1)
Forest - 2 (0)
Reading - 2 (0)
Brizzle - 4 (1)
Hudd's - 2 (0)
Fulham - 4 (2)
Rotherham - 3 (1)
Charlton - 3 (1)
MK Dons - 0 (0)
Bolton - 1 (1)
 








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